Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, says "the trend between here and year-end is up, and 4,825 [on the Standard and Poor's 500] is my objective, and he expects the rally to broaden -- moving beyond the Magnificent Seven that have led to this point in the year -- and spreading into small- and mid-cap stocks. Chris Huemmer, senior client portfolio manager, at Flexshares, talks about why he believes real assets and natural resources play are important to help balance out a portfolio in the conditions that lie ahead; he also likes parts of the bond market -- notably junk bonds -- disdained by most of the show's recent guests. Duncan Farley, manager of the BlueBay Destra International Event-Driven Credit Fund -- which Morningstar places at the very top of its peer group over its five-year existence -- talks about how special situations are plentiful in the current marketplace, but the risks associated with those better yields are not so high as to turn off investors who can get 5 percent yields on money-market accounts. Plus, in the Market Call, Jordan Kahn, chief investment officer at HCR Wealth Advisors, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says it typically takes about a year from the start of a rate-hike cycle to impact the revenues of companies and then another nine months before layoffs and other fallout hits home. She says soft landings require increases in government spending, banks to ease lending requirements and labor costs coming down, and those factors aren't in the cards. Coupled with higher energy costs, the continuing strain on consumers and more, Fernandez says the economy and market is likely to take a hit early next year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi hums the tune of a new specialty fund for his ETF of the Week, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses their new research -- out today -- showing how the expectations of pre-retirees differ from the realities experienced by actual retirees, and Adam Peck of Riverwater Partners talks social investing in the Market Call.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says that there is a lot of value opening up in fixed income, allowing bonds to do "more heavy lifting" in a portfolio than in recent years. She notes that bonds will ride out the choppy market until a recession sets in and yields fall precipitously, at which point bond prices will rise, goosing returns amid an economic contraction. Roland made it clear she does not believe in a no-landing" outcome, but she says "the time to prepare a roof is when the sun is shining," and investors should be working on their portfolios now. Also on the show, financial advisor Chris Collins discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2023 Planning and Progress Study, which showed that even millionaires -- and a surprising number of them -- worry that they will outlive their money, Chuck discusses how podcast host "Dr. Matt, the Cash-Flow King" wound up being charged this week with running a Ponzi scheme, and Will Rhind of GraniteShares discusses "disruptive stocks" in the Market Call.

Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says that while he expects the stock market to challenge its support levels and take a small step back soon, he expects "a buying opportunity between now and year-end" because the market cycle has plenty of strength -- particularly in industrial and energy stocks -- to keep the bullish phase running. Still, he expects a recession early in 2024, but says the market is prepared for a downturn that he expects to be short and shallow. In the Book Interview, Princeton University history professor Michael Blaakman discusses America's first market mania, the land rush of Revolutionary times and how it dictated much of what the country has seen and done since. Forensic accountant Tracy Coenen returns for another episode of "Find Me The Money," talking about protecting your finances post-divorce, making a clean break on joint accounts, updating beneficiaries to retirement accounts and insurance policies and stopping an ex from accessing new credit in your name. In the Market Call, Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsletter -- talks stocks and has five potential buys during the "Quick and Dirty" portion of the interview.

David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts an initial public offering into the Danger Zone for the third straight week, always jumping on deals he considers overpriced before they are even out of the box. Trainer says that this week's pick, Birkenstock, is another company that can show profits, but where the private-equity backers are pushing to get way more for those profits than the market is paying for the competition. Trainer's last two picks -- ARM Holdings and Maplebear (Instacart) -- have dropped below their IPO pop prices almost immediately after coming out. In The Big Interview, Stash Graham of Graham Capital Wealth Management, says that"there is pain ahead" for the economy; he says the business cycle starting to shift in ways where the higher cost of capital caused by increased interest rates and the struggles consumers and businesses are seeing due to lingering inflation are going to hit home and create serious market problems. Plus, Ted Rossman discusses Bankrate.com's latest study, which shows that many consumers are responding to current conditions by starting their holiday shopping now, and James Abate, manager of the five-star Centre American Select Equity Fund, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's message this week was largely positive -- suggesting we're "in a mode to get a soft landing" -- but the market seized on confusing parts where he suggested that the central bank is not afraid of going through some pain. Garretty notes that there are already plenty of "pain points" already visible in the economy, but that it hasn't created real trouble yet. The question, she noted, is whether that pain will be felt down the line. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors talks about how muni-bond closed-end funds have seen discounts widening well past historic norms -- but notes that investors may want to be cautious before diving in -- Chuck answers a listener's question on unit investment trusts, and Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that technical indicators suggest the market will challenge support levels -- taking a small setback -- before they can start to make the next leg up.

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research, says the Federal Reserve is putting "arrows in the quiver" to deal with a recession if it happens, but that the central bankers have signaled that "if there's a rough landing ... they won't be so quick to react to it." Roberts says the economy remains strong -- and that the U.S. is still the best market in the world -- despite the market acting like it's in a correction. He sees the narrow, large-cap rally continuing for the foreseeable future. Plus, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, picks up on the quality theme he discussed a week ago, but turns in the small-cap direction with his "ETF of the Week," Chuck goes off the news with a consumer story that impacts every adult in the country -- and which serves as a reminder to take care of your financial chores -- and Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet, returns to the Market Call to discuss exchange-traded funds.

Sir Angus Deaton, a Nobel Prize winning economist and Princeton University professor, says that economic policy for the last few decades has paid little to no attention to "the negative consequences of trade, of disruption, of people losing their jobs to automation to globalization and what-not" and he thinks the Inflation Reduction Act has started to reverse that, though the progress maybe short-lived given current politics. Deaton weighs in on the UAW strike and the importance of unions and what he sees as the best possible outcome not only of the current situation but in the ways Corporate America and workers will deal with technological improvements from here. Also on the show, Miles Tullo discusses the latest research from J.D. Power on consumer preferences at the point of sale; debit cards are the not-surprising winner, but alternative methods -- including buy-now-pay-later choices -- are increasingly popular. Plus, portfolio manager Andrey Kutusov of Seven Canyons Advisors, talks international growth investing in the Market Call.

Investigative reporter Zeke Faux, author of “Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall,” discusses his adventures covering the cryptocurrency market, from connecting with Sam Bankman-Fried before the collapse of FTX to attending "ApeFest," convincing his wife to let him spend $20,000 on an NFT as part of his book research and more. He also notes that despite its trading popularity, having crypto used as currency remains a struggle, even in the countries that have tried to adopt its usage. Forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about digging into the more obscure and esoteric documents -- insurance policies, car titles, estate-planning paperwork and more -- and making a timeline to help uncover forgotten or missing accounts (something Chuck experienced personally in his own case) in the latest installment of "Find Me The Money," and Mike Venuto, chief investment officer at Tidal Financial Group talks ETFs in the Markt Call.

Andrew Foster, founder and chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners, says that stock prices in emerging markets are depressed -- understandably so -- but he thinks they have been too beaten down, which makes the case for emerging markets as a value play right now. That said, Foster says there is not a strong argument for growth investing in emerging markets now because struggles in China, the hub of the emerging markets, are tamping down the potential for growth in the asset class. Foster notes that China has been decoupling from U.S. markets, and visa versa, which is changing the international markets picture and the outcomes likely based on international politics. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs is back with another IPO that he believes is rotten from the get-go, opening into troubling conditions that will lead to trouble once the market's honeymoon with the new offering is over, and we revisit a recent Marekt Call interview with Stephen Dodson, portfolio manager at The Bretton Fund.

Michael Baron, portfolio manager for the Baron Partners Fund, explains how the fund came to have nearly half of its portfolio in one stock -- Tesla -- and how his confidence in the company may lead for those holdings to become an even bigger portion of the portfolio. Just as importantly, Baron explains how the Tesla example highlights the way active management and good stock picking can still beat the indexes and deliver superior returns. Also on the show, Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, explains that a wave of mostly negative sentiment among traders has the market poised to finish out the year relatively strong, provided it can get through some short-term bumps now, Colin McBurnette of the Angel Oak Funds discussed how the high-rate, high-inflation environment have set up the housing and mortgage market to deliver at a time when headlines suggest that real estate is troubled. Plus, in the Market Call, Noland Langford, chief executive at Left Brain Wealth Management, returns to the show to talk growth stocks.

Whitney Tilson, founder and chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says he expects the market to be flat to slightly up for the remainder of 2023 -- gaining about 5 percent on top of the 17 percent gains thus far -- and then gaining another 10 to 15 percent in 2023. He expects the "sanguine, strong" economic environment to continue despite the skepticism that has been present -- but which hasn't really slowed anything -- this year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi dives into factor ETFs with his pick for "ETF of the Week," and Eric Marshall, president and portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management talks stocks in the Market Call.

Jeff Rosenkranz, manager of the Shelton Tactical Credit Fund, says the economy and rate cycle are both reaching inflection points, making it tricky to make moves in fixed income without risking being wrong and facing punishment that's "severe". As such, he suggests moving up in credit quality, avoiding undue risks and starting to lengthen maturities, planning for rates to start going lower in six to nine months when the Federal Reserve has pushed the economy to where inflation finally recedes. Also on the show, Toby Eng discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2023 Planning and Progress Study, showing that nearly one-third of Americans lose sleep at least once a month due to financial uncertainties. In the Market Call, Conrad Doenges, chief investment officer at Ranger Investment Management, makes his first appearance on the show and discusses small-and micro-cap investing.

Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says the trend since October of last year remains up, despite the corrective nature of the last six weeks; that push and pull makes it that Kahn suggests buying only a few solid choices but not buying broadly or getting widely invested because the market's 'just not there at the moment.' Lowry notes that small-cap companies are struggling and he wants to see a resurgence in small-caps to get happy about the market's resurgence and prospects. In The Book Interview, best-selling author Diana Henriques discusses her newest effort -- 'Taming the Street: The Old Guard, the New Deal, and FDR's Fight to Regulate American Capitalism' -- which is out today. In the latest episode of 'Find Me The Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen dives into the high cost -- and the spent money that might be recovered -- in cases of romantic infidelity, and Chuck discusses taking some old coins and jewelry to a gold buyer, and what he learned from the process.

Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, says the biggest surprise in 2023 has been just how resilient the economy has been, but not the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver a soft landing, because economic growth combined with declining inflation and a cautious central bank are the recipe to delay a decline. Amoroso believes there will eventually be a recession, but says it's not imminent unless the Fed becomes too restrictive too quickly. Also on the show, David Trainer, president at research firm New Constructs, says this week's hot IPO deal is headed for trouble right out of the box, Megan Sanctorum discusses a survey showing that nearly one-third of Americans feel stuck or 'trapped' in a home they don't like or can't afford and, in the Market Call, Chris McMahon, chief executive officer at Aquinas Wealth Management, talks stocks and praises the very IPO that Trainer has in the Danger Zone.

Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says he expects the stock market to continue higher -- until something interrupts the trend and shows a reason to be bearish -- but he acknowledges that the market is climbing the proverbial wall of worry because 'Things are not as bad as people feared.' Conditions haven't been great, but neither have they been awful, and 'not terrible' doesn't inspire investors to get more adventurous. Also on the show, Mitchel Penn, managing director of equity research at Oppenheimer and Co., discusses the impact of higher interest rates and stubborn inflation on business-development companies, Roni Israelov, president of NDVR, discusses portfolio construction and the idea that most market moves shouldn't inspire portfolio changes for ordinary investors, and Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, brings his top-down, flavored-with-technicals approach to the Money Life Market Call.

Odysseas Papadimitrou, chief executive officer at WalletHub.com, says that concerns over recent news about the nation's credit-card debt are overblown, in part because the numbers released recently by the Federal Reserve aren't adjusted for inflation. WalletHub analyzed the numbers and found that credit card debit levels relative to assets and other metrics show that the consumer is stronger than the Fed number suggests, which suggests that the consumer-driven economy can keep rolling. Also ont he show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a currency hedged play on Japan his 'ETF of the Week,' Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses the site's annual checking account survey which shows record levels of ATM fees -- though he argues that statistic is less important than it has been in decades -- and, in the Market Call, Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management discusses his GPS Method of buying companies that beat estimates and raise guidance.

Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities -- which specializes in initial public offerings and private-market securities -- says the run-up in interest rates has changed the risk profile of potential buyers, and makes it harder for new projects to draw the dollars if all conditions aren't nearly perfect. He also talks about the SPAC market -- which he calls a 'house of cards' and a Ponzi scheme -- and how companies that want access to the public markets have to change in order to attract those dollars now. Also on the show, Paul Seaton of Fulcrum Asset Management North America discusses the firm's recent survey of investment advisers and discusses where those money managers want to go to diversify client portfolios now, Chuck responds to a listener who suggests that Chuck might have missed his beloved Michigan game last weekend 'on principle,' rather than paying a fee to a streaming service, and Mac Sykes of the Gabelli Funds talks financial stocks in the Market Call.

James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at the Sierra Mutual Funds, says that while conventional thinking has moved away from a recession being imminent, more difficult conditions for consumers in the fourth quarter will create an economic slowdown that is likely to become a mild recession early in 2024. St. Aubin says stocks might tolerate the downturn well, in part because of the bear market of 2022, and in part because the economic downturn is unlikely to last more than two quarters. Azish Filabi of the American College of Financial Services talks about a survey showing the factors that help consumers develop, establish and maintain trust in working with financial advisers. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses 'gray divorces' and the challenges that break-ups at older ages create for a fair split of assets, and Chuck answers a listener's question about pre-nups, trusts or both for providing financial security.

Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com, says he expects the fall to play out the way it has historically, suffering through September and into October before starting a rally into the end of the year. He says the market has struggled since Fitch Ratings downgraded the credit rating of the United States, but that it has also created opportunities where an investor who dials down and gets into specific trending names can ride out the hot streaks while the broad market gets through the doldrums. David Teppe of Tepper Capital Management talks about four of the oldest, most classic closed-end funds and how he has used them for decades, and why he likes them now when they are bringing that long-time consistent performance at a significant discount. Jenn Tracy discusses an IPX1031 study showing that identity theft issues have hit nearly one-third of Americans, and Stephen Dodson of the Bretton Fund covers 'value business investing' in the Market Call.