The Final Bell

Early short covering did little to support grain prices, as shifting weather models introduced new uncertainties. Stock movement has reverted back to trade, complicating the market outlook. The risk for old crop corn remains high, driven by fluctuating conditions and market dynamics. Meanwhile, feeder cattle prices are influenced by corn movement, creating a complex interplay between these two key agricultural sectors.

The midday GFS forecast indicates hot and dry conditions, which could impact both global and U.S. agricultural supplies. Export sales are currently lagging, raising concerns about market performance. The importance of currency fluctuations in the global market is becoming increasingly evident. Meanwhile, the cattle market is experiencing a strong day, though the latest On Feed numbers may reveal significant changes for the south. Additionally, economic factors such as consumer GDP and increasing layoffs are adding layers of complexity.

The latest crop ratings are in, providing crucial data as we approach the USDA's August estimate. Speculation about potential production reductions is growing, especially as warmer weather patterns set in. Meanwhile, the Black Sea region is closely monitored due to its weather conditions impacting global markets. In the bean market, a potential window of opportunity might be emerging. However, challenges persist in the livestock sector, with concerns about an insufficient supply of cattle. Additionally, the interplay of politics and market dynamics continues to influence agricultural trends and forecasts.

The corn and soybean markets today appear cautiously optimistic. The crop progress report yesterday did not bring any major surprises, but it underscored ongoing concerns about crop conditions. As we move into next week, crop conditions are likely to depend heavily on weather forecasts, which are currently mixed with some regions expecting beneficial rains while others may continue to experience dryness. The Hard Red Spring Wheat tour this week is expected to uncover a range of crop conditions, which could influence market sentiment. Key factors to watch in the corn and soybean markets going forward include next week's weather conditions and their impact on yields, crop condition reports, and any shifts in global demand and export activity.

 Commercial selling happening on the cattle  Could we see a turnaround Tuesday?  Thoughts on hogs going higher  Grains saw funds hitting the exit door

 Computer issues overnight  Dramatic change in election outcomes  Crop conditions  Weather  Drop in the cattle market

 Disappointing cattle trade  Cattle hit sell signals  Cattle inventory for July not happening  Stdy cash going into COF report  Hogs technically looking better  Grains is a tough one to call  Market gets itself there in ahead of time  Low 4’s now what on corn

 Is this a turnaround in the grains  Friday’s report was a miss…where do we go from here  China building up commodity stocks  Black sea region weather  U.S. weather damage  Nice strength in the cash market

*Why has the corn and soybean markets been so volatile the last few weeks? *When will the funds stop their selling of corn and soybeans? *What is the next piece of information that could cause the markets to adjust? *What is the best way to determine possible low prices in the corn and soybean markets? *What do you see as some of the possible low prices for December corn futures? *How can a person handle the stress the lower markets?

 Ugly day in the markets  Assentation attempt  Need to focus on macros in the trade  This trade is NOT about the Friday report  Stock market trade action  Managing Risk

 Bought the Russia story on a Thursday & sold it Friday  WASDE Report breakdown  Nice to get a bullish, somewhat friendly report to deal with  Raw number looks friendly but stocks to use?  Feed number revision

 Beans turn around  CONAB  Break in the dollar  Pre-report jitters?  IS there a 2014 repeat?  Light volume trade for cattle

 Grains under pressure  China buys beans  Drop in the cattle

 Soybeans lower once again  How are the grains behaving?  Crazy cattle market

Grains under pressure Turnaround post-holiday Noncommercial traders Cattle under pressure

7/5/24  JOBS Number  How weak is the economy?  What are the FEDs next steps?  How will the dollar movement effect future export opportunities?  New weekly highs for the soft red wheat  Short covering and the trade  Buenos Aries Grain Exchange and harvest estimates  Weather maybe warmer & dryer  Cash cattle making some trade options

7/3/24  Market lacks direction with holiday  Chinese buying & bean rumors  Soy oil market why is it blowing up?  Mexico and corn  Rumors on Russia & export restrictions  Good technical action week for cattle

7/2/24  Last weeks report still weighing in  Holiday this week  Where do the funds want to take all this info?  Do we have a lot undersold?  Grain holding up in the bins  Strong feeder market

7/1/24  ’25 acres  Second half of the year what are seasonals  How low or high could we go  Cattle market struggles  Overall feed costs

6/28/24 1. How did the planted acreage report look? 2. What did the state level numbers look like for corn and soybeans? 3. What do you think we will see for changes going forward? 4. How did the quarterly stocks report look? 5. What did the state level quarterly stocks look like? 6. Now that the reports are out of the way, what do you think the market focuses on going forward. 7. What should be done with remaining old crop and also with new crop?