DHUnplugged Podcast

Risk - happens fast! Costco Selling ALOT of Gold April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals Rates spike, oil moves lower PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Risk Happens FAST - Costco Selling ALOT of Gold - April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals - Fewer students attending 2 0r 4-year college Market Update - Banks reporting - mixed results - Rates UP! - Earnings Season - Risk off - Missiles Flying --- WAR escalations concerning investors Rates - Rates spiked with all of the recent concern that the Fed will not be cutting rates so fast - Came on on the Iran retaliation worries - Spike Monday to 4.64% for the 10Yr - starting to get worrisome that could be technical move and disrupt markets Rates in Europe - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term, subject to any major shocks. - "We just need to build a bit more confidence in this disinflationary process but if it moves according to our expectations, if we don't have a major shock in development, we are heading towards a moment where we have to moderate the restrictive monetary policy," Lagarde said. --- Also noted that she is very attentive to the price of oil HA! If you don't like the numbers... - The Bank of England on Friday announced a “once in a generation” overhaul of its inflation forecasting following a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. - The review was initiated in response to criticism over shortcomings in the bank’s recent policymaking. - It sets out 12 recommendations — including scrapping the bank’s “fan chart” forecasting system — which BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank was committed to implementing. Inflation Spots Sticker Shock And then at 1:30PM Tuesday - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Canadian forum says recent data shows lack of progress on returning to 2% inflation goal; says US economic performance has been quite strong. - Markets were not pleased - ---- Begs the question: - what is the point of this at a time with such global stress having these types of comments? ---- WSJ's Nick Timiraos says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell "dialed back" rate reduction expectations at Canadian forum amid new inflation uncertainty Safe-haven? - Bitcoin and other cryptos PLUNGE when Iran sent misses and drones - How is that digital gold or store of value? - Simply trades like a speculative risk asset and starting to hear that phrase quite a lot. - Tried to rally on Sunday when Iran said that is all they are doing- but sold off again Monday Earnings This Week - Plenty of banks and financials (BAC, GS etc) also Netflix Thursday after the close - Proctor and Gamble on Friday - Problem is that they come right as risk elevated. Goldman Sachs Earnings - Goldman Sachs on Monday posted first-quarter profit and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by a surge in trading and investment banking revenue. - The bank said profit jumped 28% to $4.13 billion, or $11.58 per share, from the year earlier period, thanks to a rebound in capital markets activities - Goldman shares climbed more than 4% in the days trading Monday. JPM Earnings - The bank said first-quarter profit rose 6% to $13.42 billion, or $4.44 per share, from a year earlier, boosted by its takeover last year of First Republic during the regional banking crisis. - But in guidance for 2024, the bank said it expected net interest income of around $90 billion, which is essentially unchanged from its previous forecast. - That appeared to disappoint investors, some of whom expected JPMorgan to raise its guidance by $2 billion ...

A WINNER - CTP for Rumble A new CTP to announce! Club 72 Thank You Solar Eclipse PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A WINNER - CTP for Rumble - A new CTP to announce! - Club 72 - Solar Eclipse Market Update - Boeing issues continue - Oil market on fire - Yellen - talking tariffs again - Kashkari and others on cuts - Earnings season starts this week Lucky CLUB 72 Jonathan Farris Mark Studebaker William Palmer Susan Erickson Terrence Cleary Anonymous (2) Fed Walking All Back - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that at the U.S. central bank's meeting last month he penciled in two interest rate cuts this year but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year end. - "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said during an interview with Pensions & Investments. "There's a lot of momentum in the economy right now." Walking Forward - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it's possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting. - "While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse," Who is the best? -If you were wondering about the track record of the Fed Chair's performance over time, it's worth delving into the historical data. - Overall, the track record of Fed Chairs over time reflects the challenges and complexities of managing monetary policy in a dynamic and ever-changing economic environment. Each Chair has faced unique circumstances and challenges during their tenure, and their actions have had far-reaching implications for financial markets and the economy as a whole. Whispers - Hearing that the car business - used and new having one of the worst years on record (from selective car salespeople) - Same as above on lower end boat business (sales) - U.S. small-business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than 11 years in March amid rising concerns about inflation, according to a survey on Tuesday. - The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 point to 88.5 last month, the lowest level since December 2012. It was the 27th straight month the index was below the 50-year average of 98. - - Twenty-five percent of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, reflecting higher input and labor costs, up 2 points from February. The share of businesses raising average selling prices rose 7 points from the prior month. Inflation Data and ECO - CPI and PPI this week - CPI expectations are 0.4% MoM for March --- Many are sahing that this is a clean month without odd seasonal factors - so something to watch - - 10 Yr at 4.378% ----------- FOMC minutes at 2:00 Wednesday -- Last week - Employment situation continues to be strong - 3.8% Unemployment rate 300k added to payrolls (Wage growth was okay) Earnings Season - Banks in Focus - Banks are expected to see some decline in earnings over the period - Focus on net interest margin as well as credit deterioration (and days outstanding) - However, YoY - earnings growth for some look pretty good - - - - Property & Casualty Insurance (87%), Reinsurance (62%), Life & Health Insurance (12%), and Multi-line Insurance (12%). REMOTE WORK on the sea

All of a sudden - mood swing The bloom is off the Rate-Cut-Rose Leaking Data - Another breach More AI - lots of $$ committed to this... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - All of a sudden - mood swing - Bloom is off the Rate Cut Rose - Leaking Data - Another breach - More AI - lots of $$ committed to this... Market Update - Oil prices moving through key resistance - Apple back to Oct 2023 support -watch out below? - Gold/Silver Soaring - into higher rates and higher USD??? - Oil on the rise CTP for Rumble Update - Marcus G - In the top spot right now.... - - Thatch House dude HCD: Donations - Need a new Shirt Prize and Design - Plus Contracted Devs prices inflation. Analyzing Apple's Chart - Key levels of support - Down-trend Apple Chart Powell on Good Friday - PCE report (on day the markets are closed for Good Friday) -- Showed 2.8% YoY and 0.3% MoM - Powell tried to talk down market expectations for rate cuts like several other recent speakers - - Market still hoping for MAYBE 3 - but it looks like June is off the table. Stronger Economy than Thought - ISM comes in above 50 for the first time in nearly 18 months - Economic strength + good employment + Inflation = Rate CUT????? - Market is finally getting the hint --- 10-Yr rate spiked to 4.38% today ISM Chart Global Economic Trends - China finally saw its manufacturing number gain some traction last month --- China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, with business confidence hitting an 11-month high, driven by growing new orders from customers at home and abroad, a private survey showed on Monday. - South Korea - Sticky inflation (Consumer prices advanced 3.1% in March from a year earlier) USA Strong Commodities on the rise - Cocoa futures for May delivery were up 3.9% at $10,030 per metric ton, marking the first time the commodity breaks above the $10,000 mark. Cocoa has been on a tear this year, soaring nearly 39%. - Ivory Coast, the biggest coca producer in the world, is facing hotter-than-normal temperatures — which have led to dryer-than-usual conditions and crop yields. TSLA - Q1 deliveries declined by 8.5% yr/yr to 433,000, representing TSLA's first yr/yr decline since the pandemic-impacted year of 2020. Importantly, that decrease is partly due to extraordinary events that were out of TSLA's control. -- Berlin fire factory shutdown, Red Sea passage issues etch. - Competition in China is really heating up and cost of EVs from many Chinese manufacturers are much lower. M&A - Amazon - Amazon.com Inc. says it’s investing an additional $2.75 billion into Anthropic, an artificial intelligence startup. - The infusion brings Amazon’s total investment in the company, a well-regarded builder of so-called generative AI tools able to generate text and analysis, to $4 billion, following an earlier investment announced in September. - As part of that deal, Amazon had the right to contribute the additional funds in the form of a convertible note, provided it did so before the end of March. AI NEWS - Microsoft and OpenAI are in discussions regarding Stargate, a new AI super-computer data center project to be headquartered in the U.S. may cost over $115 billion and is planned for launch in 2028. - $$$$$$115 BILLION - That is like 115,000 $1,000,000 homes.... - Stargate’s power requirements, estimated to be several gigawatts (5) may require Microsoft and OpenAI to explore alternative power sources, like nuclear power. Enough to power 3,750,000 for a year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ----- Hoover Dam X2 Meanwhile - Microsoft will sell its chat and video app Teams s...

Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday. Reddit IPO Frenzy! Inflation - definitely not going away. Announcing - A New Closest to The Pin PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A New CTP Announced - No Show Next week - business meetings out of town - A not so surprising result in the Russian Elections - An important change to stock trade settlements is coming Market Update - Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday - Reddit IPO Frenzy - Inflation - definitely not going away - AI Frenzy - Culd Call This DHAI Unplugged - so much AI news to discuss - Yield Frenzy PPI Release - After a HOT CPI, PPI Comes in Hotter - 0.6% on the core - but only 1.6% YoY - The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February. - Prices for final demand goods advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent. - Prices for final demand advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February. - Markets didn't know what to do with this on Friday. PPI MoM Company Stats - Recession? - According to FactSet: During Dec-March earnings calls, 47 cited the term “recession” during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter. -- This number is below the 5-year average of 85 and below the 10-year average of 61. - This quarter will mark the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls for a quarter since Q4 2021 Companies Citing Recession % of Companies Reddit - IPO slated to be live sometime this week (March 21) - 5X Oversubscribed - Reddit began sending invitations to users to participate in the IPO based on one of two measurements of engagement on the site: either the number of actions they’ve taken as a moderator of a forum on the platform (also known as a “subreddit”) or their “karma” score, a figure that indicates a user’s contributions and reputation among other users on the site. - Reddit plans to list 22 million shares at a price between $31 and $34, according to the latest version of the IPO prospectus it filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company stands to take in between $473.6 million and $519.4 million from the sale of roughly 15.3 million shares. - Valuation > $6 billion - Question???? Is Reddit profitable? NO - However, the company has been substantially growing revenue in the past few years. ---- Reddit's total revenue in 2023 was $804 million, up 21% from $666 million in 2022. ----- Reddit's net loss for 2023 narrowed to $90.8 million. Yields - 10 YR - Highest level of 2024 - technically breaking out - if Fed moves a bot more hawkish - 4.50% is next test Yields Japan Yields - The Bank of Japan is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in 17 years on Tuesday following its two-day monetary policy meeting, Kyodo reported. - The BOJ will raise the short-term rate to the 0%-0.1% range, the report said. The development reflects growing confidence among policymakers that a virtuous cycle of wage growth and price hikes is in motion following this year’s labor-management pay negotiations - RAISING TO ZERO! Global Rates - Who Will CUT First? First Mover? ELON - Increasing prices on Model Y by $1,000 --- Stock moves up by 6% - Goldman Downgrades - Perhaps this is why stock moved up - another bug downgrade - stock in the toilet - nowhere else to go --- SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies. Elon - Ketamine

Volatility is back and Bitcoin mania is here again. Need a new CTP Stock! China stocks on a run... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Volatility is back - Bitcoin mania - Need a new CTP Stock! - LSD - making an interesting comeback Market Update - NVDA had 2 down days! - Markets still want to go higher - not matter what the data - Yields move up with CPI - Big rebound for NVDA - not letting it go down too much... CPI Release - Total CPI increased by 0.4% month-over-month, meeting expectations, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.4% month-over-month (0.3%). - On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, compared to 3.1% in January, and core CPI increased by 3.8%, versus 3.9% in January. - Excluding shelter, CPI rose by a more modest 1.8% year-over-year. - Despite the headline disappointment for core CPI, the market seems optimistic about the future, anticipating a reduction in the isolated impact of the shelter index in the coming months due to an expected moderation in rent prices. (in other words, thinking the Fed's PCE will not be so hot next time and the Fed will still cut sometime this year) CPI Report key takeaways: - The food index showed no change month-over-month and increased by 2.2% year-over-year. - The energy index rose by 2.3% month-over-month and declined by 1.9% year-over-year. - Used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month and a 1.8% decrease year-over-year. - The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and unchanged year-over-year. - The all items index, excluding food, shelter, and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year. Inflation - YoY Inflation - ACTUAL Layoffs - Does not fit the narrative - Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since the global financial crisis, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. - The total of 84,638 planned cuts showed an increase of 3% from January and 9% from the same month a year ago, with technology and finance companies at the forefront. - From a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,350 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end. - Here is where it gets interesting: The layoff numbers, however, are not feeding through to weekly jobless claims, suggesting that unemployment is short-lived and workers are able to find new positions. Powell - On one hand he stated that the Fed is watching and not ready yet to cut rates - data dependent - A couple days later he indicated that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate. - In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the central bank leader didn't provide a precise timetable of when he sees easing happening, but noted that the day could be coming soon. Mnuchin to the Rescue? -NYCB had bad month - and got worse - Lost 7% of deposits - Bond rating cut - Investment firm lead by Steve Mnuchin swooped in with a cool $1 billion rescue package - Remember NYCD bought Signature Bank - obviously so much crap in that portfolio it helped poison NYCB Oracle Earnings - New ATH - Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $1.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 7.1% year/year to $13.28 bln vs the $13.29 bln FactSet Consensus. - Q3 Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to $80 billion. - Q3 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $5.1 billion, up 25% in USD, up 24% in constant currency. - Q3 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.8 billion, up 49% in both USD and constant currency.

All sorts of good stuff in this episode. Some good laughs and fun throughout the year. Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together! DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Follow Ryan on Twitter

TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed! Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising Year of Pharma? To The Moon - Crypto Style Valuations getting frothy? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Pays to Follow Pelosi! - Landing on the Moon - then falling over - Japan - something not kosher - New See-through laptop screens Market Update - TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed! - Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising - Year of Pharma? - To The Moon - Crypto Style - Valuations getting frothy Froth-a-Bubble- Icous? - There is some concern at Apollo regarding a bubble in S&P 500 - The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the tech bubble in the mid-1990s, see chart below. - Different makeup back in 1999 - but still of interest asa the S&P500 reaches levels (P/E) at the high end of the ranges. - SEE LINK Smart Money? - Hedge funds piled into tech stocks in the weeks before Nvidia Corp. earnings. Now, they’re cashing out and selling at the fastest pace in seven months. - Professional managers offloaded their positions for four straight sessions last week, including Thursday, the day after Nvidia posted results, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime-brokerage unit. The intensity of the selling ranks in the 98th - he data suggests traders are booking profits on their tech wagers after a six-week buying streak and putting that extra cash into less volatile stocks, such as consumer staples. - SEE LINK Nancy! - NEWS MONDAY: PANW - Palo Alto Networks shares higher by 9% after Rep. Nancy Pelosi reported Friday afternoon the purchase of 70 call options (purchases made 2/12 and 2/21) - Stock moved down 27% after earnings last week - In fairness, the purchases on 2/12 are very underwater - AH picked this for the game right after post-earnings slump Earnings - Zoom - Zoom shares rose as much as 13% in extended trading on Monday after the video chat software vendor announced fiscal fourth-quarter results that topped analysts' expectations. - Here's how the company did, compared with consensus among analysts polled by LSEG: - -- - Earnings per share: $1.22, adjusted vs. $1.15 expected - - - -Revenue: $1.15 billion vs. $1.13 billion expected Disney -Walt Disneyshareholder Blackwells Capital is calling for it to come up with an artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, saying that this could lift the U.S. media and entertainment conglomerate's stock price by as much as 129%. Blackwells is one of two activist investors pushing for board seats What Goes Up... - Intuitive Machines Inc. shares sink Monday, after the spacecraft company said its lander, which successfully touched down on the moon last week, likely landed on its side. - The landing was touted as the first by a private-sector company to reach the moon intact, as well as the first US spacecraft to reach the moon’s surface since 1972. - In a Monday update, the company wrote that “flight controllers intend to collect data until the lander’s solar panels are no longer exposed to light,” and that “based on Earth and Moon positioning, we believe flight controllers will continue to communicate with Odysseus until Tuesday morning.” - Stock down 33% on this news Japan - Markets at new highs - Yen weak weak weak - Government keeps ultra-loose monetary policy - Recession official - Something is not right over there More Japan - Federal prosecutors in New York on Wednesday said they had charged a Japanese Yakuza leader with conspiring to traffic nuclear materials from Burma to other countries. - Prosecutors said the accused gangster Takeshi Ebisawa "and his confederates showed sa...

Japan makes surprise crypto move. AI dating coaches are coming - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely - AI Buying AI stuff - Cure for Frostbite? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AI dating coaches are coming - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely - AI Buying AI stuff - Cure for Frostbite? - AMAZING AMAZON Market Update - Japan - really pumping the risk assets - China government making $$ moves - China: Latest Problem: Lying Flat - Whoops - What is an extra ZERO anyway? Follow Up---- - USA CPI came out HOT! - January PPI increased by 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), with the previous figure revised to -0.1% from -0.2%. Meanwhile, January Core PPI rose by 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), and the prior number was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%. - The significant message from the report aligns with the conclusion drawn from the unexpectedly high January CPI report: whether the market opts to overlook this data due to seasonal adjustments, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to dismiss it. - The Fed is likely to perceive it as a reason to maintain a patient approach in terms of potential rate cuts. Market Hysteria - The Russell 2000, sank 4% on Tuesday, but ultimately settled 1.1% higher on the week. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 declined 0.4% this week, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 jumped 0.7%. - The Russell was DOWN 4% on Tuesday after the hotter than expected CPI report. - In addition to the hot CPI reading, market participants also digested a below-consensus Retail Sales report for January, an unexpected drop in jobless claims to 212,000, and a hotter-than-expected PPI report for January. -The 2-yr note yield settled 15 basis points higher this week to 4.65% in response to this week's data and the 10-yr note yield rose 11 basis points this week to 4.30%. (Briefing.com) Japan Crypto News - Japan inched closer to allowing venture capital firms and other investment funds to hold digital assets directly, after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration agreed to submit a revised bill to implement the change. - His cabinet approved the text of a bill on Feb. 16 that seeks to partially amend the country’s industrial competitiveness enhancement act, according to a statement published on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s website. The bill states that “measures will be taken to add cryptoassets to the list of assets that can be acquired and held by investment limited partnerships,” referring to a vehicle used by venture capital firms to secure capital for investments. China - China’s southern province of Hainan moved to cut down-payment ratio for first-time homebuyers, the latest region in the country to ease mortgage policies to boost slumping home sales. - Minimum down payment for first homes was cut to 20% from 25%, according to a Monday report by Hainan Daily. The ratio for second homes remains unchanged at 30%, the outlet reported, citing a government notice without saying when the measure would go into effect. More China - China's market opened after the long Lunar New Year break with a thud. - China looks to be still buying directly into markets to prop up - Reports about pre-pandemic level spending on goods and travel, especially during the Lunar New Year did not lift the mood much China's Newest Concern: Lie Flat - "lie flat", a Chinese term used to describe people who work just enough to afford to spend their time on what they enjoy. ---- Not like Japan Inc of the 1980's - Although there is no data on how many young Chinese are opting out of corporate jobs that they traditionally would have taken, the youth jobless rate rose to a record high of 21.

SUPERBOWL Mania. Bitcoin Fever is back HUGE week for economic reports Altman looking for $ Winner for SAVE CTP announced PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - SUPERBOWL Mania - Bitcoin Fever is back - HUGE week for economic reports - Altman looking for $ - Winner for SAVE CTP Market Update - 3-Day Rule (Buy after plunge) - Made up Nonsense - Get out your 5,000 Hats! - Disney Earnings - Good Stuff - ARM Blowout - CPI Report Meltdown S&P 500 Breaks 5,000! - All time high - The S&P 500 continues to hit fresh milestones with a first-ever break above the 5,000 level, its valuation is reaching new heights as well. - PE - forward price-to-earnings ratio -- a commonly used metric to value stocks -- this week rose to 20.4 times, a level last reached in February 2022, according to LSEG Datastream. - That puts it far above the index’s historic average of 15.7. - Expectations are for 9.7% earnings growth for 2024 - "The good news is that valuations, while stretched ... are nowhere near the 28x peak at the Y2K Bubble Top," Emanuel said. ???? Follow Up---- - CPI came out HOT! - YoY 3.1% for CPU and 3.9% for Core - The food index was up 0.4% month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year. - The energy index was down 0.9% month-over-month and down 4.6% year-over-year. - The used cars and trucks index decreased 3.4% month-over-month and was down 3.5% year-over-year. - The shelter index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 6.0% year-over-year. - The all items index less shelter was up 1.5% year-over-year. ----- Markets hit after reports - gained a bit back toward end of the session - but overbought and hot CPI don't mix --- Small Caps down 4%, NAZ down 2% S&P down 1.4% What Does it Mean? - Fed funds futures push any cut until June - 4 cuts are expectations for 2024 (down 7 at the start of the year) Economics this week Economics NVDA - Up, Up, UP - Goldman Target = $800 - NVIDIA surpassed Amazon (AMZN) in market value for a brief period on Monday More NVDA - Company is building a new business unit focused on designing bespoke chips for cloud computing firms and others, including advanced artificial intelligence (AI) processors, nine sources familiar with its plans told Reuters. - The dominant global designer and supplier of AI chips aims to capture a portion of an exploding market for custom AI chips and shield itself from the growing number of companies pursuing alternatives to its products. Altman (ChatGPT) - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is seeking trillions of dollars in investments to overhaul the global semiconductor industry - Altman has long talked of the supply and demand problem with AI chips - He's considering a project that would increase global chip-building capacity, - Altman could need to raise between $5 trillion and $7 trillion for the endeavor - Reportedly in talks with different investors, including the government of the United Arab Emirates. Waymo Cars Attacked - On Saturday night, a crowd surrounded a white sport utility vehicle that was moving along a street in the city's Chinatown district (San Fran) - A person jumped onto the hood of the Waymo vehicle and broke its windshield. Another person also jumped on the hood 30 seconds later as some in the crowd clapped in approval - Fireworks thrown in car and set on fire. - On previous occasions in San Francisco and Phoenix, Arizona, groups have disrupted the operations of self-driving vehicles, blocking their path, trying to enter the vehicles and jumping on their hoods Amazon - Bezos unloading shares - $2 billion last week - Plans to sell 50 million shares over the next year or so Israel - Downgraded by Moody's

Big Week - AND HOW! Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%. Shakeup at Morgan Stanley Banking Sector Fears (NYCB) The latest Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Big Week - AND HOW! - Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small (Regional Bank woes) --- AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%. - Shakeup at Morgan Stanley - Banking Sector Fears (NYCB) - AI induced euphoria - is that a thing? Market intoxicated on it. Market Update - Powell was Hawkish - Markets Didn't Care (past Wednesday) - HUGE Employment Surprise - Market Didn't Care (after 10 minutes) - META/Facebook Earning - Yes Markets cared - all day Friday - Undercurrent of something happening (Region Bank breakdown - NYCB) - China comes out strong with market supportive measures - market rallies 5% Employment Report - Much hotter than anticipated - Treasury Yields and the USD spiked - Unemployment rate at 3.7% (expected to tick up to 3.8% - Briefing.com: This report is not likely to persuade the FOMC to cut rates as soon, or as much, as the market had hoped. As a result, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday), according to the CME FedWatch Tool. - markets were a bit flushed on the initial report but tossed it aside and preferred to focus on META earnings Rate Cut Odd for MARCH - As a result of the Fed meeting and employment report, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday), SO REACHING - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that while the January job report was impressive on the surface, underlying details were not as strong. - “The headline number was almost breathtaking,” Goolsbee said in an interview on the “PBS NewsHour” program. - “If you peel back the onion a little bit, it’s not as strong as that headline number advertises … but it’s still very strong,” he said. - In particular, he noted that hours worked fell 0.2% last month despite the jump in net new jobs. Amazon - Blowout - Earnings per share: $1.00 vs. 80 cents expected by LSEG - Revenue: $170 billion vs. $166.2 billion expected - Amazon Web Services: $24.2 billion vs. $24.2 billion, according to StreetAccount - Advertising: $14.7 billion vs. $14.2 billion, according to StreetAccount - Amazon said first-quarter sales will be between $138 billion and $143.5 billion, representing growth of 8% to 13%. Analysts were expecting revenue of $142.1 billion, according to analysts. META - BLOW-OOOUUUUTTTT - Meta Platforms beats by $0.51, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; - FY24 total expense guidance unchanged at $94-$99 bln, - CapEx guidance of $30-$37 bln, up $2.0 bln at high end; - They stopped spending on META. - Initiates quarterly dividend of $0.50/share, also announces $50 bln increase to share repurchase program. - Stock up 21% Apple Earnings - headline: Apple beats by $0.08, beats on revs; iPhones and services beat; China revenue declines 13.1% - Magic words: CEO Tim Cook thinks there is a huge opportunity to for Apple on AI, but he does not want to get ahead of things. - Apple reports Q1 iPhone revenue of $69.

HUGE Earnings - Most impactful week of quarter. China continues to try to save markets Push Back? Powell Meets Markets Wednesday. PCE - FED FAV - The Latest. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Jury Duty? - Big Week for ECO - Jobs Report Friday - Penmanship - making a comeback? - Is this a Capitulation Moment - China? -- War Brewing - Dragging US into Mid-East Conflict? Market Update - HUGE Earnings - Most impactful week of quarter - China continues to try to save markets - Push Back? Powell Meets Markets Wednesday - PCE - FED FAV - The Latest PODCAST DEAL - Sirius XM Holdings Inc. has acquired certain exclusive rights to SmartLess, the hit podcast hosted by actors Will Arnett, Jason Bateman and Sean Hayes, as part of a larger deal between the satellite radio company and SmartLess Media. - The three-year accord is worth more than $100 million, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified. SUPER- Bowl - Tickets to attend the Super Bowl in Las Vegas — a rematch between the 2020 contenders — are the most expensive ever for the event, going for an average $9,815 each so far, according to reseller TickPick. - The price is 70% more than last year’s game, which was held in Arizona. The previous record of $7,046 was set in 2021 in Tampa, Florida, when the game was played at sharply reduced capacity Rate Hike Probabilities - First move for markets from Oct '23 was the HOPE and LOVE of Fed Rate Cuts to come - As soon as March - (The we got the AI 'rager' that helped support Bull markets) - - NOW, Rate CUT hopes fading - markets ignoring facts --- Rate Cut Chart Odds - Fading Rate Cut Odds Reporting this week: - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft --- Huge components for NAZ100 and S&P500 Microsoft - Microsoft was expected to report a 15.8% jump in quarterly revenue, its best growth in nearly two years, as rising adoption of its products infused with generative AI fuels demand for its cloud services. -- ACTUAL: ---- Microsoft's Q2 revenue was $62.02 billion, a 16% increase, surpassing the estimate of $61.14 billion. ----- Earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $2.93, beating the consensus by $0.16. -- Stock even A/H Google/Alphabet - GOOGL company achieved a YoY revenue increase of 13.5%, reaching $86.31 billion, surpassing expectations. - Google Advertising reported $65.52 billion in revenue, showing an 11.0% YoY growth but falling short of expecations. -- Stock Down 4% AH More Earnings - TSLA - Horrible! - Earnings per share: 71 cents, adjusted vs. 74 cents expected. - Revenue: $25.17 billion vs. $25.6 billion expected. - Operating margin for the quarter came in at 8.2%, down from the year-ago quarter's figure of 16% - Tesla said in its investor presentation that vehicle volume growth in 2024 "may be notably lower" than last year's growth rate as the company works toward launching its "next-generation vehicle" in Texas. - Stock down 14% on the news ---- Stock market cap still down 40% since purchase of Twitter in 2022 AMD - - Met expectations but guided DOWN - So much for the big rise based on NOTHING! - Stocks DOWN 10% Tech Layoffs - Silicon Valley’s tech companies are slashing headcount at a rapid pace. - Since the start of January, some 23,670 workers have been laid off from 85 tech companies, according to the website Layoffs.fyi. - Some are laying off staff in parts of the business to invest more heavily in developing AI products. China - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has said that investors will no longer be able to lend out shares for trading purpo...

Those margins - not a pretty look. Trouble in Airlines Space while the love for Apple remains. More Stimulus but hidden in the details. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Trouble in Airlines Space - Apple Love Remains - More Stimulus - Hidden in the Details - BULL TAKE OFF - No Stopping Us Now - Right? (Overconfidence?) Market Update - Bitcoin - Sub $40k on Monday - Why? - Chatter IPO on the way (again) - New Highs for markets - Pulled by a few stocks - And on The Margin - A Margin Crunch - Rates moving up - VIX moving down DONATIONS - HEY it is 2024! NEW HIGHS - A New Bull Market has just been declared. Out of the BEAR as we eclipse the previous high set in 2022. Airlines - JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines on Friday said they are appealing a federal judge's ruling issued earlier this week that blocks the two carriers' planned merger on antitrust grounds. - JetBlue had planned to buy Spirit for $3.8 billion in a deal struck in the summer of 2022. A federal judge on Tuesday, however, barred that combination, saying it would eliminate the budget carrier and mean higher prices for cost-conscious consumers. - Spirit drop 62% last week - trying to recover a bit - BUT, if Sprint fails - doesn't that mean that the elimination of a budget carrier could mean higher prices for cost conscious consumers? ---- They will appeal, give concessions and win. ---- Spirit up 90% since low last week Bitcoin Sinking - Bitcoin sub $40,000 on Monday as the sell-off continues - Blaming it on selling of the GrayScale and beig bought in NEW Sppot ETFs - Thought question: If Selling Apple in Fidelity and Buying in Schwab - does that impact share price? Banks Suing The Fed? - Big banks have hired one of the country’s top trial lawyers and are preparing to sue the Federal Reserve — a nearly unthinkable challenge — if sweeping new industry regulations aren’t watered down. - Eugene Scalia, the son of the former Supreme Court justice and a well-known conservative litigator, is quietly drawing up a lawsuit seeking to block the proposed rules on behalf of the Bank Policy Institute, a trade group that represents JPMorgan, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and others, people familiar with the matter said. - It would be the first time in recent memory that the industry has sued the Fed, and a departure from standard halls-of-power persuasion efforts that try to avoid antagonizing its chief regulator. More Airlines - The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recommended that airlines operating Boeing 737-900ER jets inspect door plugs to ensure that they are properly secured after some operators reported unspecified issues with bolts upon inspections. - Regulators have stepped up scrutiny on Boeing after a Jan. 5 mid-air panel blowout on an eight-week-old Alaska Airlines MAX 9 jet that left a gaping hole in the aircraft. Boeing has sought to contain the damage, appointing an independent advisor to examine quality control in its manufacturing processes while numerous planes remain grounded. - In its new "Safety Alert for Operators," the FAA said that some airlines had conducted additional inspections on the 737-900ER mid-exit door plugs and had noted "findings with bolts during the maintenance inspections." Apple - - Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab ended Samsung Electronics' 12-year run as the largest seller of smartphones in the world, after commanding a 20% market share in 2023, according to a report from International Data Corp. - Samsung ended the year with a 19.4% share, followed by China's Xiaomi, Oppo and Transsion,

- BIG News - Apple loses to.... - World Economic Forum Davos Happening - Picking on Rich Peeps AGAIN - let them eat stimulus! - Best of CES? - EVs getting some shade thrown - Bitcoin ETF approved PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - BIG News - Apple Loses to.... - World Economic Forum Davos Happening - Picking on Rich Peeps again - Best of CES? - EVs getting some shade thrown - Bitcoin ETF approved Market Update - Natural Gas price on the move - huge jump - 3 downgrades for Apple last week - Bank earnings - mixed, but could say disappoint - Another Stop-gap bill to AVERT a government shutdown Can You Believe this? - Microsoft ended Friday's U.S. trading session as the most valuable publicly traded company, surpassing Apple after briefly topping the iPhone maker during intraday trading on Thursday. - Shares of Microsoft climbed more than 3% for the week, bringing the company's market cap to $2.89 trillion, while Apple's stock dropped by over 3%, lowering its valuation to $2.87 trillion. More Apple - Apple said on Thursday that former Vice President Al Gore will retire from the company's board next month after serving as a director since 2003. - Other: 3 Downgrades last week! (Stock still up 2.5% for the week although down 3.5% for the year 2024 More Wealth News - Just in time for Davos - pick on the rich - LET THEM EAT STIMULUS! - The world's five richest men have more than doubled their vast wealth since 2020, according to an Oxfam report, as the charity calls for curbs on "corporate power." - The report found that the combined fortune of the world's wealthiest people — Tesla CEO Elon Musk, LVMH boss Bernard Arnault and family, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, and veteran investor Warren Buffett — has jumped from $405 billion in March 2020 to $869 billion in November 2023. - Seven of the world's ten biggest companies have a billionaire as their CEO or main shareholder, the report found. Meanwhile, the world's richest 1% of people own 43% of global financial assets, according to the research, such as publicly listed instruments like stocks and bonds, along with stakes in privately-held businesses. - "If current trends continue, the world will have its first trillionaire within a decade but poverty won't be eradicated for another 229 years," Oxfam said. Even MORE Davos - The global economy faces a year of subdued growth prospects and uncertainty stemming from geopolitical strife, tight financing conditions and the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, a survey of top economists released on Monday found. - Conducted each year ahead of the World Economic Forum's (WEF) annual meeting in the Swiss resort of Davos, the survey of 60-plus chief economists drawn globally from the private and public sectors attempts to sketch priorities for policymakers and business leaders. (meaningless) - Some 56% of those surveyed expect overall global economic conditions to weaken this year, with a high degree of regional divergence. While majorities saw moderate or stronger growth in China and the United States, there was broad consensus that Europe would muster only weak or very weak growth. - The outlook for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific was more positive, with very high majorities expecting at least moderate growth in 2024. - 70% see financial conditions loosening (rate cuts and stimulus) as inflation slows Speaking of Rate Cuts (NOT) - The European Central Bank may defy market expectations and hold off on starting interest rate cuts during the whole of 2024, the institution's Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said Monday.

Announcing the Winner of the CTP Cup 2024! SECURE Act Benefits for 529 Plans China - turn around in gaming rule discussion Boeing Under Pressure - Loose Nuts? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - And we are back - Happy New year - Welcome to 2024 - Announcing the Winner of the CTP Cup 2024! - SECURE Act Benefits for 529 Plans - China - turn around in gaming rule discussion - Boeing Under Pressure - Loose Nuts? Market Update - Worst start to the year since ... 2015 (Whatever that means) - Market continues to have little muscle memory (Still down for the YTD) - CES getting those AI juices flowing again - BITCOIN ETF - News OUT! WELL- HACKED - Changed - WOW!!! ** Start of year 2024 - Looking for you to write dome reviews on Spotify , Apple Podcasts, Amazon Podcasts - Wherever - spread the word people! Start with this!!!!!!! -Bitcoin on the move - 13 companies filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF - Rumors that some decision will be made early this week - Bitcoin tops $47,000 on the news - May be sell the news moment.. ---- 4:15PM TODAY - UPDATE: Today the SEC grants approval for #Bitcoin ETFs for listing on all registered national securities exchanges. The approved Bitcoin ETFs will be subject to ongoing surveillance and compliance measures to ensure continued investor protection. (SEC Titter) --- 4:27PM Bitcoin down - explained as sell the news BUT- Gary Gensler private account: @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products. ---- SO, was this a not approved or a not approved YET???? Podcasts Rule - Killing the Competition (or??) - Radio giant Audacy has filed for bankruptcy protection amid a slump in advertising revenue. - The Philadelphia-based company, which oversees major podcast and radio operations and has acquired CBS Radio, said it has filed a Chapter 11 petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas after a restructuring agreement with a majority of its debtholders. - The agreement will see the company cut roughly 80% of its nearly $2 billion in debt. No Ceiling - The U.S. federal government's total public debt has reached $34 trillion for the first time, the U.S. Treasury Department reported last week. - Each party is blaming the other - Biden plans to reduce U.S. deficits by $2.5 trillion over 10 years by increasing taxes on large corporations and wealthy Americans and cutting spending on pharmaceuticals and tax breaks for oil companies. - Trump wants the tax cuts to be permanent. Bad Start - Traders hoping that a pan-markets year-end rally would pick up where it left off got the opposite on 2024’s first trading day, a session that featured one of the worst-ever concerted drops in stocks and bonds to start a year.| - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) each fell 0.6% Tuesday, the first time they’ve both slumped so much to start the year since the bond gauge began trading in 2002. --- First week was not plesant for most areas of the market - Looks like people were holding on to avoid paying taxes in 2023 (April 2024) ----- Then dumped Starbucks - Starbucks app: Coffee giant accused of rigging payments to the tune of nearly $900 million over 5 years - This is the probelm with gift cards and these plans - so much is forgotten about - “Starbucks rigs its payment platform so consumers are encouraged to leave unspent money on their cards and apps,” said Chris Carter, campaign manager for the group in a statement.

All sorts of good stuff in this episode. From M&A to the quick banking crisis of 2023. Some good laughs and fun throughout the year. Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together! DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Follow Ryan on Twitter

Apple watch ban - stock unaffected. A surprise with housing prices. A grab-bag bull phrase being dusted off. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Slow volume - boring market (you know what they say) - China is testing some market moving ideas - New Year Coming - markets Closed Monday - Another GRAB-BAG Phase - Dusted off.... Market Update - The real Santa Claus rally - the final days - House prices - what? - Boosting Buybacks - One Company - China wrecks markets - for a day Home Price Index - October S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4.9% vs 5.0% consensus - Prior reading was +3.9% Grab-Bag - Bull Phrase - Cash on The Sidelines - The stock market is set to see a significant boost next year, thanks to a record $6 trillion and a growing cash pile in money market funds - according to FundStrat -- (UBERBULL Shop) - - Fundstat's logic: If the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates next year, this would hold more true as the risk-free interest rate on money market funds will also fall. This would make holding cash in money market funds less appealing as compared to putting it in the stock market. China - Gamming - Latest: -- China approved 105 domestic games on Monday, the latest indication that Beijing is softening its stance after its move to tighten industry restrictions led to a $80 billion rout last week. --- The titles included those operated by Tencent Holdings Ltd. and NetEase Inc., China’s two leading game publishers that have been pummeled by Beijing’s new rules. Monday’s approvals show the Chinese authorities support the development of online gaming, an industry association said in a post on WeChat republished by the official Xinhua news agency. - What happened a few days earlier - - On Friday, Chinese officials announced new draft rules aimed at limiting how much gamers could spend and restricting rewards that encourage them to spend more time online. - The announcement was a surprise and ended up spooking investors and sending markets into a tailspin. - Games giant Tencent saw its share price drop as much as 16% while the stock of its rival NetEase tumbled a record 28%. Shares of the social-media service Bilibili, which is popular with gamers, tanked 14%. Consumer Sentiment! - December Consumer Confidence 110.7 vs. 104.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 101.0 from 102.0 - Look at this chart and look at a chart of equity markets - pretty much identical. Wealth Effect is real and will play a significant role in how inflation/disinflation/deflation plays out. Spending Report - Mastercard Spending Pulse reports sales increased 3.1% YoY during the holiday season (Nov 1 trhu Dec 24); NRF predicted spending would increase 3-4% in 2023 - Restaurants (+7.8%), Grocery (+2.1%), and Apparel (+2.4%) had the best performance. - Jewelry (-2.0%) and Electronics (-0.4%) were laggards. China Car Announcement - Nio launched the ET9 EV - The company also confirmed the launch of a low-priced brand called Alps. - Nio will focus on the European market in 2024. - High end is supposedly in competion with the Porche Panarama and the Maybach - The ET9 executive sedan, positioned in the same class as Mercedes Benz’s Maybach and Porsche’s Panamera series, is expected to start delivery in the first quarter of 2025 at an estimated price of 800,000 yuan (S$152,355), Apple Stops Selling Watch - Stock barley budges - Apple on Tuesday appealed a decision to ban imports of its watches based on a complaint from medical monitoring technology company Masimo, after President Joe Biden's administration declined to veto a government tribunal.

The train is leaving the station - get on or get run over. Inflation is turning and now there is what? Fed rally - just in time for Christmas. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024 - More layoffs - End pf year - bullish sentiment and candy cane dreams - AMAZING - NOW Deflation is starting to bubble up - Fed-Ex Earnings... Market Update - Data matters - but only bull case - Yields - next stop? What is it saying about the future economy? - Adobe M&A stopage - Homebuilders - hitting new highs - Hacking - another hit - Supply Chain Redux? Fed Rally - Then Chill - This is getting out of hand... - Just days after a Federal Reserve meeting that penciled in an ample course of interest rate cuts next year, which in turn unleashed a broad rally in financial markets, one of the U.S. central bank's top policymakers pushed back on the ebullience on Friday. - "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now," New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview with CNBC. (WHAT????) - When it comes to the question of lowering rates, "I just think it's just premature to be even thinking about that" as the central bank continues to mull whether monetary policy is in the right place to help guide inflation back to its 2% target, he said. DEFLATION concept entering the market - Deflation is happening on the "goods" side of the U.S. economy, or the tangible objects that Americans buy, economists said. - For one, a strong U.S. dollar makes imported goods cheaper. Some of those savings get passed on to consumers, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. ----- A strong dollar is a likely contributor to deflation in certain categories like household furniture and appliances, Zandi said. Additionally, weaker demand may be a factor: Households that spent liberally on home goods in the early days of Covid-19 lockdowns are likely no longer doing so, he added. --- Broadly, the pandemic snarled global supply chains, causing shortages that fueled big spikes in prices. Energy costs surged when Russia invaded Ukraine, pushing up transportation and other distribution costs. ------ Now, supply-chain disruptions are largely in the rearview mirror, economists said. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, for example, has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels from historic highs at the end of 2021. - Some prices, like those for airline tickets and eggs, are also falling back to earth after hitting record-high levels. The latter, for example, soared largely due to a historically deadly bout of avian flu among egg-laying hens. Egg and airline ticket prices are down about 22% and 12% in the past year, according to CPI data. Year Over Year November - Not Seasonally Adjusted - Does not include rents/housing. ( A big part of the the CPI index) Deflation - Food/Energy Deflation - All Items (X) Red Sea - War is hell - now ships diverted - Have to go around Cape Horn adding massive time for deliveries - Will this cause any price hikes? - Oil Prices? FedEx Earnings - FedEx shares tumbled 8% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the package-delivery giant lowered its revenue forecast as weaker demand hit sales. - The company said it expects a low-single-digit decline in revenue for the fiscal year, down from a previous forecast for flat sales year-over-year - less that analysts predicted. - It's the second consecutive quarter FedEx has lowered its sales outlook. - Meanwhile - Apple lowered its numbers for several quarters and the stock still rallies (Buybacks) Layoffs Auto - General Motors plans to lay off about 1,300 workers in Michigan starting early next year due to ve...

Up Up Up - Santa will be pleased. Diverging outcomes. Interesting M&A activity and a blast from the past. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024 - Deals - opened and closed - M&A - Two outcomes - same datapaoints - Diverging Outcomes - Caught Red handed - Guess the Bank (again) - Gamestop's new strategy Market Update - Bitcoin Update - Boom and Busting - Just as everyone getting back in - Big News for CRISPR - Big price too! - Gas prices -LOW - OIL - keeps going lower - VIX - 5-year LOW History: Jan. 5, 2022: The Dow hit its all-time high of 36,952.65. Today's Close: 36,577.94 SHAMELESS PLUGS - H&C/JCD VIX - Sub 13 print - - Lowest since 2018! - No Fear - no hedging DataPoints - Soft landing - not much different than a vibrant economy - How do yo have a vibrant economy when Fed trying to slow down? - Data supports hard and soft landing - Diverging outcomes - which is it? Caught AGAIN - Wells Fargo was snared in an industrywide probe into mortgage bankers' use of loan discounts last year, CNBC has learned.| - The discounts, known as pricing exceptions, are used by mortgage personnel to help secure deals in competitive markets. At Wells Fargo, for instance, bankers could request pricing exceptions that typically lowered a customer's APR by between 25 to 75 basis points. - The practice, used for decades across the home loan industry, has triggered regulators' interest in recent years over possible violations of U.S. fair lending laws. Black and female borrowers got fewer pricing exceptions than other customers, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has found. More Competition - AMD! - Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft said at an AMD investor event last week they will use AMD's newest AI chip, the Instinct MI300X. - If AMD's latest high-end chip is good enough for the technology companies and cloud service providers building and serving AI models when it starts shipping early next year, it could lower costs for developing AI models, and put competitive pressure on Nvidia' - NVDA slid for a hot second - then buying happened again.... - AMD stock up to $137 (about 10% from comments) Bitcoin - Bitcoin hit $44,000 last Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds. - Bitcoin down $4200 on this money... - Jamie Dimon thrashes out about crypto - ---"I've always been deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin, et cetera," --- "If I was the government, I'd close it down," M&A - U.S. health insurer Cigna has ended its attempt to negotiate an acquisition of rival Humana after the pair failed to agree on price - Instead - Cigna announced plans to buy back $10 billion worth of shares - Shares rallied 12% on the news - HOW ABOUT LOWERING HEALTH INSURANCE COSTS??? More M&A - An investor group consisting of Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital has made a $5.8 billion offer to take department store chain Macy's private, according to a person familiar with the matter on Sunday. - Is this for real or just pump and dump stunt? - Stock is up 70% in last 30 days - you think anyone knew about this? - WHY would someone buy a dying department store? Real Estate? New Strategy - Ganestop - OH MY - In its quarterly report released last Wednesday night, GameStop announced two changes to its corporate investment plan: 1) company cash can now be used to buy equities instead of just short-term debt, 2) and that Cohen is in charge of the investments. Blast from the Past - Picard, is the lawyer working on collecting for Madoff claims

Everyone is bullish - that seems a bit overdone at this point. Tax Trap - Watch-out! Economic data remains strong - jobs data showing weakness (JOLTS) Bond yields sink - herd mentality and Fed bulls working it. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - So many bulls! Deafening.... (we know what that usually means..) - A new book for young investors - can we discuss or still a secret? - China - credit rating issue - My favorite charade,, scheme, scam of 2023 Market Update - Gold at all-time high! - Bitcoin Update - Moving - Alt assets picking up - good or bad? - Big money into Money markets - watch out for this trap Bitcoin - Bitcoin hit $44,000 on Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds. - Bitcoin is up 55% from the year's low of $26,533 on Oct. 11. - UP 165% YTD - Still way off record high of $69k - Nov 2021 Gold - Hitting ATH -- Reasons?? Risk -off or USD sinking? - Gold miners ETF still 10% below 2023 peak --- Time to buy? Rare Earth Metals - Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for electric vehicles, cell phones and other electronics. - China began to rapidly expand in the industry starting during the 1980s and now controls 87% of global rare earths refining capacity - US spots in Alaska and other western states starting to look for ways to mine - in "clean" and efficient manner - FYI - RARE is not really rare - Considered RARE only due to difficulty in extraction process - These elements rarely exist in pure form; they are usually found within other minerals, making them costly to mine. Oil Prices - Now Sitting at $72 --- OPEC+ can't seem to agree and now concern demand waning CHINA - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded its outlook on China's government credit ratings to negative from stable - Moody's expects Beijing's support and possible bailouts for distressed local governments and state-owned enterprises to diminish China's fiscal, economic and institutional strength. - Moody's though retained China's "A1" long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds, - Seems like this is going to be happening for a while - rolling downgrades of countries with excessive debt Canada - Greater Toronto Area home prices fell in November as higher borrowing costs crimped affordability, while the level of sales edged higher for the first time in six months - The seasonally adjusted average home price fell 2.2% in November from October to C$1,104,062 ($815,769), marking the fourth decline in the last five months. - New listings climbed 16.5% year-over-year but decelerating from the 38% pace of increase posted in October. Switzerland - A major Swiss bank admitted to conspiring with U.S. taxpayers and others to hide over $5.6 billion from the Internal Revenue Service - Banque Pictet, the private banking division of the 218-year-old Pictet Group, will pay about $122.9 million in restitution and penalties as part of an agreement with prosecutors - Where does that money go? - Between 2008 and 2014, the bank had 1,637 accounts on behalf of American clients, who collectively evaded approximately $50.6 million in U.S. taxes, the DOJ said. - The accounts themselves held more than $5.6 billion of the roughly $20 billion in total assets from U.S. taxpayers that the bank managed during the relevant period. ----- Does taxpayer have to pay anything? - Swiss banks are not so special anymore... VIX and Gamma - An epic rally in U.S. stocks has sent Wall Street's fear gauge to a post-pandemic low.

Heading toward the barn - traders looking for Santa to come though for December November was a pretty spectacular month for stocks... Oil - OPEC+ making some moves - crude prices diving. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Announcing the Winner - CROC's and Entries for the CTP Cup 2023 - Thanksgiving is over - heading into the end of the year and investors appear excited - More strikes on the horizon - Black Friday numbers are in - surprise - no surprise| - Temporary Cease Fire - Extended a few days - A Limerick Market Update - Short week - great month.... Best month in 2023 for most indices - AI got its grove back - Microsoft saved the day ! - - VIX hits low since the pandemic - KRI indicator +4 and holding with several clusters - Yields holding down - Housing numbers poor and economy slowly slowing - OIL! OPEC+ delays meeting - oil plunges on Wednesday... - Fed Parade of Talking heads is at it again.... Following: - Slap in Face? OpenAI not anticipated to offer MSFT a board seat on its new board, according to The Information - "It’s a sign that the board will prioritize safety practices ahead of investor returns." Word Watch - Seeing this word starting to seep into all sorts of areas - "ELEVATED" - Schwab ad: "An elevated experience tailor made for trader minds" - Pinky up! December - Traders and Investors heading for home.... - Santa Rally is a possibility, especially if we see a quick dump to get rid of some of this froth.... - So much bad news is baked in and plenty of momentum - USD breaking below the 50-day - good for stocks and commods VIX - FRIDAY - The VIX index of implied volatility on the S&P500 plunged to its lowest close since just before the COVID-19 shock unfolded in 2020 - an extreme some fear will inspire demand for options hedging and reversion back toward historic mean. It ticked back up to regain a foothold above 13 today. - This is interesting as other metrics are calling for extreme overheat - KRI +4 and holding with clusters (+5 or +6 is very concerning) - S&P 500, NASDAQ all high (HIGH) levels of RSI - Spearman +97 (HIGH) ----- McClellan +137 (complex above zero line) Markets Love it! - Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) in Q&A says if inflation continues to fall for several more months, the policy rate could be lowered; if there is a consistent decline in inflation, no reason for rates to remain really high Black Friday Update - Cut and paste every year - US online revenue up 7.5% from last year: Adobe Analytics (NOTE: Nominal - not adjusted for inflation) - Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US, Adobe Analytics reported, offering a positive sign for retailers facing lackluster sales forecasts for the holiday season. - Demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment helped boost the day’s online sales by 7.5% compared with last year. - Consumers extended their budgets by leaning on buy-now, pay-later options, which climbed by 72% from the week before Thanksgiving (AFRM stock?) --- On the other hand: US Black Friday sales rise 2.5% (less than anticipated) according to Mastercard and many looking for bargains - E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year as consumers shopped for deals online, while in-store sales increased by 1.1%, MasterCard Spendingpulse said. Bank Closures (JCD) - Big banks like PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase filed for closing several of their branches in multiple states last week amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns over the past years. - Altogether, banks filed for shutting down 64 branches.