Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, says that rolling recessions haven't eliminated the possibility of a true, classic recession but she doesn't think there will be anything more than a shallow downturn in 2024 as the economy continues slowing to resolve inflation and other headline issues. She expects stocks to deliver "a comfortable return" in 2024, but with volatility and a "healthy" move toward equilibrium. Don Vandenbord, chief investment officer at Revere Asset Management, makes his debut on the show talking technicals and notes that short-term trends are all strong and that the market's recent run shows that performance is broadening out, which is a bullish sign. He sees mostly positives, although the longest-term indicators he follows have not yet turned fully green. Axel Merk of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals, says that gold prices are most tightly correlated to "the confidence the market has in the central bank to manage inflation over time," so gold's rally over the last six weeks -- as well as its path forward -- is "favorable because we might be entering a recession, most notably a recession that is more severe than is currently priced into the market." Plus Brian Bollinger of Simply Safe Dividends talks quality income-producing stocks in the Market Call.

Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, says that the stock market "is a couple of hundred points ahead of where we should be," which means there's not a lot of upside here, but he does expect the factors driving the market to keep shifting away from growth and more towards value stocks. He says value and international stocks move together, and he expects them to turn positive now as value, international and small-cap stocks have been oversold. In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi says there is no place like home, and no sector like home builders. And in the Market Callm Jonathan Smucker of Marietta Investment Partners talks about using macro factors to guide asset-allocation decisions before applying fundamentals and a bottoms-up approach to pick actual investments.

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute -- says the stock market currently is priced for perfection that is unlikely to happen, noting that there has never been a time when the economy has slowed down but earnings have increased, but with consensus earnings growth estimates running in double digits, something appears to be off-kilter now. That makes Dover cautious on stocks, though he acknowledges that dividend-paying stocks and slow-and-steady stocks should be solid performers. Also on the show, Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group, discusses the firm's 40th annual Christmas Price Index, comparing inflation in the broad economy to the price hikes that someone faces if they try to buy all the gifts in "The 12 Days of Christmas." And in the Market Call, Roger Conrad of Conrad’s Utility Investor talks about income-producers in utility and energy companies, REITs and more.

Two different analysts -- looking at the economy and market from varying viewpoints -- agree on today's show that there is trouble ahead for the stock market and economy in 2024, and that the election cycle -- which historically holds that presidential election years are good times for the market -- isn't going to be able to keep trouble at bay until 2025. Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investments, says that the Federal Reserve's actions have postponed recession and a reasonably soft landing into 2024, but notes that he is looking for safe havens in bonds -- where he is looking longer term despite the inverted yield curve -- to ride out troubles. Meanwhile, Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that he expects a few more months of solid markets, particularly in large-cap stocks, before things turn and start a widespread decline that should start late in 2024 and that could last into 2026. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about finding ways to save more.

It's Cyber Monday and Chuck offers an alternative to the usual gift-buying pattern by talking about how savers and investors can now give gifts of stock easily and efficiently, teaching children and young adults like-long lessons about saving and investing. Moreover, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com stops by and discusses gifts from the past that haven't worked out so well, based on the site's research showing that Americans routinely have gift cards they have not used. Plus, Jeffrey Hirsch of Hirsch Holdings returns to the show to discuss the latest edition of the Stock Trader's Almanac, and we revisit a recent conversation with Brad Lamensdorf of The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report.

Clyde McGregor, portfolio manager for the Oakmark Equity and Income fund -- who is retiring at the end of the year -- returns to Money life noting that one of his former partners liked to say that "The hardest time to invest is always right now." That's how he feels today, with stocks feeling expensive and with so much money piled into the top stocks in the big indexes -- because past times when there was that concentration have played out poorly for the broad market -- but he notes that his fund is moving out of growthier companies he bought on sale last year to stocks that have done poorly this year but which are positioned for good returns moving forward. Celebrating Black Friday the Money Life way, Chuck goes discount shopping in closed-end funds with John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors -- chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance -- examining three funds to determine whether big current discounts represent a real deal, an average play or a fake-out. Plus, Maya Corbic, author of “From Piggy Banks to Stocks: The Ultimate Guide for a Young Investor” discusses the need and the right way to teach children about money.

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says that the stock market is right on track with expected calendar effects, which he sees as continuing through a Santa Claus rally and a positive January Barometer -- which portends a good year ahead for 2024. Further, citing the history of election-year market patterns, Hirsch says he expects the market to stay strong during 2024, holding off a recession and a bear market until 2025. That would be in keeping with classic election-cycle patterns. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, looks toward international small caps -- an area that has recovered to where the trend is turning positive -- for his ETF of the Week, and Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring and Rozencwajg talks natural resources and commodities investing in an extended Big Interview.

Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says a recession is likely for 2024, which will create some market pain as it extinguishes "the final embers of inflation which aren't burned out yet, namely wage growth." Schutte expects the market to struggle but notes that conditions are great for fixed income, though he warns against investors hiding in the short-end of the yield curve because rates will start to change next year, and investors who are focused on making the highest yield now will wind up facing reinvestment risk once the yield curve flattens or reverses its current inversion. Meanwhile, talking technicals, Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and the Ranger Equity Bear ETF says the market is due for "a scary moment" likely in the spring or the summer of 2024, when there is a value reset. Lamensdorf notes that "We don't need a recession to have a 20 or 25 percent correction and I think one of those probably is due next year at some point, after we get out of this seasonably-favorable period." Plus, Benjamin Bailey of the Praxis Impact Bond fund gives his take on the fixed-income market, and sustainable bond investing.

George Kinder, president of The Kinder Institute of Life Planning and one of the leading lights in the financial planning industry, talks about his new initiative, "Fiduciary in All Things," which seeks to apply a fiduciary standard to more than just money relationships. While most stripes of financial adviser have an obligation to act as a fiduciary -- meaning they put the client's interest ahead of their own -- Kinder believes a straightforward golden-rule like standard cold help restore civility in politics and society, would make consumers happy and would make politicians more interested in serving their voters than being reelected by them. Also on the show, Lily Vittayarukskul, chief executive officer at Waterlily -- which won the FinTech competition at the recent FinCon conference -- discusses the real costs of long-term care and how families making care decisions need to think beyond insurance to do a thorough analysis, plus Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com returns to the show to answer another question from a listener.

Financial journalist Allan Sloan, a seven-time winner of the Loeb Award -- business journalism's highest honor -- discusses his recent Fast Company column sizing up just how much money Elon Musk and his investors have lost in his dalliance with Twitter, and while the huge losses won't impact Musk's net worth, how bad deals like this do impact real people and ordinary investors who fall for the hype of a successful entrepreneur. Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investments, returns to the show discussing closed-end funds and the massive discounts on muni funds -- currently at roughly 13.5 percent, compared to a historic average of about 4 percent -- and what has to happen for investors to profit from those discounts narrowing. Also returning to the show, Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, who today discusses "The Women's Guide to Successful Investing,” which she recently updated with a second edition. Plus, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com is back to answer another question from a Money Life listener.

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLC Investments, says rate volatility has driven most market activity this year, and now the stock market is pricing in interest rate cuts toward the end of 2024. He thinks that timing is about right, but he notes that the market's fortunes for next year will rest almost entirely on the Federal Reserve, with the market understanding that the central bank has "reserved the right to be tougher here. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi has his ETF of the Week, and the VCR he's discussing is not the one gathering dust in your basement, economist Lawrence Marsh discusses his book "Money Flow in a Dynamic Economy," and how changes in the way money is moving have altered the picture for both the country and the world -- and how further changes could solve many of those problems -- plus Stan Haithcock "Stan the Annuity Man" returns to answer a personal question from Chuck about whether to take a lump-sum buyout offer on an old pension or to stick with the structured payout plan.

T. Rowe Price issued its outlook for 2024 on Tuesday and Blerina Uruci, the firm's chief US economist, says that while she expects slower growth, "but I am not seeing a red flag here that indicates a recession is in the cards." She notes that forecasting has become harder in the post-COVID environment, making the margin for error higher, especially with the Federal Reserve still having work to do to bring inflation down, which "will keep uncertainty elevated for 2024." Uruci expects respectable growth, job growth and a low unemployment rate to create "a benign environment" for stocks and bonds. Also on the show, Len Estabrooks, owner of West Bridgewater Coin and Jewelry -- who Chuck and Gail went to when they sold some old jewelry and coins in September -- talks about the nuances of the cash-for-gold business, there's a Book Interview with Patrick Fisher, co-author of “The Compound Code: An Expert Guide to Trading Stocks and Options,” and Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com is back to answer questions from the Money Life audience.

David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large-Cap and Small-Cap Financial Funds, says the struggle for banks will be "what's going to happen on the credit side as these loans re-price with the higher rates." Ellison says the economy's current strength is a function of what has happened over the last three decades, which has made the economy "stronger than people believe it is," which is why indicators like the inverted yield curve may not be accurate and functional now. Also on the show, Jennifer Burns, author of "Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative," discusses the legendary economist and his lasting impact on how today's leaders view the world, Stan Haithcock -- Stan the Annuity Man -- talks about how annuities perform and how attractive they should be to investors and savers in a higher-rate economy, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the efficacy of 60-40 portfolios, and how to allocate money around a core of target-date investments..

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says he expects a choppy market through the first half of 2024, but says the market won't uncork an ugly bear market without a significant recession, which he does not currently expect. That said, the volatility and the economic conditions should help the "SHUT stocks" -- staples, health care, utilities and telecom -- which are defensive, dividend-oriented plays, currently "the most oversold they have ever been." If interest rates drop and dividend payers get a boost from investors seeking yield, Clissold believes defensive plays will have a strong rebound. Also on the show, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com discusses the year-end tax considerations investors should be thinking about now, David Trainer of New Constructs comes up with a Thanksgiving turkey, revisiting a Danger Zone pick that has gone all the way to zero and another pick that seems headed for bankruptcy, and Sam Huisache discusses a Clever Real Estate study showing that housing prices in states that have legalized recreational cannabis use are higher and rising faster than property values in states in which marijuana remains illegal.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says that the "hurricane" of bad economic numbers investors expected in 2023 could be a "gale force wind" in 2024, which is "something we can adjust to," which should help keep an economic downturn to a modest amount of time. Still, Ablin says that the technology sector is trading at 47 percent premium on a relative forward P/E basis to the rest of the Standard and Poor's 500, and history suggests that condition will lead to mediocre performance over the next 12 months. In The NAVigator segment, Eric Purington of the Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Income Fund, says mega-mergers involving oil giants Exxon and Chevron have implications for middle-market and midstream energy companies and infrastructure companies, because they show that larger energy companies are poised to make big investments in smaller firms, and the deals have opened the door to other mergers at all levels of the industry. Plus, in the Market Call, Dan Ives of the Wedbush ETFMG Global Cloud Technology ETF talks artificial-intelligence and cloud computing companies.

Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says that America remains the best country in the world to do business in, which is going to maintain "a basement" that the economy will not slip past when it loses some steam early next year. "The consumer has assets and has jobs, and those two things will keep the economy doing all right," he says in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, pursues really big dividends with his pick for the ETF of the Week. Claire Martin Tellis discusses a Preply.com survey showing that higher salaries don't always lead to the best job satisfaction, but lower salaries do tend to involve work that's boring. Plus, in the Market Call, Derek Izuel, chief investment officer at Shelton Capital Management, talks stocks.

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says the domestic stock market "Has to go down a lot more from here to be considered at fair value," which is why he has more money working in international stocks, particularly in Japan, where markets are more fairly valued and central bankers have not had to tighten up monetary policy the way the Federal Reserve has had to in the U.S. He gives his most optimistic, pessimistic and realistic look-aheads to 2024. Ron Lieber, money columnist at The New York Times, goes off the news on his recent story about banks suddenly and unexpectedly closing down some consumer accounts without warning, leaving surprised customers at a loss and struggling to pay bills, make payrolls and more. In the Market Call, Chris Retzler of the Needham Small-Cap Growth fund discusses the struggles that smaller companies have had in a market dominated by a few big names.

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that the economic downturn everyone saw as happening this year wound up being postponed for solid economic reasons, but it hasn't been canceled and more likely just pushed back into 2024. Luschini says investors should be defensive, taking advantage of higher bond yields and not being sucked into low valuations on international investments, staying balanced but not too aggressive until the economy and market are on more solid ground. His forecast for a 2024 recession is in keeping with that of D.R. Barton Jr., chief investment strategist at Finiac, who says the market's technicals suggest that Santa Claus will be bringing a rally to town before the year ends, but that the New Year is likely to bring a recession that may be harder than most people expect after so much back and forth this year. Plus, in the Market Call, Eric Schoenstein of Jensen Investment Management talks about using quality as a factor in selecting growth stocks.

Frank Holmes, chief executive at U.S. Global Investors, says he believes interest rates have peaked, and that the economy will turn around in six months as rates start to fall, but he also believes there is plenty to carry the stock market in the short-term with the Santa Claus rally propping things up by year's end as gas prices start falling, with rate cuts also coming then to help boost the economy and the recovery. Also on the show, David Trainer, president of New Constructs revisits some "zombie stocks" that are less dangerous than in the past, but where their "good news" is not much cause for celebration. Plus Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses the Weird Financial News.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says he believes the Federal Reserve has finished hiking rates, even though it hasn't announced it. He looks at the clues in chairman Jerome Powell's remarks, and notes that this inflection point has bond yields at a great spot, noting "I can't remember a time when the real yield was as attractive as it is now." He's not the only one seeing opportunity in bonds, as Willie Delwiche of HiMount Research talks technicals and sees headwinds ahead for the stock market late in the year due to economic pressures that he expects to hit home early in 2024, but noting that bonds are poised for a long-term rally if/when interest rates start dropping. Also on the show, Steven Perry of XA Investments discusses the growth in non-listed closed-end funds and how they offer all investors -- including those without a lot of money -- the chance to get into asset classes that previously were reserved for the super wealthy and the big institutions and, in the Market Call, Rob Spivey of Valens Research talks about his firm's accounting-based methods for analyzing stocks.