Robert Wright's Nonzero

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 0:59 Why Iran’s attack on Israel was an “own goal” 5:36 Did Iran minimize casualties on purpose? 12:11 The rising odds of Israel attacking Iran directly 19:39 America’s contradictory relationship with Israel 25:43 How conflict with Iran helps Israel 34:11 What China wants in the Middle East 43:27 America’s destabilizing role in the region 57:16 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Joshua Landis (University of Oklahoma, SyriaComment.com). Recorded April 16, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com Robert Wright and Andrew Day discuss items from the Earthling. Read this edition of the Earthling: https://nonzero.substack.com/p/marc-andreessens-mindless-techno Recorded April 12, 2024. https://twitter.com/NonzeroNewshttps://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 0:29 Why Paul’s eclipse experience eclipsed Bob’s 6:25 Remembering pioneering psychologist Daniel Kahneman 16:33 Bob fails gender affirmation test 21:14 Has the “replication crisis” tainted Kahneman’s legacy? 27:47 Eastern vs. Western “enlightenment” 35:58 How AI doomerism came to the rationalist community 45:42 3 Body Problem review goes into Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Paul Bloom (https://smallpotatoes.paulbloom.net, University of Toronto, The Sweet Spot, Against Empathy). Recorded April 10, 2024. Paul’s Substack: Overtime titles: 0:00 Should humanity welcome AI/alien overlords? 4:44 What was the movie Harvey trying to say? 15:07 Psychedelics as psycho-technology 26:59 The therapy crapshoot 31:06 The self-immolating airman and the trouble with mental “illness” 42:58 Poor Things baffles Bob

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 0:34 A brief message from Bob 2:12 Derek and Danny stumble into Bob’s Zoom room 3:11 Israel’s doubly out-of-control week 12:13 How Biden's Gaza failures will shape the Democratic Party 26:42 Biden’s political incentives on Israel-Palestine 30:12 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True), Derek Davison (Foreign Exchanges, American Prestige, Discontents), and Daniel Bessner (American Prestige, University of Washington). Recorded April 04, 2024. American Prestige on Substack: https://www.americanprestigepod.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=publication_embed&utm_medium=web Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 0:33 Robin’s history of thinking about the future 2:48 Seeing AI as offspring, not adversary 14:54 Robin’s famous answer to a great cosmic mystery 25:21 Would evidence of aliens be good news or bad? 34:23 Is rationalist culture cultist? 44:19 LLMs: revolution or hype cycle? 55:57 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Robin Hanson (George Mason University, The Elephant in the Brain, Overcoming Bias). Recorded April 02, 2024. Robin's Substack: https://www.overcomingbias.com/

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 0:33 Ilia’s background 2:21 Things to know about the noosphere 8:43 Teilhard’s transgressive theological and scientific thought 14:57 Does AI suggest a “transcendent nature to nature”? 18:36 The Teilhardian solution to the mind-body problem 29:44 How Darwinian was Teilhard, really? 38:37 Teilhard on love 43:33 “Techno-sapiens,” redemption, and the Omega Point 55:06 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Ilia Delio (Center for Christogenesis, The Unbearable Wholeness of Being, The Not-Yet God). Recorded January 10, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods Overtime titles: 0:00 Ilia: We’re a speeding world and no one’s at the wheel 13:20 Is becoming a global superorganism a good thing? 19:43 "God is more Omega than Alpha" and other cryptic Teilhard-isms 25:57 Did Teilhard believe in aliens?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com Robert Wright and Andrew Day discuss items from the Earthling. Read this edition of the Earthling: https://nonzero.substack.com/p/the-new-persuaders Recorded March 29, 2024. https://twitter.com/NonzeroNewshttps://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 0:33 Kati’s unusual niche 2:40 How Covid changed meditation 7:38 Kati: The optimal amount of meditation is… 15:10 Is focusing on the breath overblown? 23:06 AI as a spiritual challenge 33:03 Meditation and cognitive empathy 39:52 Using technology mindfully 46:24 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Kathryn Devaney (The Berkeley Alembic). Recorded March 21, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 3:05 Are Nikolay and Kirill satisfied with the "special military operation"? 8:26 Why have Russians become more supportive of the war effort? 18:07 Kirill defends the RWA tweet that unsettled Bob 32:53 US policies that made the war more likely 41:15 How much of Ukraine does Putin want? 54:29 Heading to Overtime RWA YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RussiansWithAttitude/videos RWA podcast episodes: https://www.patreon.com/rwapodcast Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Nikolay and Kirill (Russians with Attitude). Recorded March 21, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods Overtime titles: 0:00 Will Ukrainians blame Zelensky for the war? 10:16 Andrei Tarkovsky’s films and Burkean conservatism 21:40 The future of Russia’s political opposition 31:39 How are Russian nationalists processing the Gaza war?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 0:33 Paul’s Substack: small potatoes or some pumpkins? 4:03 Elon sours on Lemon—is ketamine to blame? 10:00 The enduring enigma that is Elon Musk 21:25 Is Altman overdramatizing the AI #Resistance? 30:03 Paul cavalierly ignores Bob’s sage guidance 34:25 Oscars: The good, the bad, and the hammy 40:57 Heading to Overtime (plus: big Small Potatoes news!) Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Paul Bloom (https://smallpotatoes.paulbloom.net, University of Toronto, The Sweet Spot, Against Empathy). Recorded March 19, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods Discussed in Overtime: The knotty SSRI sexual side effect question. How woke is Barbie? How Will Smith’s Oscar slap is like Russia-Ukraine. Is AI Bob’s ticket to immortality? Jury Duty, acting, and human nature. What is the TikTok ban really about? Is Paul Pollyanna?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 0:33 Nathan’s role as “AI scout” 4:07 What "open source" in AI really means 9:45 Why the secrecy around AI training data? 17:19 What’s actually “open” about OpenAI? 32:56 The case for and against open source AI 42:35 Is an open source crackdown coming?52:25 What Waymark, Nathan’s company, does with AI Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Nathan Labenz (Cognitive Revolution, Waymark AI). Recorded March 13, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods The Cognitive Revolution podcast: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/ Waymark AI: https://waymark.com/ Overtime titles: 0:00 Bob glimpses a Matrix-like future 4:34 Could (and should) we use AI to resolve human disputes? 9:47 Where Nathan falls on the AI doomer spectrum 22:50 Understanding how AI understands things 32:22 Is AI alignment overblown?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 2:49 Should Biden pursue regime change in Israel? 11:09 How the White House mishandled Netanyahu's far-right government 22:32 Daniel: “Israel has lost this war” 31:57 What a ceasefire deal would look like 39:16 Biden’s immense, unused leverage over Netanyahu 46:54 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Daniel Levy (Prospects for Peace, NAF, The Century Foundation). Recorded March 12, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods Overtime titles: 0:00 How the Gaza war makes Biden look weak 5:30 Has the Zionist project become more militant? 23:22 The Israel-Palestine one-state reality

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com Robert Wright and Andrew Day discuss items from the Earthling. Read this edition of the Earthling at:https://nonzero.substack.com/p/the-real-problem-with-the-trump-biden Recorded March 08, 2024. https://twitter.com/NonzeroNews https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 0:31 The other Tim B. Lee 3:16 Unpacking the Elon v. OpenAI case 14:04 How did Google’s Gemini go wrong? 25:24 The unsung ingenious side of Gemini 34:39 Is AI a bubble? 38:53 Are some LLM issues insoluble? 44:39 How Sora changes the AI picture 51:12 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Timothy B. Lee (Full Stack Economics, Understanding AI). Recorded March 6, 2024. Tim's Understanding AI newsletter on Substack: Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods Overtime titles: 0:00 Are LLMs general learning machines? Are human minds? 6:44 The Darwinian dynamics of machine learning 13:37 How to conceptualize how LLMs conceptualize 20:04 Is digital technology’s impact on society overstated?

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com Robert Wright and Andrew Day discuss items from the (would-be) Earthling. Recorded March 01, 2024. https://twitter.com/NonzeroNewshttps://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 1:19 Big trouble with Small Potatoes 5:13 What makes a good podcast? 13:21 Google’s AI goes wild(ly woke) 27:02 Is Biden a “super-ager” or just super old? 35:51 On the psychology of self-immolation 52:38 Are we thinking right about mental illness? 56:52 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Paul Bloom (https://smallpotatoes.paulbloom.net, University of Toronto, The Sweet Spot, Against Empathy). Recorded February 27, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods Paul’s Substack: Overtime titles: 0:00 The problem with paywalls 4:06 Is contingency in life good news or bad? 22:28 Do AIs need to be symbolic to be logical? 32:46 A new TV show Bob hates 38:04 Bob’s (mental?) break in the JFK case

0:31 Gary’s background and place in the AI world 1:45 Are Gary’s views on AI paradoxical? 9:16 Bob: Searle’s Chinese Room argument is dead 19:29 Have LLMs demonstrated "theory of mind"? 26:34 Arguing the semantics of an LLM's “semantic space” 32:04 Do LLM representations map onto the real world? 41:20 Can (and should) we slow down AI development? 52:11 Gary: I’ve never seen a field as myopic as AI today 54:53 The (symbolic?) future of AI Robert Wright (Bloggingheads.tv, The Evolution of God, Nonzero, Why Buddhism Is True) and Gary Marcus (https://garymarcus.substack.com/, Humans vs. Machines, The Algebraic Mind, Kluge). Recorded February 13, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods Gary's Substack: This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nonzero.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 2:19 Nikita’s memories of Navalny’s emergence as a political force 12:17 The time Nikita was detained for protesting election fraud 23:42 Navalny’s success as a political organizer 36:53 What did Navalny represent? 47:22 Navalny’s courageous post-poisoning return to Russia 57:53 Heading to Overtime (plus: Nikita’s photo with Navalny) Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Nikita Petrov (psychopolitica.substack.com). Recorded February 20, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com 2:19 Nikita’s memories of Navalny’s emergence as a political force 12:17 The time Nikita was detained for protesting election fraud 23:42 Navalny’s success as a political organizer 36:53 What did Navalny represent? 47:22 Navalny’s courageous post-poisoning return to Russia 57:53 Heading to Overtime (plus: Nikita’s photo with Navalny) Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Nikita Petrov (psychopolitica.substack.com). Recorded February 20, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nonzero.substack.com Robert Wright and Andrew Day discuss items from the Earthling. Read this edition of the Earthling at: https://nonzero.substack.com/p/sam-altmans-big-bad-idea Recorded February 16, 2024. https://twitter.com/NonzeroNewshttps://twitter.com/NonzeroPods