Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says that 'people are way underallocated,' nervously sitting in cash and Treasuries while waiting for market troubles to play out, but when those investors get FOMO -- a fear of missing out -- and the money starts flowing back into investments, it will lift both the stock and bond markets. DeGarner expects a big comeback in 60-40 portfolios this year and says that several commodities markets are now trading at levels that...

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says the current troubles with the banking industry and the market's struggles with inflation are setting the stage for a new cycle, noting that if inflation comes down and the Fed backs away from its stance it typically will improve conditions for investors. Levitt notes that investors are wondering whether the current situation looks like the 1990s -- when a downturn represented a great opportunity -- or like the 2008 financial crisis,...

Whitney Tilson, chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says that while headlines are driving investors to distraction, the stock market right now is neither too hot nor too cold. Other than regional banks, he says there's no blood in the streets, the market 'isn't screaming cheap or hugely overvalued either,' making this a time for investors to grind it out and work on their holding, rather than buying or selling. 'The key,' he says, 'is not in picking the next calamity, but...

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, expects a modest recession where investors can benefit from riding it out with a greater exposure to fixed income and a more-balanced portfolio, but he also notes that there are plenty of worrisome wildcards that could impact the market and economy. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market is going through 'a bottoming process,' but needs more...

Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says the last 15 months have shown a persistent lack of bullish sentiment, with roughly 20 of the 70 lowest readings ever for optimism in the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey, a weekly poll that dates back to 1987. Likewise, bearishness has been near record levels consistently. Rotblut notes that the survey did not show this kind of consistent high-pessimism/low-bullishness sentiment during the global financial crisis, the...

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that the market is just starting a whole lot of market pain that will continue into 2026 before reaching a real bottom and the start of another long-term buying opportunity. McClellan says there will be great trading opportunities within the downturn -- including the month of April -- but emphasized that the economy has a lot to digest before real recovery begins. Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, expects a...

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says that the Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it still needs to fight to get the Fed Funds rate above the rate of inflation to put the brakes on the economy, and while the Fed seemed to hint that it would only hike rates one more time this year, it's entirely possible that there will be more increases. What there won't be are rate cuts; McBride sizes up what it all means for consumers in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice...

Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYCM, says that the financial concerns springing from the current bank concerns are building a currency and economic crises for the rest of the world, noting that the situation has changed interest-rate expectations for central banks around the globe. He expects the Federal Reserve to follow the path set by the ECB -- Europe's central bank -- moderating expectations and hinting at rate cuts starting late this year, triggering significant market...

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that the stock market's current issues around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others has investors revisiting their feelings and emotions from the financial crisis of 2008. This '2008-itis' is leading them to act scared at a time when they should instead be doing a temperature check to decide if their asset allocation is appropriate for what lies ahead, which Janasiewicz sees as a mild recession later this...

Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, says he expects the stock market to end up in a ‘flattish trading range for 10 years, similar from 2000 to 2012,' but makes it clear that outcome is not going to be the fallout of current events in the banking industry but rather is the result of long-standing economic trends. Katie Reichart, director of equity strategies manager research at Morningstar, goes 'Off The News' discussing the impact that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has...

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates says that the problem at the heart of the current banking crisis is the speed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, noting that it was nearly impossible for bankers to adjust their portfolios to absorb bond losses driven by those higher rates. Now, Doty says, the Fed may need to take steps to help inject liquidity back into the market -- even if that stops the progress made on inflation -- to give institutions a...

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus-Mellon, says that for all of the concerns investors have about the economy -- fears that have been heightened due to headlines about bank collapses -- economic activity remains strong and is likely to stay that way for much of the time the Federal Reserve is trying to curb inflation. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at a banking fund that has been buffeted by current events as an exemplar for trend-following with...

Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investments, says that the market has overreacted to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, pricing in the start of Federal Reserve rate cuts -- rather than the hikes it had been expecting -- as if the problems with the troubled bank was systemic and likely to take down a lot of institutions. While acknowledging that the situation muddies the outlook, Weisman says that he doesn't think history will remember the bank's collapse as the thing 'that...

Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management, says that investors should expect lower long-term returns over the next decade, with buy-and-hold strategies struggling more than in the past, with the change largely caused by shortened cycles in various sectors of the market that force investors to be more selective and to tilt portfolios based more on the shifts driven by economic activity. Lloyd says while he believes value investing will carry the day, his primary...

Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, says the outlook for the economy is 'very, very challenging for 2023,' but the economic numbers are strong enough to keep momentum rolling but slowing for much of the year. She says the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 'above 50 percent, and significantly so,' but the timing of when that happens depends mostly on the actions of the Federal Reserve, noting that if the Fed resumes larger rate hikes, it likely draws forward...

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that most of the damage to the stock market caused by rising interest rates has been done, and that downside risk to valuations has been priced in, leaving the market in a situation where 'We don't need to have a lot of good news to end up with a good year.' McMillan expects the market to end the year on a positive note, although he expects the story to be high volatility throughout as investors digest interest...

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research -- best known for his book on following the Fed to investment success -- says that investors are terrified that the Federal Reserve will overshoot on its strategy and throw the economy into a deep recession, but they have largely discounted the central bank's recent and current actions while they wait to see whether Chairman Jerome Powell decide just when a pivot can occur that drops interest rates and pushes inflation...

James Choi, a professor of finance at Yale University, discusses his recent study on 'Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors' -- which examines the recommendations of personalities like Suze Orman and Dave Ramsey compared to the standards of economists - -and discusses how the standard advice of saving 10 percent (or as much as possible) of your income from the beginnings of your working life leads to more times of struggle and no less in assets come retirement compared to...

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments says that the market has rallied this year on the hopes of a pivot from the FederalReserve, but the strong economic results have pushed the prospect of a Fed change in policy have moved farther out. Now, he says, the market is looking at 'an inflection point for earnings,' and he notes that current conditions have historically lead to a recession, which he sees as coming next year though he acknowledges it may not be a deep,...

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the stock market has never bottomed before the start of a recession, so if the current downturn doesn't rise to that level yet but you think it will, then the bottom has not been reached. The market, historically, peaks about six months before a recession, and it appears to be climbing to that peak and perhaps holding it longer than normal. It mean, he said, that there is likely a rally that ends in trouble later this year....