nathan

I learned so much from Sarah Paine, Professor of History and Strategy at the Naval War College. We discuss: - how continental vs maritime powers think and how this explains Xi & Putin's decisions - how a war with China over Taiwan would shake out and whether it could go nuclear - why the British Empire fell apart, why China went communist, how Hitler and Japan could have coordinated to win WW2, and whether Japanese occupation was good for Korea, Taiwan and Manchuria - plus other lessons from WW2, Cold War, and Sino-Japanese War - how to study history properly, and why leaders keep making the same mistakes If you want to learn more, check out her books - they’re some of the best military history I’ve ever read. Watch on YouTube, listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript. Timestamps (0:00:00) - Grand strategy (0:11:59) - Death ground (0:23:19) - WW1 (0:39:23) - Writing history (0:50:25) - Japan in WW2 (0:59:58) - Ukraine (1:10:50) - Japan/Germany vs Iraq/Afghanistan occupation (1:21:25) - Chinese invasion of Taiwan (1:51:26) - Communists & Axis (2:08:34) - Continental vs maritime powers This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

Here is my conversation with Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic. Dario is hilarious and has fascinating takes on what these models are doing, why they scale so well, and what it will take to align them. --- I’m running an experiment on this episode. I’m not doing an ad. Instead, I’m just going to ask you to pay for whatever value you feel you personally got out of this conversation. Pay here: https://bit.ly/3ONINtp --- Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Introduction (00:01:00) - Scaling (00:15:46) - Language (00:22:58) - Economic Usefulness (00:38:05) - Bioterrorism (00:43:35) - Cybersecurity (00:47:19) - Alignment & mechanistic interpretability (00:57:43) - Does alignment research require scale? (01:05:30) - Misuse vs misalignment (01:09:06) - What if AI goes well? (01:11:05) - China (01:15:11) - How to think about alignment (01:31:31) - Is modern security good enough? (01:36:09) - Inefficiencies in training (01:45:53) - Anthropic’s Long Term Benefit Trust (01:51:18) - Is Claude conscious? (01:56:14) - Keeping a low profile This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

A few weeks ago, I sat beside Andy Matuschak to record how he reads a textbook. Even though my own job is to learn things, I was shocked with how much more intense, painstaking, and effective his learning process was. So I asked if we could record a conversation about how he learns and a bunch of other topics: * How he identifies and interrogates his confusion (much harder than it seems, and requires an extremely effortful and slow pace) * Why memorization is essential to understanding and decision-making * How come some people (like Tyler Cowen) can integrate so much information without an explicit note taking or spaced repetition system. * How LLMs and video games will change education * How independent researchers and writers can make money * The balance of freedom and discipline in education * Why we produce fewer von Neumann-like prodigies nowadays * How multi-trillion dollar companies like Apple (where he was previously responsible for bedrock iOS features) manage to coordinate millions of different considerations (from the cost of different components to the needs of users, etc) into new products designed by 10s of 1000s of people. Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. To see Andy’s process in action, check out the video where we record him studying a quantum physics textbook, talking aloud about his thought process, and using his memory system prototype to internalize the material. You can check out his website and personal notes, and follow him on Twitter. Cometeer Visit cometeer.com/lunar for $20 off your first order on the best coffee of your life! If you want to sponsor an episode, contact me at dwarkesh.sanjay.patel@gmail.com. Timestamps (00:00:52) - Skillful reading (00:02:30) - Do people care about understanding? (00:06:52) - Structuring effective self-teaching (00:16:37) - Memory and forgetting (00:33:10) - Andy’s memory practice (00:40:07) - Intellectual stamina (00:44:27) - New media for learning (video, games, streaming) (00:58:51) - Schools are designed for the median student (01:05:12) - Is learning inherently miserable? (01:11:57) - How Andy would structure his kids’ education (01:30:00) - The usefulness of hypertext (01:41:22) - How computer tools enable iteration (01:50:44) - Monetizing public work (02:08:36) - Spaced repetition (02:10:16) - Andy’s personal website and notes (02:12:44) - Working at Apple (02:19:25) - Spaced repetition 2 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

The second half of my 7 hour conversation with Carl Shulman is out! My favorite part! And the one that had the biggest impact on my worldview. Here, Carl lays out how an AI takeover might happen: * AI can threaten mutually assured destruction from bioweapons, * use cyber attacks to take over physical infrastructure, * build mechanical armies, * spread seed AIs we can never exterminate, * offer tech and other advantages to collaborating countries, etc Plus we talk about a whole bunch of weird and interesting topics which Carl has thought about: * what is the far future best case scenario for humanity * what it would look like to have AI make thousands of years of intellectual progress in a month * how do we detect deception in superhuman models * does space warfare favor defense or offense * is a Malthusian state inevitable in the long run * why markets haven't priced in explosive economic growth * & much more Carl also explains how he developed such a rigorous, thoughtful, and interdisciplinary model of the biggest problems in the world. Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Catch part 1 here 80,000 hours This episode is sponsored by 80,000 hours. To get their free career guide (and to help out this podcast), please visit 80000hours.org/lunar. 80,000 hours is without any close second the best resource to learn about the world’s most pressing problems and how you can solve them. If this conversation has got you concerned, and you want to get involved, then check out the excellent 80,000 hours guide on how to help with AI risk. To advertise on The Lunar Society, contact me at dwarkesh.sanjay.patel@gmail.com. Timestamps (00:02:50) - AI takeover via cyber or bio (00:34:30) - Can we coordinate against AI? (00:55:52) - Human vs AI colonizers (01:06:58) - Probability of AI takeover (01:23:59) - Can we detect deception? (01:49:28) - Using AI to solve coordination problems (01:58:04) - Partial alignment (02:13:44) - AI far future (02:25:07) - Markets & other evidence (02:35:29) - Day in the life of Carl Shulman (02:49:08) - Space warfare, Malthusian long run, & other rapid fireTranscript This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

In terms of the depth and range of topics, this episode is the best I’ve done. No part of my worldview is the same after talking with Carl Shulman. He's the most interesting intellectual you've never heard of. We ended up talking for 8 hours, so I'm splitting this episode into 2 parts. This part is about Carl’s model of an intelligence explosion, which integrates everything from: * how fast algorithmic progress & hardware improvements in AI are happening, * what primate evolution suggests about the scaling hypothesis, * how soon before AIs could do large parts of AI research themselves, and whether there would be faster and faster doublings of AI researchers, * how quickly robots produced from existing factories could take over the economy. We also discuss the odds of a takeover based on whether the AI is aligned before the intelligence explosion happens, and Carl explains why he’s more optimistic than Eliezer. The next part, which I’ll release next week, is about all the specific mechanisms of an AI takeover, plus a whole bunch of other galaxy brain stuff. Maybe 3 people in the world have thought as rigorously as Carl about so many interesting topics. This was a huge pleasure. Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Intro (00:01:32) - Intelligence Explosion (00:18:03) - Can AIs do AI research? (00:39:00) - Primate evolution (01:03:30) - Forecasting AI progress (01:34:20) - After human-level AGI (02:08:39) - AI takeover scenarios This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

It was a tremendous honor & pleasure to interview Richard Rhodes, Pulitzer Prize winning author of The Making of the Atomic Bomb We discuss - similarities between AI progress & Manhattan Project (developing a powerful, unprecedented, & potentially apocalyptic technology within an uncertain arms-race situation) - visiting starving former Soviet scientists during fall of Soviet Union - whether Oppenheimer was a spy, & consulting on the Nolan movie - living through WW2 as a child - odds of nuclear war in Ukraine, Taiwan, Pakistan, & North Korea - how the US pulled of such a massive secret wartime scientific & industrial project Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (0:00:00) - Oppenheimer movie (0:06:22) - Was the bomb inevitable? (0:29:10) - Firebombing vs nuclear vs hydrogen bombs (0:49:44) - Stalin & the Soviet program (1:08:24) - Deterrence, disarmament, North Korea, Taiwan (1:33:12) - Oppenheimer as lab director (1:53:40) - AI progress vs Manhattan Project (1:59:50) - Living through WW2 (2:16:45) - Secrecy (2:26:34) - Wisdom & war This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

For 4 hours, I tried to come up reasons for why AI might not kill us all, and Eliezer Yudkowsky explained why I was wrong. We also discuss his call to halt AI, why LLMs make alignment harder, what it would take to save humanity, his millions of words of sci-fi, and much more. If you want to get to the crux of the conversation, fast forward to 2:35:00 through 3:43:54. Here we go through and debate the main reasons I still think doom is unlikely. Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (0:00:00) - TIME article (0:09:06) - Are humans aligned? (0:37:35) - Large language models (1:07:15) - Can AIs help with alignment? (1:30:17) - Society’s response to AI (1:44:42) - Predictions (or lack thereof) (1:56:55) - Being Eliezer (2:13:06) - Othogonality (2:35:00) - Could alignment be easier than we think? (3:02:15) - What will AIs want? (3:43:54) - Writing fiction & whether rationality helps you win This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

I went over to the OpenAI offices in San Fransisco to ask the Chief Scientist and cofounder of OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever, about: * time to AGI * leaks and spies * what's after generative models * post AGI futures * working with Microsoft and competing with Google * difficulty of aligning superhuman AI Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (00:00) - Time to AGI (05:57) - What’s after generative models? (10:57) - Data, models, and research (15:27) - Alignment (20:53) - Post AGI Future (26:56) - New ideas are overrated (36:22) - Is progress inevitable? (41:27) - Future Breakthroughs This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

It is said that the two greatest problems of history are: how to account for the rise of Rome, and how to account for her fall. If so, then the volcanic ashes spewed by Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD - which entomb the cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum in South Italy - hold history’s greatest prize. For beneath those ashes lies the only salvageable library from the classical world. Nat Friedman was the CEO of Github form 2018 to 2021. Before that, he started and sold two companies - Ximian and Xamarin. He is also the founder of AI Grant and California YIMBY. And most recently, he has created and funded the Vesuvius Challenge - a million dollar prize for reading an unopened Herculaneum scroll for the very first time. If we can decipher these scrolls, we may be able to recover lost gospels, forgotten epics, and even missing works of Aristotle. We also discuss the future of open source and AI, running Github and building Copilot, and why EMH is a lie. Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (0:00:00) - Vesuvius Challenge (0:30:00) - Finding points of leverage (0:37:39) - Open Source in AI (0:40:32) - Github Acquisition (0:50:18) - Copilot origin Story (1:11:47) - Nat.org (1:32:56) - Questions from Twitter This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

I flew out to Chicago to interview Brett Harrison, who is the former President of FTX US President and founder of Architect. In his first longform interview since the fall of FTX, he speak in great detail about his entire tenure there and about SBF’s dysfunctional leadership. He talks about how the inner circle of Gary Wang, Nishad Singh, and SBF mismanaged the company, controlled the codebase, got distracted by media, and even threatened him for his letter of resignation. In what was my favorite part of the interview, we also discuss his insights about the financial system from his decades of experience in the world's largest HFT firms. And we talk about Brett's new startup, Architect, as well as the general state of crypto post-FTX. Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (0:00:00) - Passive investing & HFT hacks (0:08:30) - Is Finance Zero-Sum? (0:18:38) - Interstellar Markets & Periodic Auctions (0:23:10) - Hiring & Programming at Jane Street (0:32:09) - Quant Culture (0:42:10) - FTX - Meeting Sam, Joining FTX US (0:58:20) - FTX - Accomplishments, Beginnings of Trouble (1:08:11) - FTX - SBF's Dysfunctional Leadership (1:26:53) - FTX - Alameda (1:33:50) - FTX - Leaving FTX, SBF"s Threats (1:45:45) - FTX - Collapse (1:53:10) - FTX - Lessons (2:04:34) - FTX - Regulators, & FTX Mafia (2:15:42) - Architect.xyz (2:30:10) - Institutional Interest & Uses of Crypto This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

My podcast with the brilliant Marc Andreessen is out! We discuss: * how AI will revolutionize software * whether NFTs are useless, & whether he should be funding flying cars instead * a16z's biggest vulnerabilities * the future of fusion, education, Twitter, venture, managerialism, & big tech Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (0:00:17) - Chewing glass (0:04:21) - AI (0:06:42) - Regrets (0:08:51) - Managerial capitalism (0:18:43) - 100 year fund (0:22:15) - Basic research (0:27:07) - $100b fund? (0:30:32) - Crypto debate (0:43:29) - Future of VC (0:50:20) - Founders (0:56:42) - a16z vulnerabilities (1:01:28) - Monetizing Twitter (1:07:09) - Future of big tech (1:14:07) - Is VC Overstaffed? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

Garett Jones is an economist at George Mason University and the author of The Cultural Transplant, Hive Mind, and 10% Less Democracy. This episode was fun and interesting throughout! He explains: * Why national IQ matters * How migrants bring their values to their new countries * Why we should have less democracy * How the Chinese are an unstoppable global force for free markets Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Intro (00:01:08) - Migrants Change Countries with Culture or Votes? (00:09:15) - Impact of Immigrants on Markets & Corruption (00:12:02) - 50% Open Borders? (00:16:54) - Chinese are Unstoppable Capitalists (00:21:39) - Innovation & Immigrants (00:24:53) - Open Borders for Migrants Equivalent to Americans? (00:28:54) - Let's Ignore Side Effects? (00:30:25) - Are Poor Countries Stuck? (00:32:26) - How Can Effective Altruists Increase National IQ (00:39:13) - Clone a million John von Neumann? (00:44:39) - Genetic Selection for IQ (00:47:02) - Democracy, Fed, FDA, & Presidential Power (00:49:42) - EU is a force for good? (00:55:12) - Why is America More Libertarian Than Median Voter? (00:56:19) - Is Ethnic Conflict a Short Run Problem? (00:59:38) - Bond Holder Democracy (01:04:57) - Mormonism (01:08:52) - Garett Jones's Immigration System (01:10:12) - Interviewing SBF This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

One of my best episodes ever. Lars Doucet is the author of Land is a Big Deal, a book about Georgism which has been praised by Vitalik Buterin, Scott Alexander, and Noah Smith. Sam Altman is the lead investor in his new startup, ValueBase. Talking with Lars completely changed how I think about who creates value in the world and who leeches off it. We go deep into the weeds on Georgism: * Why do even the wealthiest places in the world have poverty and homelessness, and why do rents increase as fast as wages? * Why are land-owners able to extract the profits that rightly belong to labor and capital? * How would taxing the value of land alleviate speculation, NIMBYism, and income and sales taxes? Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow Lars on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Intro (00:01:11) - Georgism (00:03:16) - Metaverse Housing Crises (00:07:10) - Tax Leisure? (00:13:53) - Speculation & Frontiers (00:24:33) - Social Value of Search (00:33:13) - Will Georgism Destroy The Economy? (00:38:51) - The Economics of San Francisco (00:43:31) - Transfer from Landowners to Google? (00:46:47) - Asian Tigers and Land Reform (00:51:19) - Libertarian Georgism (00:55:42) - Crypto (00:57:16) - Transitioning to Georgism (01:02:56) - Lars's Startup & Land Assessment (01:15:12) - Big Tech (01:20:50) - Space (01:23:05) - Copyright (01:25:02) - Politics of Georgism (01:33:10) - Someone Is Always Collecting Rents This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

Holden Karnofsky is the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell. He is also the author of one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, Cold Takes. We discuss: * Are we living in the most important century? * Does he regret OpenPhil’s 30 million dollar grant to OpenAI in 2016? * How does he think about AI, progress, digital people, & ethics? Highly recommend! Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Timestamps (0:00:00) - Intro (0:00:58) - The Most Important Century (0:06:44) - The Weirdness of Our Time (0:21:20) - The Industrial Revolution (0:35:40) - AI Success Scenario (0:52:36) - Competition, Innovation , & AGI Bottlenecks (1:00:14) - Lock-in & Weak Points (1:06:04) - Predicting the Future (1:20:40) - Choosing Which Problem To Solve (1:26:56) - $30M OpenAI Investment (1:30:22) - Future Proof Ethics (1:37:28) - Integrity vs Utilitarianism (1:40:46) - Bayesian Mindset & Governance (1:46:56) - Career Advice This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

This was one of my favorite episodes ever. Bethany McLean was the first reporter to question Enron’s earnings, and she has written some of the best finance books out there. We discuss: * The astounding similarities between Enron & FTX, * How visionaries are just frauds who succeed (and which category describes Elon Musk), * What caused 2008, and whether we are headed for a new crisis, * Why there’s too many venture capitalists and not enough short sellers, * And why history keeps repeating itself. McLean is a contributing editor at Vanity Fair (see her articles here) and the author of The Smartest Guys in the Room, All the Devils Are Here, Saudi America, and Shaky Ground. Watch on YouTube. Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite podcast platform. Follow McLean on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (0:04:37) - Is Fraud Over? (0:11:22) - Shortage of Shortsellers (0:19:03) - Elon Musk - Fraud or Visionary? (0:23:00) - Intelligence, Fake Deals, & Culture (0:33:40) - Rewarding Leaders for Long Term Thinking (0:37:00) - FTX Mafia? (0:40:17) - Is Finance Too Big? (0:44:09) - 2008 Collapse, Fannie & Freddie (0:49:25) - The Big Picture (1:00:12) - Frackers Vindicated? (1:03:40) - Rating Agencies (1:07:05) - Lawyers Getting Rich Off Fraud (1:15:09) - Are Some People Fundamentally Deceptive? (1:19:25) - Advice for Big Picture Thinkers This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

Nadia Asparouhova is currently researching what the new tech elite will look like at nadia.xyz. She is also the author of Working in Public: The Making and Maintenance of Open Source Software. We talk about how: * American philanthropy has changed from Rockefeller to Effective Altruism * SBF represented the Davos elite rather than the Silicon Valley elite, * Open source software reveals the limitations of democratic participation, * & much more. Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Timestamps (0:00:00) - Intro (0:00:26) - SBF was Davos elite (0:09:38) - Gender sociology of philanthropy (0:16:30) - Was Shakespeare an open source project? (0:22:00) - Need for charismatic leaders (0:33:55) - Political reform (0:40:30) - Why didn’t previous wealth booms lead to new philanthropic movements? (0:53:35) - Creating a 10,000 year endowment (0:57:27) - Why do institutions become left wing? (1:02:27) - Impact of billionaire intellectual funding (1:04:12) - Value of intellectuals (1:08:53) - Climate, AI, & Doomerism (1:18:04) - Religious philanthropy This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

Perhaps the most interesting episode so far. Byrne Hobart writes at thediff.co, analyzing inflections in finance and tech. He explains: * What happened at FTX * How drugs have induced past financial bubbles * How to be long AI while hedging Taiwan invasion * Whether Musk’s Twitter takeover will succeed * Where to find the next Napoleon and LBJ * & ultimately how society can deal with those who seek domination and recognition Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps: (0:00:50) - What the hell happened at FTX? (0:07:03) - How SBF Faked Being a Genius: (0:12:23) - Drugs Explain Financial Bubbles (0:17:12) - On Founder Physiognomy (0:21:02) - Indexing Parental Involvement in Raising Talented Kids (0:30:35) - Where are all the Caro-level Biographers? (0:39:03) - Where are today's Great Founders? (0:48:29) - Micro Writing -> Macro Understanding (0:51:48) - Elon's Twitter Takeover (1:00:50) - Does Big Tech & West Have Great People? (1:11:34) - Philosophical Fanatics and Effective Altruism (1:17:17) - What Great Founders Have In Common (1:19:56) - Thinkers vs. Analyzers (1:25:40) - Taiwan Invasion bets & AI Timelines This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

Edward Glaeser is the chair of the Harvard department of economics, and the author of the best books and papers about cities (including Survival of the City and Triumph of the City). He explains why: * Cities are resilient to terrorism, remote work, & pandemics, * Silicon Valley may collapse but the Sunbelt will prosper, * Opioids show UBI is not a solution to AI * & much more! Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (0:00:00) - Mars, Terrorism, & Capitals (0:06:32) - Decline, Population Collapse, & Young Men (0:14:44) - Urban Education (0:18:35) - Georgism, Robert Moses, & Too Much Democracy? (0:25:29) - Opioids, Automation, & UBI (0:29:57) - Remote Work, Taxation, & Metaverse (0:42:29) - Past & Future of Silicon Valley (0:48:56) - Housing Reform (0:52:32) - Europe’s Stagnation, Mumbai’s Safety, & Climate Change This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

I had a fascinating discussion about Robert Moses and The Power Broker with Professor Kenneth T. Jackson. He's the pre-eminent historian on NYC and author of Robert Moses and The Modern City: The Transformation of New York. He answers: * Why are we so much worse at building things today? * Would NYC be like Detroit without the master builder? * Does it take a tyrant to stop NIMBY? Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (0:00:00) Preview + Intro (0:11:13) How Moses Gained Power (0:18:22) Moses Saved NYC? (0:27:31) Moses the Startup Founder? (0:32:34) The Case Against Moses Highways (0:50:30) NIMBYism (1:02:44) Is Progress Cyclical (1:11:13) Friendship with Caro (1:19:50) Moses the Longtermist? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com

It was a pleasure to welcome Brian Potter on the podcast! Brian is the author of the excellent Construction Physics blog, where he discusses why the construction industry has been slow to industrialize and innovate. He explains why: Construction isn’t getting cheaper and faster, “Ugly” modern buildings are simply the result of better architecture, China is so great at building things, Saudi Arabia’s Line is a waste of resources, Environmental review makes new construction expensive and delayed and much much more! Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. You may also enjoy my interviews with Tyler Cowen (about talent, collapse, & pessimism of sex). Charles Mann (about the Americas before Columbus & scientific wizardry), and Austin Vernon about (Energy Superabundance, Starship Missiles, & Finding Alpha). Timestamps (0:00) - Why Saudi Arabia’s Line is Insane, Unrealistic, and Never going to Exist (06:54) - Designer Clothes & eBay Arbitrage Adventures (10:10) - Unique Woes of The Construction Industry (19:28) - The Problems of Prefabrication (26:27) - If Building Regulations didn’t exist… (32:20) - China’s Real Estate Bubble, Unbound Technocrats, & Japan (44:45) - Automation and Revolutionary Future Technologies (1:00:51) - 3D Printer Pessimism & The Rising Cost of Labour (1:08:02) - AI’s Impact on Construction Productivity (1:17:53) - Brian Dreams of Building a Mile High Skyscraper (1:23:43) - Deep Dive into Environmentalism and NEPA (1:42:04) - Software is Stealing Talent from Physical Engineering (1:47:13) - Gaps in the Blog Marketplace of Ideas (1:50:56) - Why is Modern Architecture So Ugly? (2:19:58) - Advice for Aspiring Architects and Young Construction Physicists This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkeshpatel.com