Tune In Switched On

This year has been a mixed bag for electric vehicles. After EV sales hit new highs in 2023, some automakers have now revised down their near-term targets, citing falling demand. While this may have generated headlines, the overall market offers a more nuanced image, with different segments outperforming others, and growth in developing economies starting to pick up pace. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Electric Vehicles, Aleksandra O’Donovan, and Head of Advanced Transport and Energy Storage, Colin McKerracher, to talk about findings from this year’s Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook. Together they discuss the slowdown in EV sales seen in some regions, the collapse in Chinese battery prices and its effect on the wider market, and the rise of electric commercial vehicles.

Driven by supportive policies and a maturing project pipeline, clean hydrogen supply is set to increase 30-fold by 2030. Demand will be aided in part by Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and other government policies, but fewer than a third of the 1,600 hydrogen projects that have been announced so far actually materialize in our analysis, and they are often subject to delays. On today’s show, Dana and hydrogen analyst Adithya Bhashyam discuss findings from our recent hydrogen outlooks. Together, they cover the global picture for clean hydrogen production, including how the US is leading the way on gas-fueled blue H2 and the uncertainty around the scale of future Chinese green hydrogen production capacity. They delve into the need for government support for offtake agreements, and the large gap between clean hydrogen supply and demand.

Each year, BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook develops and evaluates scenarios for the transition to a low-carbon economy. Delving into electricity, industry, buildings and transport, this flagship report outlines sector and country transition scenarios out to 2050. On today’s show, Dana is joined by co-host Tom Rowlands-Rees, BNEF’s head of research for North America, and guest David Hostert, Head of Economics and Modeling at BNEF and lead author of the New Energy Outlook. They discuss nine technological pillars that underpin the energy transition, and consider which of these are gaining traction or stalling. They also debate the value scenario exercises bring to those working in climate and energy when charting the path to a net-zero future.

The persistent oversupply of solar modules has pushed prices to record lows and threatened the competitiveness of manufacturing outside of Asia. Against this backdrop, a group of US companies has petitioned the Biden administration for further tariffs to be applied. While China has historically been the target of the US government, the latest levies are focused on Southeast Asian countries where Chinese manufacturers have set up shop: Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia. On today’s show, Dana is joined by co-host Tom Rowlands-Rees, and Pol Lezcano from our solar team. Together they discuss whether these tariffs could do more harm than good, given the push for net zero and the significantly cheaper modules that are already available. They also unpack the range and depth of the proposed duties, and how likely they are to support new and existing solar manufacturing in the US.

The European Union could be leaning towards a more protectionist stance when it comes to clean industry manufacturing, with policies such as import tariffs and domestic content targets under consideration. Would such protectionist measures help the domestic clean energy and electric vehicle sectors flourish? Today’s show brings you a panel from the BloombergNEF Summit Munich, in which Herbert Diess, Chairman of Infineon and The Mobility House; Jacek Truszczynski, Deputy Head of Unit - Net Zero Industries, Sustainable and Circular Products at the European Commission; Yann Vincent, CEO of Automotive Cells Company; and Håkon Volldal, CEO of Nel Hydrogen were led in conversation by Jon Moore, CEO of BNEF. They debated whether the European Union should follow the US in applying tariffs to Chinese imports, the inflationary risks that could arise should trade barriers go up, and the risks and potential benefits of allowing foreign markets to build clean-tech manufacturing plants in Europe. This episode of Switched On was recorded live at the BNEF Summit Munich.

The global nuclear industry has been plagued with retirements for over a decade. However, after delegates at the COP28 summit last year voiced aspirations to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, the industry could be poised for growth. The usual regulatory, environmental and economic hurdles remain, but small modular reactors have the potential to ameliorate several of these obstacles if they can get off the ground. Meanwhile, exuberance for nuclear energy has been dampened by fluctuations in the price of enriched uranium. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s lead nuclear analyst, Chris Gadomski. He shares insights from the recent report Nuclear Market Outlook 1H 2024: Big Dreams Despite Hurdles, and provides perspective on the feasibility of a comeback story for the nuclear industry.

As already-strained power grids grapple with rapidly increasing demand, Europe is pioneering an innovative and powerful new tool to help system operators manage grid constraints. These local flexibility markets help balance electricity supply and demand by enabling distributed energy resources, such as electric vehicles or storage operators, to solve grid bottlenecks. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Grids and Utilities, Sanjeet Sanghera, along with Felicia Aminoff, lead author of the recent BNEF report, Europe’s Local Flexibility Markets: Aiding a Strained Grid. Together they discuss the mechanisms that can be used to create a flexibility market, the potential scale of future markets and the technology required to grow them, and the existing regulatory models that underpin flexibility in an energy system.

Rooftop solar is celebrating a runaway success in Australia, which has positioned itself to become a renewable energy superpower. From a target of doubling its renewable energy capacity by 2030 to $1.2 billion in the federal budget dedicated to the clean energy sector, the country has big plans for its energy transition.Yet the country still has a ways to travel before reaching its goals, with substantial legacy coal-fired power stations still contributing to the energy mix. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Leonard Quong, BloombergNEF’s Head of Australia Research. Together they discuss the state of the energy transition in Australia, including how large volumes of rooftop solar are leading to negative power prices, the country’s ambitions to become a leader in green hydrogen, and how its exports of coal, liquefied natural gas and other commodities continue to shape the region.

Autonomous vehicles might be the cars of the future, but following a flurry of venture capital and private equity funding a decade ago, investment in this space has since tapped the brakes. Last year saw VC/PE fundraising fail to reach $4 billion for the first time since 2017. While green shoots have come in the form of Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi launch, in such a capital-intensive industry, which levels of autonomy are the rest of the field still betting on? On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Intelligent Mobility, Andrew Grant. Together they discuss the recent drop in investment, advances in self-driving vehicle development, and Tesla’s continued resistance to following its peers in adopting laser-based sensor technology known as lidar.

The first quarter of 2024 has seen a flurry of sustainable finance policy activity and a wave of mandatory reporting rules. Yet on the flip side, anti-ESG policies are gaining traction in the US. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Maia Godemer, senior associate for green and sustainable finance at BloombergNEF, to discuss this rapidly changing environment. Together, they consider BNEF’s new Sustainable Finance Policy Quarterly, touching on the new EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and how it differs from the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB).

As part of the Inflation Reduction Act, draft guidance for the US hydrogen production tax credit was introduced in December 2023, with the aim of promoting decarbonization in hard-to-abate sectors and enhancing energy security in the country. While some applauded the draft guidance for preventing greenwashing and driving real decarbonization, others view these requirements as excessive, and fear they could potentially discourage investment in green hydrogen production. On today’s show, BNEF’s head of hydrogen research, Martin Tengler, hosts a conversation on hydrogen production in the US, with panelists Kathleen Barron, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer at Constellation; Claire Behar, Chief Commercial Officer at Hy Stor Energy; Elena Scaltritti, Chief Commercial Officer at Topsoe; and Andy Vesey, President and Chief Executive Officer at Fortescue North America. They discuss whether the tax credit rules are helping or hurting green hydrogen production in the US, the lack of demand incentives compared with the EU, and the role that nuclear could play in the hydrogen sector’s future. Today’s episode was recorded live at the BNEF Summit New York.

Sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, has the potential to help decarbonize aviation and is the most scalable technology for this hard-to-abate sector in the near term. With offtake agreements for SAF surging over the past two years, the nascent industry has been showing promise. However, hurdles remain due to scarcity of supply, resource competition from renewable diesel, and a lack of technological diversification. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Daisy Robinson and Rose Oates, two members of BloombergNEF’s renewable fuels team. Together they discuss the regional policies that are driving the uptake of cleaner jet fuels, the different feedstocks used to produce SAF, and the greenium that SAF faces when compared with traditional fuels.

China is churning out clean energy technology at a breakneck pace, driving down prices on everything from solar panels to lithium ion batteries. With supply far exceeding demand, the timing couldn’t be worse for the many countries that are looking to onshore clean-tech equipment manufacturing. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Trade and Supply Chains, Antoine Vagneur-Jones. They discuss the impetus behind the Chinese government’s drive to dominate the clean-tech export sector, the sheer scale of the global manufacturing overcapacity and whether it’s already sufficient to meet net-zero goals, and the US reaction to Chinese companies potentially offshoring production to countries like Mexico.

Voluntary carbon markets are coming off a tumultuous year, with constant public scrutiny and high-profile scandals undermining investor confidence. Despite the turmoil, the market has grown to a record size, as corporations look to carbon offsets to reach their net zero goals. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Layla Khanfar, BNEF corporate sustainability and carbon offsets analyst, alongside Kyle Harrison, BNEF’s head of sustainability research for the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. They discuss BNEF’s long-term carbon-market scenarios, the different types of offsets that are available for purchase, and how private companies are stepping in to help fill the regulatory void.

Seaborne freight is the lifeblood of the global economy. It’s also a heavy polluter. Now that shipping companies, retailers and governments are all looking to decarbonize the supply chain, what is the outlook for clean shipping fuels? In a broad field of competing options including ammonia, methane and LNG, which is the most viable? On today’s show, Dana is joined by Mohith Velamala, a senior associate on BloombergNEF’s oil team. Together they discuss the maritime sector’s existing decarbonization targets and whether these can realistically be met, the stringent EU policies that are having a global impact, and the long-term outlook for fleet growth and its potential carbon footprint.

As the world races to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, countries are ramping up their efforts across the supply chain, from mining raw materials to fostering consumer demand. For the fourth year, BloombergNEF has ranked the potential of 30 markets to build a secure, reliable and sustainable lithium-ion battery supply chain, with Canada leapfrogging China to clinch the top spot this time around. On today’s show, Dana is joined by the head of BNEF’s metals and mining team, Kwasi Ampofo, and metals and mining analyst Ellie Gomes-Callus. Together they discuss the ranking, including which countries are performing best across the five categories assessed, and also unpack the recent volatility in the lithium market and the impact that Indonesian policy has had on nickel prices.

The aviation industry’s pathway to net zero is far from certain. Operational improvements and technologies such as sustainable aviation fuel and zero-emission aircraft could offer substantial emissions reductions, but questions remain around timing, scalability and customers’ willingness to pay. So what strategies can airlines apply to reduce their carbon footprint and meet their net-zero commitments? On today’s show, Jade Patterson, a BloombergNEF senior associate in sustainable fuels, interviews United Airlines’ Chief Sustainability Officer, Lauren Riley. Together they discuss United’s strategy for achieving its climate goals, the governmental policies that could encourage carriers to adopt greener practices, and the venture fund that United has founded to help clean up aviation writ large. More information regarding BNEF’s Regional Forums and BNEF’s Flagship Summits can be found by clicking on the hyperlinks above.

With plastic production set to double by 2050, immediate action is needed to address plastic waste pollution and the inefficiencies of existing recycling systems. Chemical recycling could help process lower-grade feedstocks, significantly upping the amount of plastic that can be given a second life, but is the sector ready to do so? On today’s show, Dana is joined by Kirti Vasta, a senior associate from BloombergNEF’s sustainable materials team. Together they discuss the different forms chemical recycling can take, what’s driving investment in the space, and the unexpected places that recycled plastics can go.

As electric vehicle sales skyrocket, so too will the need for EV batteries and the metals that make them work. That’s where recycling comes in. By 2035, some 3.7 million metric tons of batteries could be nearing the end of their lives. Pull them apart to repurpose their innards, and you could have 10-18% of the key materials needed for battery manufacturing. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF energy storage analyst Andy Leach. Together they discuss why production scrap from the manufacturing process is the most important feedstock for near-term recycling, how EV ownership rates across different regions will impact the longer-term availability of key metals, and the policies and incentives that are designed to encourage and enforce battery recycling.

The Chinese government is rolling out one of the world’s most ambitious clean energy plans, targeting 1,200 gigawatts of installed renewable capacity by 2030. Part of their strategy involves building megabases, huge clean-energy developments that will generate more than one-third of the targeted total. Yet bringing a multi-gigawatt megabase to fruition, and doing it on such a tight time scale, is no minor feat. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF analysts Tianyi Zhao and Xiangyu Chen. Together they discuss the policies that are driving megabase rollout, how the enormous demand for wind and solar equipment is impacting prices, and the new ultra-high voltage grids that will carry the power generated from remote megabases to major cities.