Odd Lots-logo

Odd Lots

Bloomberg News

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Location:

New York City, NY

Description:

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Twitter:

@Bloomberg

Language:

English


Episodes
Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

How a DOJ Economist Approaches Antitrust in America

5/23/2024
The Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission have taken an invigorated approach to antitrust under the Biden administration, targeting companies for labor issues like non-competes, in addition to looking at more traditional measures of anti-competitive behavior, like higher pricing. But how does an economist examine the impact of monopoly practices on the overall economy, or take into account new and different measures of their effects? In this episode, we speak with Ioana Marinescu, principle economist at the DOJ's Antitrust Division, about how she analyzes these thorny issues and what she's learned from specific recent cases, like Activision/Overwatch League, or Penguin Random House’s attempted acquisition of Simon & Schuster. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:45:37

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Introducing: Big Take Asia

5/21/2024
We’re taking The Big Take to Asia. Each week, Bloomberg’s Oanh Ha tells a story from the home of the world's most dynamic economies - and the markets, tycoons and businesses that drive the ever-shifting region. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:01:30

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

How to Succeed at Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds

5/20/2024
Multi-strategy hedge funds are all the rage right now. But there's also a lot of confusion about what exactly they do, and how the the so-called "pod shops" differ from more traditional hedge funds. In this episode of the podcast, we speak with Giuseppe 'Gappy' Paleologo, a long-time veteran of the space. In addition to writing books about quantitative finance, Gappy was director of risk and quantitative analysis at Citadel and head of enterprise risk at Millennium, among many other jobs. He walks us through what multi-strat traders actually do all day, what makes for a good multi-strat candidate, and how to win in the pod shop game. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:48:44

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Jeff Currie on Why Copper Is His Highest-Conviction Trade Ever

5/17/2024
Copper has long been touted as a big winner from the world's drive towards electrification. All those electric vehicles and new grids need lots of the metal to work. At the same time, since it takes years for new copper mining capacity to actually come on stream, many people expect a long-term shortage of the metal to materialize. But despite all that excitement, copper prices actually fell over the past few years. Now, copper bulls are getting another chance as the metal surges towards a new record. So why didn't the thesis play out before? And what does the mismatch between short-term prices and long-term supply actually mean for the world? In this episode, we speak to Jeff Currie, a long-time copper bull and commodities veteran who's now at Carlyle Group. We talk to him about why copper is his highest-conviction trade ever, plus the outlook for oil and big changes in petrodollars. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:41:47

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Pierre Andurand Says the World Could Run Out of Cocoa Inventories

5/16/2024
Pierre Andurand made his name trading oil and other energy-related assets, but wild swings in the price of cocoa have recently lured the founder of Andurand Capital Management into a new market. He bet on cocoa earlier this year and saw the trade pay off as the price of the beans surged to a record $12,000 a ton. Prices have since fallen back to around $7,800, but Andurand sees scope for further upside as extreme deficits in the building blocks of chocolate loom. In this episode, we talk about how he entered the cocoa market, how he formed his investment thesis, and potential interest in other soft commodities, like coffee and orange juice. We also talk about copper, where a similar story of structural shortages is now playing out in prices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:45:08

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Viktor Shvets on How the Fed Has Become a Prisoner of Its Own Making

5/13/2024
This week, we'll get fresh inflation data in the US, which will inevitably feed into the Federal Reserve's future decisions to raise, hold or lower benchmark interest rates. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is preparing to announce new tariffs aimed at curbing Chinese imports in key industries, including electric vehicles, batteries and solar cells. On this episode, we speak to Odd Lots favorite Viktor Shvets. The Macquarie strategist has a way of threading the needle between major global events and reaching back into history to provide context for our current macroeconomic moment. He describes the US central bank as a prisoner of its own policies, namely data dependency and the "dot plot." Meanwhile, China faces "massive" overcapacity problems as more and more countries put up barriers to its exports. We also talk about generational shifts and what they mean for investment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:48:55

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Lots More With Brad Setser on the Yen, a New China Shock and Excavators

5/10/2024
There's a lot going on in currency markets and global trade at the moment. The Japanese yen has been falling, even after authorities seemed to intervene to try to arrest the slide. Meanwhile, weakness in the Chinese yuan has helped boost that country's exports and is fueling talk of a new "China Shock" for the rest of the world, even as its economy continues to grapple with slower economic growth and excess capacity. In this episode of Lots More, we bring back Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to walk us through these developments, along with his new paper, "Power and Financial Interdependence." We also talk about what China's excavator exports can tell us about its economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:29:18

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation

5/9/2024
Hugh Hendry says the world is brimming with risks right now, from Chinese deflation, to the strength of the US dollar, to unrealized losses in US Treasuries held by the bank. In the new episode of the podcast, we speak with the former manager of the Eclectica hedge fund, who now writes and operates under the Acid Capitalist branding. Hendry, who now resides in St. Bart's, says that the most important story in the world, and for as long as he's been in markets, has been the rise of China, which he sees as inflating asset values all around the world. Specifically, he sees a broken model, in which the country's GDP grows rapidly, but domestic investments and household income don't keep up. He warns of a risk of a yuan devaluation, as the country seeks to maintain its export drive which, he warns would create "Mad Max" deflation. He also talks about the "terrifying" drop in the Japanese yen, and the unusual situation by which the US is one of the world's growth leaders. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:47:34

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

What a Fed President Hears When He Goes on the Road

5/6/2024
The Federal Reserve has a lot of official statistics it can look at to try and gauge the state of the overall economy. But there's also room for incorporating on-the-ground anecdotes and real-time color. When it comes to collecting this kind of information, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin might be the biggest road warrior on the FOMC. In mid-April, Odd Lots tagged alongside Barkin as he undertook one of his many trips around his district, speaking to local businesses about what they're seeing in terms of inflation, consumer demand, and the labor market. We traveled with him to North Carolina, making stops in Mount Airy, Winston-Salem and Yadkinville, to better understand what it is that a regional Fed president actually does when he's collecting info on the ground, and how it informs his thinking. It's a rare inside look at the day-to-day work of a Fed president. In this episode, you'll learn what kind of questions Barkin is asking businesses. And you'll learn about some local businesses themselves — everything from carport manufacturing to producing thermal underwear to spinning yarn. We also take a look at some of the big picture challenges facing America's smaller towns, including shrinking populations, a shortage of housing, and the scarcity of essential services like childcare. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:56:43

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Lots More on How CHIPS Act Money Got Awarded

5/3/2024
In 2022, Congress passed the CHIPS Act, which set aside tens of billions of dollars in loans and grants in order to encourage companies to build new semiconductor fabs in the United States. We're still very early in the process. It's going to be a long time before we know if the US will become a major player again in the production of advanced chips. But the process is well underway and the bulk of the awards have been officially announced, with much of the money going to Intel, Samsung, TSMC, and others. So how did the grants get allocated — and what's next? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Bloomberg News reporter Mackenzie Hawkins on the latest developments. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:31:34

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Luis von Ahn Explains How Computers and Humans Learn From Each Other

5/2/2024
Breakthroughs in generative AI have created enormous opportunities for humans to learn from computers. We can use them to explain the news, understand historical concepts, fix our coding errors, and so forth. But of course, AI also has to learn from human. The technology digests enormous amounts of written text, and often relies on human feedback to calibrate its models. Luis von Ahn has been at the forefront of these back and forth interactions for years. He is currently the CEO and co-founder of Duolingo, the language learning app, but prior to that, he was one of the original developers of CAPTCHAs, the little puzzles you solve to log into websites and prove that you're a human. And of course, in the process of proving your humanity, you're also training computers to get better at identifying red lights, cross walks, bicycles and wavy letters. On this episode, we discuss the history of his work, the future of CAPTCHAs, the success of Duolingo and how he is using today's advanced AI models in aid of language learnings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:51:22

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

The Ultra Wealthy Have Their Own Separate World of Real Estate

4/29/2024
In the past, the most expensive housing in any major city would be connected in some way to the economics of the city itself. If the general market was weak, the high end was also weak. If the general market was strong, then the high end was strong. But increasingly in cities like NYC, Aspen, Dubai, Miami, and elsewhere, the ultra high end exists in a different market, where the rich splash around money at levels which are completely disconnected from the local environment. At these levels, the ultra-wealthy are engaging in a global game of one-upmanship, where a higher price tag, perversely, can make a given property even more tantalizing. On this episode we speak with Hiten Samtani, founder of ten31 Media, which focuses on real estate, about how this market has developed. We talk through the deals, brokers, the buyers, and the general economics of this ultra-premium tier. We also discuss the rise of branded condos -- or those with the Mercedes or Porsche imprimatur -- and how they're reshaping the real estate landscape. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:42:20

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

An Ex-CIA Officer Explains How to Spot a Lie in Business

4/26/2024
When most investors think of due diligence, they think of sifting through years of financial statements and crunching numbers to better understand a company's potential. Not many people think about interrogating senior executives and employees, and asking the right questions to figure out whether they're telling the truth about the business model. In this episode, we speak with Phil 'Dick' Houston, a veteran CIA officer who's been called the human lie detector. Phil literally wrote the book on how to spot lies, and has been a long-time collaborator of entrepreneur and serial acquirer Brad Jacobs, helping him with due diligence on both senior hires and potential investments. In this episode, Phil explains his strategy for identifying deceptive behavior and how it can be applied to the corporate world. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:43:21

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Here's Who's Winning the Global Fight for AI Talent

4/25/2024
AI is all the rage right now. There are billions of dollars now flowing into the space, with large and small companies all competing to create the next big thing. But in addition to lots of money, building new AI models requires top-tier researchers. So, who's attracting the best? And what does it take to be considered top talent in AI anyway? On this episode we speak with Damien Ma, managing director at MacroPolo, the in-house think tank of the Paulson Institute. Damien helps put together MacroPolo's Global AI Talent Tracker, which monitors the flow of top-tier AI researchers around the world. We discuss who's winning the AI talent war so far, the purported talent drain in China, competition from India, and much more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:41:33

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Josh Wolfe: The ChatGPT of Robotics is Coming

4/22/2024
Over the last year or so, probably every venture capitalist has become interested in artificial intelligence. So people are still figuring out what types of business models actually work, and who will end up making money in the space. Josh Wolfe has been at it for a long time. As a co-founder and managing partner at Lux Capital, he's been involved in a number of deals in the space, and is already looking at what's next after the wave of excitement for chatbots since ChatGPT was released. On this episode, we talk to Josh about what he's excited about right now, including robotics, biotech, and maintenance. He tells us that just as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:52:02

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin On Getting Inflation Under Control

4/19/2024
At the end of 2023, there was a lot of optimism that the US economy was on that glide path to a soft landing. But at least in the first quarter of this year, inflation has come in hotter than expected. So is this just a speedbump on the way back down to 2%? Or is this a new trajectory for inflation that will make the Federal Reserve rethink its existing approach? On this bonus episode of Odd Lots, we caught up with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin in Mount Airy, North Carolina, to get his assessment of the latest data, and what it means for policy. He explains why he thinks policy is still restrictive, and why he doesn’t see evidence yet of overheating demand. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:17:47

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

What AMLO's Legacy Means For Mexico's Upcoming Election

4/19/2024
On June 2, 2024, Mexicans will go to the polls to elect a successor to current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. His chosen successor, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, is the odds-on favorite. But what is AMLO’s legacy exactly? In some sense, economic growth under his administration has been robust. On the other hand, there’s been very little progress on domestic security. He also leaves a legacy of massive spending routed through the military, whose fruits are still undetermined. On this episode, we speak with Bloomberg News reporter Andrea Navarro, who has dug deep into how AMLO has conducted economic policy, his approach to industrial and fiscal policy, and whether Mexico is now in a position to ride the ongoing wave of trade with the US and the nearshoring of international supply chains. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:42:57

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

How The American Workforce Got Hooked on Adderall

4/18/2024
Over the last few years, users of the popular ADHD drug Adderall have been frustrated by regular shortages in getting their prescriptions filled. Various regulatory and supply chain factors have contributed to the inability of producers to keep up with demand. But this raises the question: why is there so much demand in the first place? How did a significant chunk of the labor force -- from tech workers to Wall Streeters -- begin using the drug as an aid for their work and everyday lives? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Danielle Carr, an assistant professor at the Institute for Society and Genetics at UCLA, who studies the history of politics of neuroscience and psychology. We discuss the history of this medicine and related medicines, what it does for the people who take it, and how market forces opened the drug up to almost anyone. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:52:49

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

How Electric Utilities Will Handle Booming AI Datacenter Demand

4/15/2024
For years and years, utilities in the US haven't seen much growth in electricity demand. The economy is generally mature and has been able to grow even without needing much more electrical power. But all that's changing now and a big contributing factor is the boom in datacenter demand. It's particularly acute for AI datacenters, which need more power than traditional datacenters, and are growing like crazy ever since ChatGPT brought generative AI to everyone's collective consciousness. So how will utilities handle the sudden surge in load growth? On this episode, we speak with Brian Janous, co-founder and chief strategy officer at Cloverleaf Infrastructure. Brian spent 12 years at Microsoft, where he was the company's first ever energy-focused hire, so he has seen the rise of datacenter electricity consumption first hand, and how AI is kicking it up even further. He now works alongside utilities to figure out how they'll meet this growing demand. We talk about how there's likely to be more gas plants being built, how datacenters and utilities can get more energy out of existing infrastructure, the politics of AI datacenters, and what this all means for the net-zero commitments of major tech companies. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:54:05

Ask host to enable sharing for playback control

Introducing Money Stuff: The Podcast

4/13/2024
The audio companion to Bloomberg Opinion’s beloved Money Stuff column hosted by its author Matt Levine, “whose deadpan style mixes technical elucidation and wit” (NY Times). Once a week, Matt and his friend, Bloomberg News reporter and TV host, Katie Greifeld talk about Wall Street, finance and…other stuff. New episodes every Friday. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Duration:00:02:16