Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that the market is just starting a whole lot of market pain that will continue into 2026 before reaching a real bottom and the start of another long-term buying opportunity. McClellan says there will be great trading opportunities within the downturn -- including the month of April -- but emphasized that the economy has a lot to digest before real recovery begins. Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, expects a...

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says that the Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it still needs to fight to get the Fed Funds rate above the rate of inflation to put the brakes on the economy, and while the Fed seemed to hint that it would only hike rates one more time this year, it's entirely possible that there will be more increases. What there won't be are rate cuts; McBride sizes up what it all means for consumers in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice...

Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYCM, says that the financial concerns springing from the current bank concerns are building a currency and economic crises for the rest of the world, noting that the situation has changed interest-rate expectations for central banks around the globe. He expects the Federal Reserve to follow the path set by the ECB -- Europe's central bank -- moderating expectations and hinting at rate cuts starting late this year, triggering significant market...

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that the stock market's current issues around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others has investors revisiting their feelings and emotions from the financial crisis of 2008. This '2008-itis' is leading them to act scared at a time when they should instead be doing a temperature check to decide if their asset allocation is appropriate for what lies ahead, which Janasiewicz sees as a mild recession later this...

Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, says he expects the stock market to end up in a ‘flattish trading range for 10 years, similar from 2000 to 2012,' but makes it clear that outcome is not going to be the fallout of current events in the banking industry but rather is the result of long-standing economic trends. Katie Reichart, director of equity strategies manager research at Morningstar, goes 'Off The News' discussing the impact that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has...

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates says that the problem at the heart of the current banking crisis is the speed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, noting that it was nearly impossible for bankers to adjust their portfolios to absorb bond losses driven by those higher rates. Now, Doty says, the Fed may need to take steps to help inject liquidity back into the market -- even if that stops the progress made on inflation -- to give institutions a...

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus-Mellon, says that for all of the concerns investors have about the economy -- fears that have been heightened due to headlines about bank collapses -- economic activity remains strong and is likely to stay that way for much of the time the Federal Reserve is trying to curb inflation. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at a banking fund that has been buffeted by current events as an exemplar for trend-following with...

Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investments, says that the market has overreacted to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, pricing in the start of Federal Reserve rate cuts -- rather than the hikes it had been expecting -- as if the problems with the troubled bank was systemic and likely to take down a lot of institutions. While acknowledging that the situation muddies the outlook, Weisman says that he doesn't think history will remember the bank's collapse as the thing 'that...

Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management, says that investors should expect lower long-term returns over the next decade, with buy-and-hold strategies struggling more than in the past, with the change largely caused by shortened cycles in various sectors of the market that force investors to be more selective and to tilt portfolios based more on the shifts driven by economic activity. Lloyd says while he believes value investing will carry the day, his primary...

Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, says the outlook for the economy is 'very, very challenging for 2023,' but the economic numbers are strong enough to keep momentum rolling but slowing for much of the year. She says the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 'above 50 percent, and significantly so,' but the timing of when that happens depends mostly on the actions of the Federal Reserve, noting that if the Fed resumes larger rate hikes, it likely draws forward...

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that most of the damage to the stock market caused by rising interest rates has been done, and that downside risk to valuations has been priced in, leaving the market in a situation where 'We don't need to have a lot of good news to end up with a good year.' McMillan expects the market to end the year on a positive note, although he expects the story to be high volatility throughout as investors digest interest...

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research -- best known for his book on following the Fed to investment success -- says that investors are terrified that the Federal Reserve will overshoot on its strategy and throw the economy into a deep recession, but they have largely discounted the central bank's recent and current actions while they wait to see whether Chairman Jerome Powell decide just when a pivot can occur that drops interest rates and pushes inflation...

James Choi, a professor of finance at Yale University, discusses his recent study on 'Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors' -- which examines the recommendations of personalities like Suze Orman and Dave Ramsey compared to the standards of economists - -and discusses how the standard advice of saving 10 percent (or as much as possible) of your income from the beginnings of your working life leads to more times of struggle and no less in assets come retirement compared to...

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments says that the market has rallied this year on the hopes of a pivot from the FederalReserve, but the strong economic results have pushed the prospect of a Fed change in policy have moved farther out. Now, he says, the market is looking at 'an inflection point for earnings,' and he notes that current conditions have historically lead to a recession, which he sees as coming next year though he acknowledges it may not be a deep,...

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the stock market has never bottomed before the start of a recession, so if the current downturn doesn't rise to that level yet but you think it will, then the bottom has not been reached. The market, historically, peaks about six months before a recession, and it appears to be climbing to that peak and perhaps holding it longer than normal. It mean, he said, that there is likely a rally that ends in trouble later this year....

Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, says investors have good reason to be defensive right now because while he sees strong potential for the market to make new highs in the next six months to the end of the year, only to then embark on a deep bear market. He says 'you have to approach this market by being bullish and bearish at the same time.' In The NAVigator segment, Jay Rhame, chief executive officer at Reaves Asset Management -- president of the Reaves Utility Income Fund says that...

John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says that the stock market has come back around to a good time for investors to buy the dips, largely because the market's decline last year did 'so much of the heavy lifting' to put stocks in a better buying position. While Petrides expects continued earnings contraction, he says 'We're probably closer to the bottom than we were at this time last year.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi picks a precious...

Zed Osmani, portfolio manager for the Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, says the domestic and global economies could avoid a recession this year, although he sees a 65 to 70 percent chance of a sharp slowdown instead. Osmani says the key word for the year is 'pivot,' the centerpiece of a 'healthy bull-bear debate' about whether central banks will pivot in 2023 and how fast they will pivot; the result of that back-and-forth will be heightened volatility and a tough outcome to predict. Ted...

Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says that the technical indicators that the market peaked several weeks, 'screaming overbought, screaming this is not the time to be buying if you are not going to be holding forever,' which has the market in a short-term downturn even as the long-term outlook is positive. He notes that in times like these with conflicting signals, investors can nibble and be selective buyers, but they want to stick to the best names with positive...

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, says in The Big Interview that the economic data showing that both the economy and inflation are running hotter than expected is going to force the Federal reserve to make some moves that are more likely to trigger not just a recession but a harder landing for the economy. Bostjancic says the Fed has plenty of reason to keep tightening and the markets are starting to price in a bigger rate hike for the March meeting; if February economic data...