Lowy Institute

An address by foreign relations expert and former diplomat Dr Martin Indyk on US diplomacy in the Middle East and elsewhere, and lessons from history. Dr Indyk discussed his recent biography, Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger and the Art of Middle East Diplomacy, and the relevance of US diplomat Dr Kissinger for modern foreign policy challenges, including in Ukraine. After his remarks, Dr Indyk spoke in conversation with the Lowy Institute’s Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove. Dr Martin Indyk is a former diplomat who is currently the Lowy Distinguished Fellow in US–Middle East Diplomacy at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Prior to this, he was the executive vice president of the Brookings Institution. He served twice as US Ambassador to Israel, from 1995 to 1997, and again from 2000 to 2001. Dr Indyk was special assistant to President Bill Clinton, senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs at the US National Security Council, and assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs at the US State Department. From 2013 to 2014, he served as President Barack Obama’s special envoy for Middle East peace. Ambassador Indyk is a founding member of the Lowy Institute Board. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

During a brief visit to Sydney, Major General (Ret'd) Tamir Hayman, Managing Director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, offered the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen his unique insights on where momentum now lies in the Ukraine war, whether Iran will pursue a nuclear weapon or stop just short of building one, and the role of secret intelligence in an age of ‘information super-abundance’. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Pacific Change Makers, Dr Jessica Collins speaks with Vanuatu MPGloria Julia King – a mother of four, and a former national football player who is the first woman to be elected to Vanuatu’s parliament in 14 years. Ms King pays respect to women who trailblazed before her but says, more than four decades on from independence, little has changed for women trying to make a career in national politics. At a recent FIFA World Cup Gender Symposium hosted by Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Ms King said that “in the community, in education, in health, in sports, in football…whatever the association or institution you’re serving in, it is important that women have a place on the table where decisions have been made.” She also says that while barriers persist for women in politics, sport is a great equalizer, irregardless of gender or ethnicity: “When it comes to football, when it comes to sports, all these barriers dissolve.” Speakers Gloria Julia King was elected to Vanuatu’s parliament in 2022 as representative for the Efate constituency, becoming the first woman elected to the chamber in 14 years. A former national football player and businesswoman, she was chef de mission of the Vanuatu team at the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham in 2022. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Director’s Chair, Michael Fullilove speaks with Kaja Kallas, the Prime Minister of Estonia. They discuss Estonia’s strong support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s invasion, the future of Russia in world affairs, and why democracies must work together to counter aggression and reinforce support for the international rules-based order. Kaja Kallas has been the Prime Minister of the Republic of Estonia since 2021. She first became a member of Estonia’s parliament, the Riigikogu, in 2011, and served as a member of the European Parliament from 2014, before returning to politics in Estonia as leader of the Reform Party. She was returned as Prime Minister in March this year after general elections. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In May 2023, Thailand held a general election. Now nearly three months after the vote, there's no new prime minister, no new government and the largest party in parliament, Move Forward, won't lead the country. Dr Gregory Raymond at the Australian National University sits down with Lowy Institute Research Director Herve Lemahieu to discuss the murky state of affairs in Thai politics and what could happen next. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three years of global turmoil have broken many of our underlying assumptions about the world. Australians have emerged from this period with dramatically different views on the threats facing the nation. They express a sober optimism in some areas. And they have cautiously reassessed Australia’s relations with great powers. The Lowy Institute held an event at the National Gallery of Victoria to unpack the findings of the 2023 Lowy Institute Poll. Now in its nineteenth year, this flagship research product is the longest-running and broadest survey of Australian public opinion on foreign policy and global events. From attitudes to China and the United States, to support for Ukraine, belief in democracy, and thoughts on climate change and potential conflict in our region, the Lowy Institute Poll is the indispensable guide to how Australians see the world and their place in it. Dr Michael Fullilove, Executive Director of the Lowy Institute, chaired this conversation with Ryan Neelam, Director of the Institute’s Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program and author of the 2023 Lowy Institute Poll, Lydia Khalil, Research Fellow on Transnational Challenges at the Lowy Institute, and Bec Strating, Director of La Trobe Asia and Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations at La Trobe University. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Russia’s war in Ukraine is now well into its second year. Ukraine’s much-foreshadowed counter-offensive is developing more slowly than expected. Meanwhile, Russia’s leadership was rocked by the recent failed mutiny by the private Wagner paramilitary group. The Lowy Institute hosted Mick Ryan and Zoya Sheftalovich earlier in 2023 for an update on the Ukraine war. In July 2023, with Ukraine on the offensive and Russia’s internal political instability, we again hosted these two compelling experts to discuss how the war in Europe is evolving. The conversation was hosted by Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove and included questions from the audience. Major General (Ret’d) Mick Ryan is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. His book, War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, was published in 2022. Zoya Sheftalovich is a contributing editor for POLITICO, based in Sydney. She is a regular commentator on the Ukraine war for ABC News 24. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Conversations, Director of the Southeast Asia Program Susannah Patton talks with Thomas Parks, author of the recently published book, Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future: Averting a New Cold Warabout how Southeast Asian countries are navigating growing US-China rivalry and the roles of the region’s diverse external partners, including Japan, Australia and India. Parks is optimistic about the future of the region, but also highlights emerging risks that could threaten Southeast Asian countries’ ability to remain non-aligned and open to all partners. Thomas Parks has led research and managed aid programs across Southeast Asia with The Asia Foundation and the Australian government (DFAT) on geopolitics, security cooperation, ASEAN, economic development, conflict and governance. He is a graduate of Harvard and Johns Hopkins SAIS. His new book, Southeast Asia’s Multipolar Future, is published by Bloomsbury. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What do Australians see as the key threats to the nation? How do they view China and the United States in the context of rising regional tensions? What do they think of AUKUS and nuclear-powered submarines? And how have attitudes to climate change and democracy evolved over time? Join us in Canberra unpack the findings of the 2023 Lowy Institute Poll. Now in its nineteenth year, the Lowy Institute’s flagship annual poll is the longest running and broadest survey of Australian public opinion on foreign policy and global events. It is the key resource for anyone seeking to understand how Australians see the world and their place in it. Stephen Dziedzic, ABC foreign affairs reporter, will chair this discussion with Ryan Neelam, the author of the 2023 Lowy Institute Poll, Karen Middleton of The Saturday Paper, and Jennifer Hsu of the Lowy Institute. Ryan Neelam is Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute and the author of the 2023 Lowy Institute Poll. Before joining the Institute, Ryan spent 14 years as an Australian diplomat including as Deputy Consul-General in Hong Kong, and at the Australian Mission to the UN. Ryan has contributed to policy development and international agreements on economic, climate change, human rights and security issues. Karen Middleton is Chief Political Correspondent for The Saturday Paper and has been covering national and international affairs across print and broadcast media for more than 30 years. Karen covered the September 11 attacks from New York City and Washington DC, the ensuing war in Afghanistan, and has authored two books - An Unwinnable War - Australia in Afghanistan (2011), and biography of the now-prime minister, Albanese - Telling it Straight (2016). She is a former president of the Federal Parliamentary Press Gallery and Churchill Fellow and, in 2020, was awarded an honorary doctorate from the University of Canberra. She is an experienced commentator in Australian and international media. Dr Jennifer Hsu is a Research Fellow and the Project Director of the Multiculturalism, Identity and Influence Project at the Lowy Institute. She is the author of the 2023 study Being Chinese in Australia: Public Opinion in Chinese Communities. After completing her PhD in Development Studies at the University of Cambridge, she researched and taught development studies, political science and sociology in universities in North America and the United Kingdom. Jennifer is also a Senior Visiting Fellow at the Social Policy and Research Centre at the University of New South Wales. Stephen Dziedzic (moderator), is the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s foreign affairs (Asia-Pacific) reporter, based in the Parliament House bureau. He covers foreign policy and Australia's relationship with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Stephen has worked for the ABC since 2007 and spent five years covering federal politics. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this podcast Dr Meg Keen speaks with Solomon Islands’ opposition MP Peter Kenilorea about the challenges ahead as the country gears up to host the Pacific Games and face an election early next year. Peter shares his thoughts on domestic security, slow economic growth, geopolitics and Solomon Islands-China relations: “My biggest fear is to be so dependent on one partner … you’re at their whim”. He reflects on the high expectations from his electorate and pressing social issues such as delivering education and opportunities for youth. Peter Kenilorea Jr is the member for East Are’Are in the Solomon Islands parliament. He was elected to Parliament in 2019 after working in senior posts at the United Nations, the Solomon Islands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in legal practice. His father, Sir Peter Kenilorea, was Solomon Islands’ first Prime Minister after independence. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Nonresident Fellow Dr Bobo Lo speaks with International Security Program Director Sam Roggeveen about the attempted coup by elements of the Wagner paramilitary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. They discuss the mutiny, the likely impact on Russia’s leadership, and what effect it will have on the future direction of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Dr Bobo Lo is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute and a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington, DC, and an Associate Research Fellow at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). Previously, he was Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, and Deputy Head of Mission at the Australian Embassy in Moscow. He is the author of a number of books including the Lowy Institute Paper A Wary Embrace: What the China–Russia Relationship Means for the World. He has an MA from Oxford and a PhD from Melbourne University. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, Project Director and Research Fellow Dr Jennifer Hsu talks with Dr Max Grömping and Professor Jessica Teets to explore how lobbying by civil society organisations works in an authoritarian context. Using case studies from China, Russia, Belarus, Cambodia, Malaysia, Montenegro, Turkey and Zimbabwe, Lobbying the Autocrat explores how citizen advocacy organisations carve out niches in the authoritarian policy process, even influencing policy outcomes. Dr Max Grömping is senior lecturer at the School of Government and International Relations at Griffith University (Australia). His research interests include lobbying and advocacy in different political regime contexts, disinformation, and electoral integrity. He previously worked as lecturer at Heidelberg University (Germany), research associate at the University of Sydney (Australia), and instructor in international relations at Thammasat University (Thailand). Max is an affiliate of the International Panel on the Information Environment (IPIE), and associate editor for the journal Democratization. His work has been published in academic journals such as Political Communication, Governance, Party Politics, and Policy Sciences, among others. Professor Jessica C. Teets is Professor of Political Science at Middlebury College and Templeton Fellow for the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). Her research focuses on governance in authoritarian regimes, especially the role of civic participation. She is the author of Civil Society Under Authoritarianism: The China Model (Cambridge University Press, 2014), editor (with William Hurst) of Local Governance Innovation in China: Experimentation, Diffusion, and Defiance (Routledge Contemporary China Series, 2014), and editor (with Max Grömping) of Lobbying the Autocrat: The Dynamics of Policy Advocacy in Nondemocracies (University of Michigan Press, 2023). See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China’s remarkable economic rise has long been a key factor in global geopolitical discussions. But how soon and at what height will China’s economy peak? What are the implications for China’s ambitions in the world? For years, predictions suggested that China’s economic power would surpass that of the United States by the end of this decade. However, recent developments, backed by Lowy analysis, have challenged this assumption. In this event we unpacked the findings of original Lowy Institute research and explored the concept of ‘Peak China’ with the Lowy Institute’s Lead Economist Roland Rajah, Senior Fellow for East Asia Richard McGregor and Nonresident Fellow Dr Jenny Gordon. The event was moderated by Director of Research Hervé Lemahieu. Our panellists discussed the implications of this potential turning point and what it means for China's future prospects, as well as the repercussions it may have for the rest of the world. Roland Rajah is Lead Economist at the Lowy Institute and the Director of the Indo-Pacific Development Centre. A development economist by background, Roland has extensive experience working across both emerging Asia and the small island developing states of the Pacific. He has previously worked for the Asian Development Bank, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Roland is the co-author with Alyssa Leng of the influential Lowy Institute Analysis paper Revising down the rise of China. Richard McGregor is Senior Fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute. He is a former Beijing and Washington bureau chief for the Financial Times and the author of numerous books on East Asia including Xi Jinping: The Backlash (2019) and Asia’s Reckoning: China, Japan and the Fate of U.S. Power in the Pacific Century (2017). His 2010 book, The Party, on the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party, was translated into seven languages and chosen by the Asia Society and Mainichi Shimbun in Japan as their book of the year. Jenny Gordon is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute and former Chief Economist at the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Dr Gordon is a member of the Australian International Agricultural Research Centre’s Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Advisory Panel, and the Asian Development Bank Institute’s Advisory Committee. She is also an Honorary Professor at ANU's Centre for Social Research and Methods. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Conversations, Susannah Patton, Director of the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Program, talks with Dr Nguyen Hung Son, Vice President of the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam. They discuss Vietnam’s foreign policy outlook, relations with external partners, including Australia, and how Vietnam sees key regional issues such as the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the conflict in Myanmar. Dr Son highlights Vietnam’s continued focus on diplomacy within ASEAN, as well as its interest in a regional balance of power that could lower the risk of conflict. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The World Bank recently released its “Evolution Roadmap”, aimed at responding more efficiently to growing poverty reduction needs and better addressing climate change challenges. While the roadmap provides a good starting point — outlining the evolution of the bank's mission, operations and financing model — it falls short in providing concrete and detailed strategies to achieve an ambitious reform. To discuss the roadmap and the future of the World Bank, Deputy Director of the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre Alexandre Dayant sat with Manuela V. Ferro, the World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific. An economist and engineer by training, Ms Ferro has more than 25 years of hands-on and leadership experience in Africa, Europe, Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia. She has shaped creative development solutions for multiple and diverse countries, from post-conflict low-income nations to upper middle-income states. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia is home to 1.4 million people with Chinese ancestry. At a time of heightened concern about national security and foreign interference, how do Chinese-Australians see Australia and their place in it? How do Chinese-Australians consume news and information? And how do they view the wider world, including the growing geopolitical tensions in the region? On 2 May the panel unpacked the findings of the 2023 Being Chinese in Australia: Public Opinion in Chinese Communities survey report with author and Lowy Institute Research Fellow Dr Jennifer Hsu, Jieh-Yung Lo and Yun Jiang. The event was chaired by Pablo Viñales. Jennifer Hsu is a Research Fellow and the Project Director of the Multiculturalism, Identity and Influence Project at the Lowy Institute. Jennifer is also a Senior Visiting Fellow at the Social Policy and Research Centre at the University of New South Wales. Her research expertise broadly covers state-society relations, state-NGO relations, the internationalisation of Chinese NGOs, civil society and the Chinese diaspora. Jieh-Yung Lo is Founding Director of the Centre for Asian-Australian Leadership (CAAL) at the Australian National University. Jieh-Yung has worked in various public policy and project management roles and served in leadership positions across not-for-profit, entrepreneurship and government. He served two terms as a Councillor with the City of Monash including two years as Deputy Mayor. Yun Jiang is the Australian Institute of International Affairs China Matters Fellow. She is formerly the co-founder and editor of China Neican, as well as a managing editor of the China Story blog at the Australian National University. She has published widely on China-related topics. She was previously a policy adviser in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, Treasury and the Department of Defence. Pablo Viñales is the Political Correspondent at SBS World News. Aside from federal politics, much of his work focuses on the changing geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific and the China–Australia relationship. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia’s strategic outlook on the Indo-Pacific is changing rapidly, as reflected by the recent AUKUS announcement, forthcoming Defence Strategic Review and membership of new regional minilateral groupings such as the Quad. These changes will have important implications for Australia’s relations with neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia, and especially Indonesia, highlighted by Jakarta’s mixed response to the AUKUS announcement in 2021. How widespread are concerns about AUKUS and Australian strategic policy more generally within Indonesia? Are the two countries experiencing a divergence in their strategic outlooks? And how should the two sides manage the risk of such a divergence in the years ahead? On Wednesday 26 April 2023, the Lowy Institute hosted an event at Old Parliament House, Canberra featuring Dr Evan A. Laksmana, Senior Research Fellow at the National University of Singapore, in conversation with Richard Maude of the Asia Society Policy Institute. The event was moderated by Susannah Patton, Southeast Asia Program Director at the Lowy Institute. Dr Evan A. Laksmana is a Senior Research Fellow with the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. He is also a Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow. Richard Maude is Executive Director, Policy, and Senior Fellow of the Asia Society Policy Institute. He is a former Director-General of the Office of National Assessments and head of the whole-of-government taskforce which prepared the Australian Government’s 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Monday 24 April 2023, Australia’s government published the public version of its Defence Strategic Review, a report it commissioned on coming to office to set the agenda for reforms to the posture and structure of the Australian Defence Force. Positioned alongside the government’s commitment to the AUKUS security agreement, the Review and the government’s response to it have signalled major changes to how Australia intends to invest in military technology, hardware and personnel over the next two decades. In this new episode of Lowy Institute Conversations, military strategist Mick Ryan discusses the Review with the Institute’s International Security Program Director Sam Roggeveen. They discuss what the report reveals about Australia’s plans for its military, but also what is missing. They also talk about defence bureaucracy, the role of the Ukraine war in Australia’s strategic thinking, and challenges for the future leadership of Australia’s armed forces. Major General (Ret’d) Mick Ryan is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute. He spent 35 years in the Australian Army. His operational service includes deployments to East Timor, Iraq and southern Afghanistan. His book, War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, was published in 2022. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Pacific Change Makers, Dr Meg Keen speaks with Sharon Bhagwan-Rolls in Suva, Fiji about social activism in the Pacific. Sharon is the Regional Representative of the Shifting the Power Coalition, a Pacific Island feminist coalition working on challenges affecting the region's future including climate change, social justice, and gender and community equality. She speaks with Meg about how her family and faith have motivated her to make a difference. They discuss how women and marginalised groups can be more prominent voices in society - in political settings but also in media, community and key social groups. Sharon works in professional and community networks to hold power accountable, deliver local solutions, and promote appropriate technology to build resilience. Sharon Bhagwan-Rolls is a Pacific Island feminist working on the intersection of gender, media, climate change and peace. From Fiji, she serves as the regional representative of the Shifting the Power Coalition, a team of women leaders and networks across Pacific Island Forum countries: Australia, Bougainville, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tonga, and Vanuatu – with a network of close to 100,000 grassroots members. In 2000, she co-founded FemLINKpacific and developed it into a leading community organisation supporting women's networking, media and research. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On 19 April, the Lowy Institute hosted the launch of the 2023 Being Chinese in Australia: Public Opinion in Chinese Communities survey report with author and Lowy Institute Research Fellow Dr Jennifer Hsu, along with guests Samuel Yang and Lucy Du. The event was chaired by the Director of the Institute's Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program, Ryan Neelam. Dr Jennifer Hsu is a Research Fellow and the Project Director of the Multiculturalism, Identity and Influence Project at the Lowy Institute. After completing her PhD in Development Studies at the University of Cambridge, she researched and taught development studies, political science and sociology in universities in North America and the United Kingdom. Jennifer is also a Senior Visiting Fellow at the Social Policy and Research Centre at the University of New South Wales. Her research expertise covers state-society relations, state-NGO relations, the internationalisation of Chinese NGOs, civil society and the Chinese diaspora and she has published widely in these areas. Samuel Yang is a Chinese-Australian bilingual journalist and presenter. He is currently a co-host of China Tonight on ABC TV. He joined the ABC in 2018 and has previously worked as a business reporter and presenter in Sydney, and a bilingual reporter and producer in Melbourne. He has lived across the Asia-Pacific including in China, Singapore and New Zealand. His work has won the NSW Premier’s Multicultural Communications Public Interest Award and he was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year in 2020. Lucy Du is the CEO of the Australia-China Young Professionals Initiative (ACYPI), the single largest young professionals organisation in the Australia-China space. She began her career in Canberra and then went on to work in China for one of Australia’s big four banks and later for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Shanghai. She is currently Head of Community at Belz Family & Associates, a global private assets investment platform for Asian and Australian investors. Lucy is bilingual in English and Chinese and has completed studies at the University of Melbourne, Australian National University and Tsinghua University. Ryan Neelam is Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program and is Project Lead on the annual flagship publication, the Lowy Institute Poll. Before joining the Institute, Ryan spent 14 years as an Australian diplomat including as Deputy Consul-General in Hong Kong, and at the Australian Mission to the UN. Ryan has contributed to policy development and international agreements on economic, climate change, human rights and security issues. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.