The Final Bell

 Tyson closing plant in KS  Cargill with cutbacks  Cash trade is talked strong  Will producer hold out till the 11th hour?  Sale barn movement & heifers staying home  Hog pressure  Grains chopping sideways  Crush number update and pressure on meal market  Slowing down of exports  South American weather favorable

 Is China trying to make a tariff trade deal?  Holiday trade continues  Buying support at lower range for beans  South American weather still looks good  45Z got kicked down the road  December basis for corn & beans?  Tyson/Cargill and the cattle market

 Coming off a holiday trade  Buy & fill  “Hit the floor” in the feeders  `Goldman roll set to start  Cash feeders are hot-can it continue this week?  Good rally over the past 13 days  Demand wasn’t an issue for hogs today  China back again for more U.S. beans overnight  Fall fertilizer application concerns  Solid weather for South America nearby  Basis thoughts for corn & beans

The corn and soybean markets have shown mixed action today. Corn remains under moderate pressure due to seasonal trends and ongoing harvest progress, while soybeans have been fluctuating near previous lows, reflecting uncertainty in both the supply chain and export markets. Funds' Impact: Speculative funds continue to influence these markets. Managed money has shifted positions, with recent buying activity in corn, though soybean positioning remains cautious as traders assess South American weather and global demand prospects.

 Why did the markets move Tuesday to revert back today?  What is going on with soy oil?  Feeder cattle with new world screwworm  High cash cattle market  Personal income rose  Open interest records in the hogs  Good consumer demand-but Mexico 40% of pork exports  More thoughts on Trump tariffs

 Tariff weight & potential impact  Corn set back  Beans hovering near previous lows  Pre-holiday trade action  Global stage for grains  Strong range for the feeder cattle  How short bought is the south on cattle?

 Holiday trade mode underway  EU wheat down Risk off?  What is going on in gold & silver?  Dollar down but off the lows a few weeks ago  Inflationary trade going on?  CFTC Report  Volatility in the cattle market

 Split market action  Grain under pressure  South American export & production numbers  Managed money going forward  Better than expected cash  Sale barn strong

 Russia Ukraine tension  Trump policy on trade  New lows in soybeans  South American growing  China, hogs & the funds  Live cattle struggled while feeders saw a positive trade

 Russia Ukraine tension  China agreement with Brazil  South American growing  Supply demand fundamentals  FEDS fewer rate cuts?  Retail data for the month of October

 Russia Ukraine tension  Weekend headlines pulling attention  Geo politics vs. trade issues  Does the trade care?  South American progress  Dollar trade

 Seasonality’s of the markets  South America weather  New administration  Strong U.S. dollar  Russia Ukraine situation geo political  Cattle hold onto some positives

The recovery in the corn, soybean, and wheat markets today appears to be driven by several factors, including improved export activity and some technical buying. Market sentiment may also be influenced by shifts in global weather patterns, particularly in South America, and by updates on U.S. harvest progress. Key Points: NOPA Crush Numbers: The latest crush report showed strong soybean processing, indicating healthy domestic demand for soy products. This could bolster market confidence in soybean fundamentals. Corn and Soybean Export Demand: Export sales for corn and soybeans have been robust, with particular interest from key markets like Mexico and China. These positive signals may encourage traders to adjust their outlooks. As always, reassess your marketing plans based on export trends and price opportunities. Corn Demand for Ethanol: Ethanol demand remains steady, with production maintaining levels that support corn prices. However, fluctuating crude oil prices can influence ethanol profitability, which might impact future demand for corn. Mississippi River Levels: Water levels have seen slight improvements in some areas due to recent rains but remain a concern for grain transportation. This continues to add logistical challenges, which may pressure basis levels.

The markets remain on edge with election expectations shaping the forward outlook. Weak prices continue to dominate conversations as the "elephant in the room," causing concerns across the agricultural sector. In the cattle market, midday trading saw a noticeable breakdown, signaling cautious sentiment. Meanwhile, the hog market faced its own pressures, with shifts leaving traders analyzing the potential causes and broader implications for livestock markets overall.

The market is adjusting to a complex mix of factors this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been a focal point, adding to broader global expectations across markets. Flash sales activity remains a driving factor, with an eye on Brazilian growing conditions, which have been generally favorable. Additionally, the impact of elections continues to weigh on traders' minds, creating a level of uncertainty in pricing movements. For cattle, heavy weights and slower cash sales are contributing to cautious sentiment as the industry assesses near-term demand and pricing prospects.

The grain markets are watching several pivotal factors this week, with money management strategies potentially being the biggest influence. Last week, China purchased about half of its grain needs from the U.S., underscoring the ongoing influence of the Chinese economy on commodity trade. South American weather is improving, leading to favorable growing conditions that may support their yields and impact global grain supply. In livestock, both live and feeder cattle have seen interest from large buyers, helping support prices in recent days. However, questions remain about the durability of this rebound; a shift in fundamentals could put pressure on prices if it were to turn negative. The cattle market’s next steps will largely depend on whether this momentum can hold.

The grain markets started the week off sluggishly after an overbought Friday, leaving traders to wonder if this trend will spill over. The dollar strengthened significantly, adding further pressure to commodity prices. Meanwhile, wheat remains attractively priced, but political discussions and uncertainty continue to weigh on market sentiment. In the soybean complex, soyoil movements and political factors play significant roles, while traders may need to pause to reevaluate before making further moves.

The latest WASDE report brought some mixed reactions, with overall production numbers closely aligning with expectations but a few regional surprises in state-level yields. The corn balance sheet reflected steady demand but highlighted some adjustments in exports and feed usage, keeping stocks relatively tight. Soybean numbers appeared slightly more bullish, with yields revised in key states, reinforcing a tighter supply outlook. The market response was interesting—corn remained stable, while soybeans saw an uptick, possibly fueled by traders' positioning ahead of global demand cues. Technically, both corn and soybean markets show resilience, with soybeans holding key support levels and corn testing resistance, suggesting some upward potential in the short term if demand holds strong.

This week, markets are reacting to shifting trade dynamics amid "Trump Trades" and expectations around a potential Fed interest rate cut, which could provide support across various sectors. Ahead of the WASDE report, there's heightened anticipation, particularly in the soybean complex, where prices have shown explosive movement. Meanwhile, cattle markets are finding solid support, suggesting resilience even as other factors create volatility. These combined influences are keeping traders on edge, awaiting clarity from upcoming reports and policy shifts.

This week, markets are digesting the impact of recent election results, with many eyes on how these outcomes might shape future policies. In agriculture, the StoneX Customer Harvest Survey is offering fresh insights into yield expectations, which could show market sentiment ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve meeting adds another layer of anticipation as investors await signals on the direction of interest rates. Consumer sentiment continues to be a key focus, with recent reports hinting at how economic uncertainty might influence spending patterns and market movement in the coming months.