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DHUnplugged #691: Lying Flat

2/20/2024
Japan makes surprise crypto move. AI dating coaches are coming - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely - AI Buying AI stuff - Cure for Frostbite? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AI dating coaches are coming - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely - AI Buying AI stuff - Cure for Frostbite? - AMAZING AMAZON Market Update - Japan - really pumping the risk assets - China government making $$ moves - China: Latest Problem: Lying Flat - Whoops - What is an extra ZERO anyway? Follow Up---- - USA CPI came out HOT! - January PPI increased by 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), with the previous figure revised to -0.1% from -0.2%. Meanwhile, January Core PPI rose by 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), and the prior number was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%. - The significant message from the report aligns with the conclusion drawn from the unexpectedly high January CPI report: whether the market opts to overlook this data due to seasonal adjustments, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to dismiss it. - The Fed is likely to perceive it as a reason to maintain a patient approach in terms of potential rate cuts. Market Hysteria - The Russell 2000, sank 4% on Tuesday, but ultimately settled 1.1% higher on the week. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 declined 0.4% this week, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 jumped 0.7%. - The Russell was DOWN 4% on Tuesday after the hotter than expected CPI report. - In addition to the hot CPI reading, market participants also digested a below-consensus Retail Sales report for January, an unexpected drop in jobless claims to 212,000, and a hotter-than-expected PPI report for January. -The 2-yr note yield settled 15 basis points higher this week to 4.65% in response to this week's data and the 10-yr note yield rose 11 basis points this week to 4.30%. (Briefing.com) Japan Crypto News - Japan inched closer to allowing venture capital firms and other investment funds to hold digital assets directly, after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration agreed to submit a revised bill to implement the change. - His cabinet approved the text of a bill on Feb. 16 that seeks to partially amend the country’s industrial competitiveness enhancement act, according to a statement published on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s website. The bill states that “measures will be taken to add cryptoassets to the list of assets that can be acquired and held by investment limited partnerships,” referring to a vehicle used by venture capital firms to secure capital for investments. China - China’s southern province of Hainan moved to cut down-payment ratio for first-time homebuyers, the latest region in the country to ease mortgage policies to boost slumping home sales. - Minimum down payment for first homes was cut to 20% from 25%, according to a Monday report by Hainan Daily. The ratio for second homes remains unchanged at 30%, the outlet reported, citing a government notice without saying when the measure would go into effect. More China - China's market opened after the long Lunar New Year break with a thud. - China looks to be still buying directly into markets to prop up - Reports about pre-pandemic level spending on goods and travel, especially during the Lunar New Year did not lift the mood much China's Newest Concern: Lie Flat - "lie flat", a Chinese term used to describe people who work just enough to afford to spend their time on what they enjoy. ---- Not like Japan Inc of the 1980's - Although there is no data on how many young Chinese are opting out of corporate jobs that they traditionally would have taken, the youth jobless rate rose to a record high of 21.

Duration:00:58:32

DHUnplugged #690: To The Moon

2/13/2024
SUPERBOWL Mania. Bitcoin Fever is back HUGE week for economic reports Altman looking for $ Winner for SAVE CTP announced PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - SUPERBOWL Mania - Bitcoin Fever is back - HUGE week for economic reports - Altman looking for $ - Winner for SAVE CTP Market Update - 3-Day Rule (Buy after plunge) - Made up Nonsense - Get out your 5,000 Hats! - Disney Earnings - Good Stuff - ARM Blowout - CPI Report Meltdown S&P 500 Breaks 5,000! - All time high - The S&P 500 continues to hit fresh milestones with a first-ever break above the 5,000 level, its valuation is reaching new heights as well. - PE - forward price-to-earnings ratio -- a commonly used metric to value stocks -- this week rose to 20.4 times, a level last reached in February 2022, according to LSEG Datastream. - That puts it far above the index’s historic average of 15.7. - Expectations are for 9.7% earnings growth for 2024 - "The good news is that valuations, while stretched ... are nowhere near the 28x peak at the Y2K Bubble Top," Emanuel said. ???? Follow Up---- - CPI came out HOT! - YoY 3.1% for CPU and 3.9% for Core - The food index was up 0.4% month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year. - The energy index was down 0.9% month-over-month and down 4.6% year-over-year. - The used cars and trucks index decreased 3.4% month-over-month and was down 3.5% year-over-year. - The shelter index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 6.0% year-over-year. - The all items index less shelter was up 1.5% year-over-year. ----- Markets hit after reports - gained a bit back toward end of the session - but overbought and hot CPI don't mix --- Small Caps down 4%, NAZ down 2% S&P down 1.4% What Does it Mean? - Fed funds futures push any cut until June - 4 cuts are expectations for 2024 (down 7 at the start of the year) Economics this week Economics NVDA - Up, Up, UP - Goldman Target = $800 - NVIDIA surpassed Amazon (AMZN) in market value for a brief period on Monday More NVDA - Company is building a new business unit focused on designing bespoke chips for cloud computing firms and others, including advanced artificial intelligence (AI) processors, nine sources familiar with its plans told Reuters. - The dominant global designer and supplier of AI chips aims to capture a portion of an exploding market for custom AI chips and shield itself from the growing number of companies pursuing alternatives to its products. Altman (ChatGPT) - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is seeking trillions of dollars in investments to overhaul the global semiconductor industry - Altman has long talked of the supply and demand problem with AI chips - He's considering a project that would increase global chip-building capacity, - Altman could need to raise between $5 trillion and $7 trillion for the endeavor - Reportedly in talks with different investors, including the government of the United Arab Emirates. Waymo Cars Attacked - On Saturday night, a crowd surrounded a white sport utility vehicle that was moving along a street in the city's Chinatown district (San Fran) - A person jumped onto the hood of the Waymo vehicle and broke its windshield. Another person also jumped on the hood 30 seconds later as some in the crowd clapped in approval - Fireworks thrown in car and set on fire. - On previous occasions in San Francisco and Phoenix, Arizona, groups have disrupted the operations of self-driving vehicles, blocking their path, trying to enter the vehicles and jumping on their hoods Amazon - Bezos unloading shares - $2 billion last week - Plans to sell 50 million shares over the next year or so Israel - Downgraded by Moody's

Duration:01:00:35

DHUnplugged #689: AI Market Euphoria

2/6/2024
Big Week - AND HOW! Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%. Shakeup at Morgan Stanley Banking Sector Fears (NYCB) The latest Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Big Week - AND HOW! - Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small (Regional Bank woes) --- AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%. - Shakeup at Morgan Stanley - Banking Sector Fears (NYCB) - AI induced euphoria - is that a thing? Market intoxicated on it. Market Update - Powell was Hawkish - Markets Didn't Care (past Wednesday) - HUGE Employment Surprise - Market Didn't Care (after 10 minutes) - META/Facebook Earning - Yes Markets cared - all day Friday - Undercurrent of something happening (Region Bank breakdown - NYCB) - China comes out strong with market supportive measures - market rallies 5% Employment Report - Much hotter than anticipated - Treasury Yields and the USD spiked - Unemployment rate at 3.7% (expected to tick up to 3.8% - Briefing.com: This report is not likely to persuade the FOMC to cut rates as soon, or as much, as the market had hoped. As a result, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday), according to the CME FedWatch Tool. - markets were a bit flushed on the initial report but tossed it aside and preferred to focus on META earnings Rate Cut Odd for MARCH - As a result of the Fed meeting and employment report, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday), SO REACHING - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that while the January job report was impressive on the surface, underlying details were not as strong. - “The headline number was almost breathtaking,” Goolsbee said in an interview on the “PBS NewsHour” program. - “If you peel back the onion a little bit, it’s not as strong as that headline number advertises … but it’s still very strong,” he said. - In particular, he noted that hours worked fell 0.2% last month despite the jump in net new jobs. Amazon - Blowout - Earnings per share: $1.00 vs. 80 cents expected by LSEG - Revenue: $170 billion vs. $166.2 billion expected - Amazon Web Services: $24.2 billion vs. $24.2 billion, according to StreetAccount - Advertising: $14.7 billion vs. $14.2 billion, according to StreetAccount - Amazon said first-quarter sales will be between $138 billion and $143.5 billion, representing growth of 8% to 13%. Analysts were expecting revenue of $142.1 billion, according to analysts. META - BLOW-OOOUUUUTTTT - Meta Platforms beats by $0.51, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; - FY24 total expense guidance unchanged at $94-$99 bln, - CapEx guidance of $30-$37 bln, up $2.0 bln at high end; - They stopped spending on META. - Initiates quarterly dividend of $0.50/share, also announces $50 bln increase to share repurchase program. - Stock up 21% Apple Earnings - headline: Apple beats by $0.08, beats on revs; iPhones and services beat; China revenue declines 13.1% - Magic words: CEO Tim Cook thinks there is a huge opportunity to for Apple on AI, but he does not want to get ahead of things. - Apple reports Q1 iPhone revenue of $69.

Duration:01:02:36

DHUnplugged #688: Big BIG Week

1/30/2024
HUGE Earnings - Most impactful week of quarter. China continues to try to save markets Push Back? Powell Meets Markets Wednesday. PCE - FED FAV - The Latest. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Jury Duty? - Big Week for ECO - Jobs Report Friday - Penmanship - making a comeback? - Is this a Capitulation Moment - China? -- War Brewing - Dragging US into Mid-East Conflict? Market Update - HUGE Earnings - Most impactful week of quarter - China continues to try to save markets - Push Back? Powell Meets Markets Wednesday - PCE - FED FAV - The Latest PODCAST DEAL - Sirius XM Holdings Inc. has acquired certain exclusive rights to SmartLess, the hit podcast hosted by actors Will Arnett, Jason Bateman and Sean Hayes, as part of a larger deal between the satellite radio company and SmartLess Media. - The three-year accord is worth more than $100 million, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified. SUPER- Bowl - Tickets to attend the Super Bowl in Las Vegas — a rematch between the 2020 contenders — are the most expensive ever for the event, going for an average $9,815 each so far, according to reseller TickPick. - The price is 70% more than last year’s game, which was held in Arizona. The previous record of $7,046 was set in 2021 in Tampa, Florida, when the game was played at sharply reduced capacity Rate Hike Probabilities - First move for markets from Oct '23 was the HOPE and LOVE of Fed Rate Cuts to come - As soon as March - (The we got the AI 'rager' that helped support Bull markets) - - NOW, Rate CUT hopes fading - markets ignoring facts --- Rate Cut Chart Odds - Fading Rate Cut Odds Reporting this week: - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft --- Huge components for NAZ100 and S&P500 Microsoft - Microsoft was expected to report a 15.8% jump in quarterly revenue, its best growth in nearly two years, as rising adoption of its products infused with generative AI fuels demand for its cloud services. -- ACTUAL: ---- Microsoft's Q2 revenue was $62.02 billion, a 16% increase, surpassing the estimate of $61.14 billion. ----- Earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $2.93, beating the consensus by $0.16. -- Stock even A/H Google/Alphabet - GOOGL company achieved a YoY revenue increase of 13.5%, reaching $86.31 billion, surpassing expectations. - Google Advertising reported $65.52 billion in revenue, showing an 11.0% YoY growth but falling short of expecations. -- Stock Down 4% AH More Earnings - TSLA - Horrible! - Earnings per share: 71 cents, adjusted vs. 74 cents expected. - Revenue: $25.17 billion vs. $25.6 billion expected. - Operating margin for the quarter came in at 8.2%, down from the year-ago quarter's figure of 16% - Tesla said in its investor presentation that vehicle volume growth in 2024 "may be notably lower" than last year's growth rate as the company works toward launching its "next-generation vehicle" in Texas. - Stock down 14% on the news ---- Stock market cap still down 40% since purchase of Twitter in 2022 AMD - - Met expectations but guided DOWN - So much for the big rise based on NOTHING! - Stocks DOWN 10% Tech Layoffs - Silicon Valley’s tech companies are slashing headcount at a rapid pace. - Since the start of January, some 23,670 workers have been laid off from 85 tech companies, according to the website Layoffs.fyi. - Some are laying off staff in parts of the business to invest more heavily in developing AI products. China - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has said that investors will no longer be able to lend out shares for trading purpo...

Duration:00:59:53

DHUnplugged #687: No Stopping Now

1/23/2024
Those margins - not a pretty look. Trouble in Airlines Space while the love for Apple remains. More Stimulus but hidden in the details. Announcing a new Closest to The Pin. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Trouble in Airlines Space - Apple Love Remains - More Stimulus - Hidden in the Details - BULL TAKE OFF - No Stopping Us Now - Right? (Overconfidence?) Market Update - Bitcoin - Sub $40k on Monday - Why? - Chatter IPO on the way (again) - New Highs for markets - Pulled by a few stocks - And on The Margin - A Margin Crunch - Rates moving up - VIX moving down DONATIONS - HEY it is 2024! NEW HIGHS - A New Bull Market has just been declared. Out of the BEAR as we eclipse the previous high set in 2022. Airlines - JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines on Friday said they are appealing a federal judge's ruling issued earlier this week that blocks the two carriers' planned merger on antitrust grounds. - JetBlue had planned to buy Spirit for $3.8 billion in a deal struck in the summer of 2022. A federal judge on Tuesday, however, barred that combination, saying it would eliminate the budget carrier and mean higher prices for cost-conscious consumers. - Spirit drop 62% last week - trying to recover a bit - BUT, if Sprint fails - doesn't that mean that the elimination of a budget carrier could mean higher prices for cost conscious consumers? ---- They will appeal, give concessions and win. ---- Spirit up 90% since low last week Bitcoin Sinking - Bitcoin sub $40,000 on Monday as the sell-off continues - Blaming it on selling of the GrayScale and beig bought in NEW Sppot ETFs - Thought question: If Selling Apple in Fidelity and Buying in Schwab - does that impact share price? Banks Suing The Fed? - Big banks have hired one of the country’s top trial lawyers and are preparing to sue the Federal Reserve — a nearly unthinkable challenge — if sweeping new industry regulations aren’t watered down. - Eugene Scalia, the son of the former Supreme Court justice and a well-known conservative litigator, is quietly drawing up a lawsuit seeking to block the proposed rules on behalf of the Bank Policy Institute, a trade group that represents JPMorgan, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and others, people familiar with the matter said. - It would be the first time in recent memory that the industry has sued the Fed, and a departure from standard halls-of-power persuasion efforts that try to avoid antagonizing its chief regulator. More Airlines - The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recommended that airlines operating Boeing 737-900ER jets inspect door plugs to ensure that they are properly secured after some operators reported unspecified issues with bolts upon inspections. - Regulators have stepped up scrutiny on Boeing after a Jan. 5 mid-air panel blowout on an eight-week-old Alaska Airlines MAX 9 jet that left a gaping hole in the aircraft. Boeing has sought to contain the damage, appointing an independent advisor to examine quality control in its manufacturing processes while numerous planes remain grounded. - In its new "Safety Alert for Operators," the FAA said that some airlines had conducted additional inspections on the 737-900ER mid-exit door plugs and had noted "findings with bolts during the maintenance inspections." Apple - - Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab ended Samsung Electronics' 12-year run as the largest seller of smartphones in the world, after commanding a 20% market share in 2023, according to a report from International Data Corp. - Samsung ended the year with a 19.4% share, followed by China's Xiaomi, Oppo and Transsion,

Duration:01:01:12

DHUnplugged #686: Picking on The Rich

1/16/2024
- BIG News - Apple loses to.... - World Economic Forum Davos Happening - Picking on Rich Peeps AGAIN - let them eat stimulus! - Best of CES? - EVs getting some shade thrown - Bitcoin ETF approved PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - BIG News - Apple Loses to.... - World Economic Forum Davos Happening - Picking on Rich Peeps again - Best of CES? - EVs getting some shade thrown - Bitcoin ETF approved Market Update - Natural Gas price on the move - huge jump - 3 downgrades for Apple last week - Bank earnings - mixed, but could say disappoint - Another Stop-gap bill to AVERT a government shutdown Can You Believe this? - Microsoft ended Friday's U.S. trading session as the most valuable publicly traded company, surpassing Apple after briefly topping the iPhone maker during intraday trading on Thursday. - Shares of Microsoft climbed more than 3% for the week, bringing the company's market cap to $2.89 trillion, while Apple's stock dropped by over 3%, lowering its valuation to $2.87 trillion. More Apple - Apple said on Thursday that former Vice President Al Gore will retire from the company's board next month after serving as a director since 2003. - Other: 3 Downgrades last week! (Stock still up 2.5% for the week although down 3.5% for the year 2024 More Wealth News - Just in time for Davos - pick on the rich - LET THEM EAT STIMULUS! - The world's five richest men have more than doubled their vast wealth since 2020, according to an Oxfam report, as the charity calls for curbs on "corporate power." - The report found that the combined fortune of the world's wealthiest people — Tesla CEO Elon Musk, LVMH boss Bernard Arnault and family, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, and veteran investor Warren Buffett — has jumped from $405 billion in March 2020 to $869 billion in November 2023. - Seven of the world's ten biggest companies have a billionaire as their CEO or main shareholder, the report found. Meanwhile, the world's richest 1% of people own 43% of global financial assets, according to the research, such as publicly listed instruments like stocks and bonds, along with stakes in privately-held businesses. - "If current trends continue, the world will have its first trillionaire within a decade but poverty won't be eradicated for another 229 years," Oxfam said. Even MORE Davos - The global economy faces a year of subdued growth prospects and uncertainty stemming from geopolitical strife, tight financing conditions and the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, a survey of top economists released on Monday found. - Conducted each year ahead of the World Economic Forum's (WEF) annual meeting in the Swiss resort of Davos, the survey of 60-plus chief economists drawn globally from the private and public sectors attempts to sketch priorities for policymakers and business leaders. (meaningless) - Some 56% of those surveyed expect overall global economic conditions to weaken this year, with a high degree of regional divergence. While majorities saw moderate or stronger growth in China and the United States, there was broad consensus that Europe would muster only weak or very weak growth. - The outlook for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific was more positive, with very high majorities expecting at least moderate growth in 2024. - 70% see financial conditions loosening (rate cuts and stimulus) as inflation slows Speaking of Rate Cuts (NOT) - The European Central Bank may defy market expectations and hold off on starting interest rate cuts during the whole of 2024, the institution's Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said Monday.

Duration:01:03:50

DHUnplugged #685: Loose Nuts

1/9/2024
Announcing the Winner of the CTP Cup 2024! SECURE Act Benefits for 529 Plans China - turn around in gaming rule discussion Boeing Under Pressure - Loose Nuts? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - And we are back - Happy New year - Welcome to 2024 - Announcing the Winner of the CTP Cup 2024! - SECURE Act Benefits for 529 Plans - China - turn around in gaming rule discussion - Boeing Under Pressure - Loose Nuts? Market Update - Worst start to the year since ... 2015 (Whatever that means) - Market continues to have little muscle memory (Still down for the YTD) - CES getting those AI juices flowing again - BITCOIN ETF - News OUT! WELL- HACKED - Changed - WOW!!! ** Start of year 2024 - Looking for you to write dome reviews on Spotify , Apple Podcasts, Amazon Podcasts - Wherever - spread the word people! Start with this!!!!!!! -Bitcoin on the move - 13 companies filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF - Rumors that some decision will be made early this week - Bitcoin tops $47,000 on the news - May be sell the news moment.. ---- 4:15PM TODAY - UPDATE: Today the SEC grants approval for #Bitcoin ETFs for listing on all registered national securities exchanges. The approved Bitcoin ETFs will be subject to ongoing surveillance and compliance measures to ensure continued investor protection. (SEC Titter) --- 4:27PM Bitcoin down - explained as sell the news BUT- Gary Gensler private account: @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products. ---- SO, was this a not approved or a not approved YET???? Podcasts Rule - Killing the Competition (or??) - Radio giant Audacy has filed for bankruptcy protection amid a slump in advertising revenue. - The Philadelphia-based company, which oversees major podcast and radio operations and has acquired CBS Radio, said it has filed a Chapter 11 petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas after a restructuring agreement with a majority of its debtholders. - The agreement will see the company cut roughly 80% of its nearly $2 billion in debt. No Ceiling - The U.S. federal government's total public debt has reached $34 trillion for the first time, the U.S. Treasury Department reported last week. - Each party is blaming the other - Biden plans to reduce U.S. deficits by $2.5 trillion over 10 years by increasing taxes on large corporations and wealthy Americans and cutting spending on pharmaceuticals and tax breaks for oil companies. - Trump wants the tax cuts to be permanent. Bad Start - Traders hoping that a pan-markets year-end rally would pick up where it left off got the opposite on 2024’s first trading day, a session that featured one of the worst-ever concerted drops in stocks and bonds to start a year.| - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) each fell 0.6% Tuesday, the first time they’ve both slumped so much to start the year since the bond gauge began trading in 2002. --- First week was not plesant for most areas of the market - Looks like people were holding on to avoid paying taxes in 2023 (April 2024) ----- Then dumped Starbucks - Starbucks app: Coffee giant accused of rigging payments to the tune of nearly $900 million over 5 years - This is the probelm with gift cards and these plans - so much is forgotten about - “Starbucks rigs its payment platform so consumers are encouraged to leave unspent money on their cards and apps,” said Chris Carter, campaign manager for the group in a statement.

Duration:01:01:53

DHUnplugged #684: Best of 2023 (1)

1/2/2024
All sorts of good stuff in this episode. From M&A to the quick banking crisis of 2023. Some good laughs and fun throughout the year. Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together! DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Follow Ryan on Twitter

Duration:00:57:36

DHUnplugged #683: Grab Bag of Phrases

12/26/2023
Apple watch ban - stock unaffected. A surprise with housing prices. A grab-bag bull phrase being dusted off. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Slow volume - boring market (you know what they say) - China is testing some market moving ideas - New Year Coming - markets Closed Monday - Another GRAB-BAG Phase - Dusted off.... Market Update - The real Santa Claus rally - the final days - House prices - what? - Boosting Buybacks - One Company - China wrecks markets - for a day Home Price Index - October S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4.9% vs 5.0% consensus - Prior reading was +3.9% Grab-Bag - Bull Phrase - Cash on The Sidelines - The stock market is set to see a significant boost next year, thanks to a record $6 trillion and a growing cash pile in money market funds - according to FundStrat -- (UBERBULL Shop) - - Fundstat's logic: If the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates next year, this would hold more true as the risk-free interest rate on money market funds will also fall. This would make holding cash in money market funds less appealing as compared to putting it in the stock market. China - Gamming - Latest: -- China approved 105 domestic games on Monday, the latest indication that Beijing is softening its stance after its move to tighten industry restrictions led to a $80 billion rout last week. --- The titles included those operated by Tencent Holdings Ltd. and NetEase Inc., China’s two leading game publishers that have been pummeled by Beijing’s new rules. Monday’s approvals show the Chinese authorities support the development of online gaming, an industry association said in a post on WeChat republished by the official Xinhua news agency. - What happened a few days earlier - - On Friday, Chinese officials announced new draft rules aimed at limiting how much gamers could spend and restricting rewards that encourage them to spend more time online. - The announcement was a surprise and ended up spooking investors and sending markets into a tailspin. - Games giant Tencent saw its share price drop as much as 16% while the stock of its rival NetEase tumbled a record 28%. Shares of the social-media service Bilibili, which is popular with gamers, tanked 14%. Consumer Sentiment! - December Consumer Confidence 110.7 vs. 104.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 101.0 from 102.0 - Look at this chart and look at a chart of equity markets - pretty much identical. Wealth Effect is real and will play a significant role in how inflation/disinflation/deflation plays out. Spending Report - Mastercard Spending Pulse reports sales increased 3.1% YoY during the holiday season (Nov 1 trhu Dec 24); NRF predicted spending would increase 3-4% in 2023 - Restaurants (+7.8%), Grocery (+2.1%), and Apparel (+2.4%) had the best performance. - Jewelry (-2.0%) and Electronics (-0.4%) were laggards. China Car Announcement - Nio launched the ET9 EV - The company also confirmed the launch of a low-priced brand called Alps. - Nio will focus on the European market in 2024. - High end is supposedly in competion with the Porche Panarama and the Maybach - The ET9 executive sedan, positioned in the same class as Mercedes Benz’s Maybach and Porsche’s Panamera series, is expected to start delivery in the first quarter of 2025 at an estimated price of 800,000 yuan (S$152,355), Apple Stops Selling Watch - Stock barley budges - Apple on Tuesday appealed a decision to ban imports of its watches based on a complaint from medical monitoring technology company Masimo, after President Joe Biden's administration declined to veto a government tribunal.

Duration:00:47:16

DHUnplugged #682: All Aboard!

12/19/2023
The train is leaving the station - get on or get run over. Inflation is turning and now there is what? Fed rally - just in time for Christmas. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024 - More layoffs - End pf year - bullish sentiment and candy cane dreams - AMAZING - NOW Deflation is starting to bubble up - Fed-Ex Earnings... Market Update - Data matters - but only bull case - Yields - next stop? What is it saying about the future economy? - Adobe M&A stopage - Homebuilders - hitting new highs - Hacking - another hit - Supply Chain Redux? Fed Rally - Then Chill - This is getting out of hand... - Just days after a Federal Reserve meeting that penciled in an ample course of interest rate cuts next year, which in turn unleashed a broad rally in financial markets, one of the U.S. central bank's top policymakers pushed back on the ebullience on Friday. - "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now," New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview with CNBC. (WHAT????) - When it comes to the question of lowering rates, "I just think it's just premature to be even thinking about that" as the central bank continues to mull whether monetary policy is in the right place to help guide inflation back to its 2% target, he said. DEFLATION concept entering the market - Deflation is happening on the "goods" side of the U.S. economy, or the tangible objects that Americans buy, economists said. - For one, a strong U.S. dollar makes imported goods cheaper. Some of those savings get passed on to consumers, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. ----- A strong dollar is a likely contributor to deflation in certain categories like household furniture and appliances, Zandi said. Additionally, weaker demand may be a factor: Households that spent liberally on home goods in the early days of Covid-19 lockdowns are likely no longer doing so, he added. --- Broadly, the pandemic snarled global supply chains, causing shortages that fueled big spikes in prices. Energy costs surged when Russia invaded Ukraine, pushing up transportation and other distribution costs. ------ Now, supply-chain disruptions are largely in the rearview mirror, economists said. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, for example, has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels from historic highs at the end of 2021. - Some prices, like those for airline tickets and eggs, are also falling back to earth after hitting record-high levels. The latter, for example, soared largely due to a historically deadly bout of avian flu among egg-laying hens. Egg and airline ticket prices are down about 22% and 12% in the past year, according to CPI data. Year Over Year November - Not Seasonally Adjusted - Does not include rents/housing. ( A big part of the the CPI index) Deflation - Food/Energy Deflation - All Items (X) Red Sea - War is hell - now ships diverted - Have to go around Cape Horn adding massive time for deliveries - Will this cause any price hikes? - Oil Prices? FedEx Earnings - FedEx shares tumbled 8% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the package-delivery giant lowered its revenue forecast as weaker demand hit sales. - The company said it expects a low-single-digit decline in revenue for the fiscal year, down from a previous forecast for flat sales year-over-year - less that analysts predicted. - It's the second consecutive quarter FedEx has lowered its sales outlook. - Meanwhile - Apple lowered its numbers for several quarters and the stock still rallies (Buybacks) Layoffs Auto - General Motors plans to lay off about 1,300 workers in Michigan starting early next year due to ve...

Duration:01:02:25

DHUnplugged #681: Diverging Outcomes

12/12/2023
Up Up Up - Santa will be pleased. Diverging outcomes. Interesting M&A activity and a blast from the past. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024 - Deals - opened and closed - M&A - Two outcomes - same datapaoints - Diverging Outcomes - Caught Red handed - Guess the Bank (again) - Gamestop's new strategy Market Update - Bitcoin Update - Boom and Busting - Just as everyone getting back in - Big News for CRISPR - Big price too! - Gas prices -LOW - OIL - keeps going lower - VIX - 5-year LOW History: Jan. 5, 2022: The Dow hit its all-time high of 36,952.65. Today's Close: 36,577.94 SHAMELESS PLUGS - H&C/JCD VIX - Sub 13 print - - Lowest since 2018! - No Fear - no hedging DataPoints - Soft landing - not much different than a vibrant economy - How do yo have a vibrant economy when Fed trying to slow down? - Data supports hard and soft landing - Diverging outcomes - which is it? Caught AGAIN - Wells Fargo was snared in an industrywide probe into mortgage bankers' use of loan discounts last year, CNBC has learned.| - The discounts, known as pricing exceptions, are used by mortgage personnel to help secure deals in competitive markets. At Wells Fargo, for instance, bankers could request pricing exceptions that typically lowered a customer's APR by between 25 to 75 basis points. - The practice, used for decades across the home loan industry, has triggered regulators' interest in recent years over possible violations of U.S. fair lending laws. Black and female borrowers got fewer pricing exceptions than other customers, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has found. More Competition - AMD! - Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft said at an AMD investor event last week they will use AMD's newest AI chip, the Instinct MI300X. - If AMD's latest high-end chip is good enough for the technology companies and cloud service providers building and serving AI models when it starts shipping early next year, it could lower costs for developing AI models, and put competitive pressure on Nvidia' - NVDA slid for a hot second - then buying happened again.... - AMD stock up to $137 (about 10% from comments) Bitcoin - Bitcoin hit $44,000 last Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds. - Bitcoin down $4200 on this money... - Jamie Dimon thrashes out about crypto - ---"I've always been deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin, et cetera," --- "If I was the government, I'd close it down," M&A - U.S. health insurer Cigna has ended its attempt to negotiate an acquisition of rival Humana after the pair failed to agree on price - Instead - Cigna announced plans to buy back $10 billion worth of shares - Shares rallied 12% on the news - HOW ABOUT LOWERING HEALTH INSURANCE COSTS??? More M&A - An investor group consisting of Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital has made a $5.8 billion offer to take department store chain Macy's private, according to a person familiar with the matter on Sunday. - Is this for real or just pump and dump stunt? - Stock is up 70% in last 30 days - you think anyone knew about this? - WHY would someone buy a dying department store? Real Estate? New Strategy - Ganestop - OH MY - In its quarterly report released last Wednesday night, GameStop announced two changes to its corporate investment plan: 1) company cash can now be used to buy equities instead of just short-term debt, 2) and that Cohen is in charge of the investments. Blast from the Past - Picard, is the lawyer working on collecting for Madoff claims

Duration:01:00:27

DHUnplugged #680: Too Many Bulls

12/5/2023
Everyone is bullish - that seems a bit overdone at this point. Tax Trap - Watch-out! Economic data remains strong - jobs data showing weakness (JOLTS) Bond yields sink - herd mentality and Fed bulls working it. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - So many bulls! Deafening.... (we know what that usually means..) - A new book for young investors - can we discuss or still a secret? - China - credit rating issue - My favorite charade,, scheme, scam of 2023 Market Update - Gold at all-time high! - Bitcoin Update - Moving - Alt assets picking up - good or bad? - Big money into Money markets - watch out for this trap Bitcoin - Bitcoin hit $44,000 on Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds. - Bitcoin is up 55% from the year's low of $26,533 on Oct. 11. - UP 165% YTD - Still way off record high of $69k - Nov 2021 Gold - Hitting ATH -- Reasons?? Risk -off or USD sinking? - Gold miners ETF still 10% below 2023 peak --- Time to buy? Rare Earth Metals - Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for electric vehicles, cell phones and other electronics. - China began to rapidly expand in the industry starting during the 1980s and now controls 87% of global rare earths refining capacity - US spots in Alaska and other western states starting to look for ways to mine - in "clean" and efficient manner - FYI - RARE is not really rare - Considered RARE only due to difficulty in extraction process - These elements rarely exist in pure form; they are usually found within other minerals, making them costly to mine. Oil Prices - Now Sitting at $72 --- OPEC+ can't seem to agree and now concern demand waning CHINA - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded its outlook on China's government credit ratings to negative from stable - Moody's expects Beijing's support and possible bailouts for distressed local governments and state-owned enterprises to diminish China's fiscal, economic and institutional strength. - Moody's though retained China's "A1" long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds, - Seems like this is going to be happening for a while - rolling downgrades of countries with excessive debt Canada - Greater Toronto Area home prices fell in November as higher borrowing costs crimped affordability, while the level of sales edged higher for the first time in six months - The seasonally adjusted average home price fell 2.2% in November from October to C$1,104,062 ($815,769), marking the fourth decline in the last five months. - New listings climbed 16.5% year-over-year but decelerating from the 38% pace of increase posted in October. Switzerland - A major Swiss bank admitted to conspiring with U.S. taxpayers and others to hide over $5.6 billion from the Internal Revenue Service - Banque Pictet, the private banking division of the 218-year-old Pictet Group, will pay about $122.9 million in restitution and penalties as part of an agreement with prosecutors - Where does that money go? - Between 2008 and 2014, the bank had 1,637 accounts on behalf of American clients, who collectively evaded approximately $50.6 million in U.S. taxes, the DOJ said. - The accounts themselves held more than $5.6 billion of the roughly $20 billion in total assets from U.S. taxpayers that the bank managed during the relevant period. ----- Does taxpayer have to pay anything? - Swiss banks are not so special anymore... VIX and Gamma - An epic rally in U.S. stocks has sent Wall Street's fear gauge to a post-pandemic low.

Duration:00:59:53

DHUnplugged #679: Rally Santa Rally!

11/28/2023
Heading toward the barn - traders looking for Santa to come though for December November was a pretty spectacular month for stocks... Oil - OPEC+ making some moves - crude prices diving. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Announcing the Winner - CROC's and Entries for the CTP Cup 2023 - Thanksgiving is over - heading into the end of the year and investors appear excited - More strikes on the horizon - Black Friday numbers are in - surprise - no surprise| - Temporary Cease Fire - Extended a few days - A Limerick Market Update - Short week - great month.... Best month in 2023 for most indices - AI got its grove back - Microsoft saved the day ! - - VIX hits low since the pandemic - KRI indicator +4 and holding with several clusters - Yields holding down - Housing numbers poor and economy slowly slowing - OIL! OPEC+ delays meeting - oil plunges on Wednesday... - Fed Parade of Talking heads is at it again.... Following: - Slap in Face? OpenAI not anticipated to offer MSFT a board seat on its new board, according to The Information - "It’s a sign that the board will prioritize safety practices ahead of investor returns." Word Watch - Seeing this word starting to seep into all sorts of areas - "ELEVATED" - Schwab ad: "An elevated experience tailor made for trader minds" - Pinky up! December - Traders and Investors heading for home.... - Santa Rally is a possibility, especially if we see a quick dump to get rid of some of this froth.... - So much bad news is baked in and plenty of momentum - USD breaking below the 50-day - good for stocks and commods VIX - FRIDAY - The VIX index of implied volatility on the S&P500 plunged to its lowest close since just before the COVID-19 shock unfolded in 2020 - an extreme some fear will inspire demand for options hedging and reversion back toward historic mean. It ticked back up to regain a foothold above 13 today. - This is interesting as other metrics are calling for extreme overheat - KRI +4 and holding with clusters (+5 or +6 is very concerning) - S&P 500, NASDAQ all high (HIGH) levels of RSI - Spearman +97 (HIGH) ----- McClellan +137 (complex above zero line) Markets Love it! - Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) in Q&A says if inflation continues to fall for several more months, the policy rate could be lowered; if there is a consistent decline in inflation, no reason for rates to remain really high Black Friday Update - Cut and paste every year - US online revenue up 7.5% from last year: Adobe Analytics (NOTE: Nominal - not adjusted for inflation) - Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US, Adobe Analytics reported, offering a positive sign for retailers facing lackluster sales forecasts for the holiday season. - Demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment helped boost the day’s online sales by 7.5% compared with last year. - Consumers extended their budgets by leaning on buy-now, pay-later options, which climbed by 72% from the week before Thanksgiving (AFRM stock?) --- On the other hand: US Black Friday sales rise 2.5% (less than anticipated) according to Mastercard and many looking for bargains - E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year as consumers shopped for deals online, while in-store sales increased by 1.1%, MasterCard Spendingpulse said. Bank Closures (JCD) - Big banks like PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase filed for closing several of their branches in multiple states last week amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns over the past years. - Altogether, banks filed for shutting down 64 branches.

Duration:01:03:44

DHUnplugged #678: Manufactroversy

11/21/2023
AI technology in the hot seat. Apple gives in to pressure on messaging Short week - plenty of action. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - CROCs CTP is almost over - 4 days until end... Then December starts the CTP CUP 2024! - - Back from an RCL cruise- my, have things changed - Market starting to overheat (KRI +5) - End of Year - Santa Claus Rally - on schedule - PSI - Markets Closed Thursday and after 1pm Friday - Big doings in Crypto World - Pied Pipers (Binance now in hot water) Market Update - WEIRD Action - in the AI Space - Fire, Quit, Oust and then Hire - USD continues to fall - VIX has a 13 handle - BIG news - NVDA earnings What in the? - Sam Altman pushed out over the weekend.... --- Hair on FIRE in Silicon Valley - - Weekend scramble - MSFT picks up Altman to hear AI Unit - Hundreds of OpenAI employees have signed a letter demanding the board resign or face an employee exodus to Sam Altman’s new venture at Microsoft “eminently.” - What is going on? MORE OpenAI - OpenAI named ex-Twitch boss Emmett Shear as interim CEO - Commercialization of product seems to be at the heart of the matter - Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella said in posts on X that Altman would become CEO of a new research group inside the software maker, along with other departing OpenAI colleagues such as outgoing President Greg Brockman who quit following Altman's ouster. --- Was there a deeper and darker plan here? Hmmm- This sounds Off - OpenAI customers are looking for the exits, signaling a possible exodus of business that could devastate the startup. - More than 100 OpenAI customers contacted OpenAI competitor Anthropic over the weekend, a startup that has raised billions from both Amazon and Google in recent months, according to someone familiar with the situation. - Sounds like companies trying to create a corpse and pick on its remains or manufactroversy - A manufactured controversy is a contrived disagreement, typically motivated by profit or ideology, designed to create public confusion concerning an issue about which there is no substantial academic dispute. This concept has also been referred to as manufactured uncertainty. BitCoin ETF - I was interviewed about this very topic last week by Paul Barron (he intimated I was a boomer - look up the view) - The US Securities and Exchange Commission has deferred making a decision again on whether to approve the first US exchange-traded fund that invests directly in Bitcoin. - The primary US securities regulator deferred on filings from Franklin and Globe X, according to documents Friday. The deferrals come after delays for other filers because both companies had put More Crypto Crap - Changpeng “CZ” Zhao is stepping down as CEO of Binance as part of a major $4 billion settlement between the Department of Justice and the cryptocurrency exchange he founded, according to sources close to the discussions with the agency. - The settlement will be with the DOJ and Commodities Futures Trading Commission; the Securities and Exchange Commission is not participating. - As part of the settlement, Zhao will also plead guilty to anti-money laundering charges brought by the Department of Justice. He is scheduled to enter the plea in federal court in Seattle on Tuesday afternoon, the Wall Street Journal reported. - Binance, the DOJ, CFTC, and SEC had not replied to requests for comment at the time of publication. - The SEC charged Binance, and its founder CZ, in June with operating an unregistered exchange and misleading investors by using a Switzerland-based fund Sigma Chain, which was also owned by CZ,

Duration:00:59:38

DHUnplugged #677: Shut-Up Shut-Down

11/14/2023
Only days until money runs out - will the government shot-down? Markets on the herky-jerky, thanks to the Fed and Mr. Powell. Major retail earnings out this week - winners and losers. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - 4-days until shut- down / anyone care? (Shut up about shut-down already - Moody's angry - Moves US rating outlook - Croc's CTP Still Open of Entries| - Thanksgiving - What are we doing - menu items! - BOOM! CPI dips a bit ad market RAMP (KRE up 7% IWM up 5%+) Market Update - Herky Jerky - Thanks to Fed - Big names continue to push up index values - KRI +2 Slight Overheating - Retailers earnings this week, Walmart, Target Etc -- Consumers in the spotlight Moody's - Moody's on Friday changed the outlook on the government of United States of America's ratings to "negative" from "stable". - The rating agency said it expects United States' fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability. - Moody's affirmed the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings at "Aaa". - Another wake up call to the administration/govy of US to get their shot together. Fed - Powell was in push-0back mode on Thursday on a speech that he clearly stated that there is probably more work to be done to conquer inflation - "If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so," Powell cautioned a market still betting both that rate hikes are done and that three cuts are coming next year, starting as soon as June. - Same day as the Bond market glitch, which as problematic - Not to worry, by Firiday no-one believed Powell an ran markets up hard (one of the best days for NAZ100 in 2023 Consumers - The consumer took a spending break ahead of the holiday season, with October retail sales, excluding autos and gas, falling by 0.08%, and core retail, which also removes restaurants, declining by 0.03% (CNBC Monitor) - The October data showed weakness in gas station sales, electronics and appliances and furniture and home stores. There was strength in sporting goods and hobby stores and non-store retails, or internet sales, along with health and personal care. Ransonware Attack - Biggest bank - Could this be the reason Treasury auction last Thursday was so weak (smacking down markets) - Sources told Bloomberg that ICBC Financial Services, a U.S. subsidiary of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, relied on the offline system to process trades of U.S. Treasuries after it was hit by a ransomware attack on Wednesday. - It could take days to reconnect ICBC to the electronic settlement system, Reuters reported. - Analysts say the attack, which disrupted the U.S. Treasury market on Thursday, was likely the work of LockBit, a Russia-linked criminal gang that was also accused of hacking Boeing earlier this year. Today, the group claimed responsibility in messages to reporters. Planes! - Emirates Airline on Monday announced an order for 95 Boeing aircraft at a value of $52 billion, kicking off the first major deal of the 2023 Dubai Airshow. - The state-owned flagship Dubai carrier, a subsidiary of Emirates Group, is ordering 55 additional Boeing 777-9s and 35 of its 777-8s, bringing the airline's total orders for the 777X widebody jets to 205 units. It is also updating its order of Boeing 787 Dreamliners from 30 to 35, comprised of 15 787-10s and 20 787-8s. - Being up 3% on the news Interesting... - Exxon aims to become a top lithium producer for electric vehicles with Arkansas drill operation - Exxon earlier this year purchased 120,000 acres of a geological site in southern Arkansas called the Smackover Formation that is rich in lithium.

Duration:00:57:41

DHUnplugged #676: DCB or BMR?

11/7/2023
Markets on fire - is it for real? Announcing a new Closest to the Pin! Household debt update - market thoughts and more... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Following up on last week's data deluge - Wondering - was it a DCB or a BMR (Dead Cat Bounce - Bull Market Rally) - WeWork is now WeBroke - 70 hour workweek? - GUILTY -Another Shutdown countdown Market Update - Household Debt reaches milestone - South Korea "leveling the playing field" - Best week of 2023 - Apple Earnings (Does anyone care?) - Microsoft - Big Move Headline - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on track for their longest streak of gains in two years, as a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields buoyed megacap growth stocks and investors sought more clarity on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. - Best week of 2023 - NASDAQ up 6%! Microsoft - Big Move! - OpenAI and other AI has been good tailwind for the company - Stock closing in on ATH -- H&C Clients own the stock MSFT CHART FOLLOW UP : What to Expect from the Data Deluge - ISM on Friday (Services) - 53 vs 53 last - Employment - 160k and 3.8% (steady) - ISM Manufacturing 49 vs 49 (contraction) - FOMC Rate Decision (pause/pass/no change) - (Add in Treasury issuance needed to make up deficit and Apple earnings) ----- Result? Pretty much inline - Fed said one thing: Risk balanced about doing too much or too little and market went bananas --------Apple - Not impressive and outlook for this coming quarter not so good - but stock moves higher Countdown - November 17th is the end of the short-term budget extension Apple Earnings - EPS: $1.46 per share vs. $1.39 per share expected - Revenue: $89.5 billion vs. $89.28 billion expected - iPhone revenue: $43.81 billion vs. $43.81 billion expected - Mac revenue: $7.61 billion vs. $8.63 billion expected - iPad revenue: $6.44 billion vs. $6.07 billion expected - Wearables revenue: $9.32 billion vs. $9.43 billion expected - Services revenue: $22.31 billion vs $21.35 billion expected - Gross margin: 45.2% vs. 44.5% expected - - Outlook - Not Great - and blamed one less week in the 4th quarter on outlook - - - Stock Down initially then rose with market Skinny Drugs - Novo Nordisk said on Thursday it will supply "significantly" more doses of Wegovy in the U.S. next year, even as it cautioned shortages of the weight-loss injection would continue in the short to medium term. - The Danish drugmaker, which this year overtook LVMH as Europe's most valuable listed company, posted record operating profit and sales for the third quarter, underscoring the phenomenal success of Wegovy so far. -"Specifically on the U.S. market, we'll be supplying significantly more in 2024 compared to what we are in 2023," Novo's CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen said in an interview. - H&C clients own NVO for past several months More Drugs - - Moderna said its 2023 sales would only hit the low end of its $6 billion to $8 billion forecast, reflecting weaker demand for COVID-19 vaccines, and its shares slumped 8%. - The vaccine maker also pushed back to 2025 - Stock down 59% YTD Household Debt - "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows total household debt increased by $228 billion (1.3%) in the third quarter of 2023, to $17.29 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed's nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. - Mortgage balances rose by $126 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $12.14 trillion at the end of September. - Credit card balances increased by $48 billion ...

Duration:00:57:46

DHUnplugged #675: Data Deluge

10/31/2023
Apple earnings are this week, along with a Fed rate decision, Treasury supply and the Employment report. A deluge of data over the next few days. War time markets - skittish and on edge. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - End of Earnings Season - Droop - Big Week - Treasury $, Apple Earnings, Fed Rate Decision and BLS Employment - All of a sudden - export bans may hurt chip companies (after denying any material impact) -Big prediction on oil prices (but market thinks otherwise) ------ Oil signalling less concern - EV's all of a sudden a cold shoulder Market Update - Apple News - Weird time of day (8pm Monday) - Biden AI Executive Order - May hit some stocks - Strikes just about over in Car Country - big costs - Data deluge this week - expect investors to be on edge OIL Prediction - World bank out with prediction - Worst case scenario, if war widens could result in increased food prices worldwide - If no expansion - oil will average $81 next year - Medium disruption - prices up 35% - Large disruption - prices could go up 50-75% Market Technical View - Defined Channel - DOWN MARKET TREND What to Expect from the Data Deluge - ISM on Friday (Services) - 53 vs 53 last - Employment - 160k and 3.8% (steady) - ISM Manufacturing 49 vs 49 (contraction) - FOMC Rate Decision (pause/pass/no change) - (Add in Treadury issuance needed to make up deficit and Apple earnings) Ganging up on Yellen - Several critical comments about Yellen's term as Treasury Secratary and Fed Chair --- Could have issued and locked in VERY cheap rates for long-term (50/00 yer bonds?) ----- Idea is sound, but there are other considerations that could have been problematic Apple Update - Apple on Monday (at 8PM ET) announced a new MacBook Pro lineup featuring the all-new family of M3 chips: M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max. With a next-generation GPU architecture and a faster CPU, the M3 family brings even more performance and remarkable new capabilities to MacBook Pro. - The new 14?inch MacBook Pro with M3 is not only great for everyday tasks, but also delivers phenomenal sustained performance in pro apps and games. Perfect for aspiring creatives, students, and entrepreneurs, it now starts at $1,599. - The 14- and 16?inch MacBook Pro with M3 Pro provides even greater performance and additional unified memory support, enabling more demanding workflows for users like coders, creatives, and researchers. - The 14- and 16?inch MacBook Pro with M3 Max delivers performance and capabilities that push the limits of computing. - basically - faster chips, new finish to case (black ) - Apple also cut the price of its entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro, from at least $1999 to $1599, although it gets a less powerful M3 chip, instead of the "Pro"-level chip on last year's model. - Note - 3 days before earnings as the Mac sales have been an issue in a decline sales environment (3 consecutive YOY declines) Follow Up - Florida Real Estate - Due to the Sufside building collapse, new laws for reserve set-asides. --- This is on top of the added costs for HOA and COA insurance increaes - “People are going to be losing their homes. Foreclosures are increasing,” warned Broward County Commissioner Mark Bogen. “As it looks right now, there are going to be so many people unable to live in their homes…. This is going to really be a crisis in our state.” - DECADES - condo associations did not put aside enough $ for future repairs, now new law could require rainy day funds ---- (Ultimately this will be retracted if fully implemented as condo prices will crash) - Not limited to Florida Executive Order

Duration:01:01:54

DHUnplugged #674: Concentrated Returns

10/24/2023
Tech earnings are in the spotlight. Fed blackout period on until the next rate decision- coming up. Shutdown - STILL LOOMING! The fishing trip of a lifetime ! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Change of tune .. inflation is old news - Big tech moving markets - earnings out - AI now to blame for higher costs (lower earnings) - In the heart of earnings season Market Update - Fed holding on to outlook - Worries bout default and no speaker of the house - Earnings continue to confuse as no absolute trend Guatemala - wow epic fishing adventure (just got in 2 hours ago) - 3 days of once in a lifetime fishing - Sailfish, Dorado, YellowFin Tuna (1000's of lbs caught over 3 days) - Spinner Dolphin (porpoise) everywhere November 15th Webinar "2024 - What's in Store? Register for the November 15th, 2024 Webinar Back on the attack - A bipartisan group of 33 attorneys general is suing Meta over addictive features aimed at kids and teens, according to a complaint filed Tuesday in a federal court in California. The support from so many state AGs of different political backgrounds indicates a significant legal challenge to Meta's business. - The federal suit also accuses Meta of violating the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) by collecting personal data on users under 13 without parental consent. - The states are seeking an end to what they see as Meta's harmful practices, as well as penalties and restitution. JP Morgan's Dimon -JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said the fact that central banks got financial forecasting “100% dead wrong” about 18 months ago should prompt some humility about the outlook for next year. -Speaking on a panel at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Dimon voiced doubts that central banks and governments around the world could manage the economic fallout from rising inflation and slowing global growth. M&A -Chevron (CVX.N) agreed to buy U.S. rival Hess (HES.N) for $53 billion in stock in a deal that reflects top U.S. energy companies drive for oil and gas assets in a world seeking lower-risk future fossil supplies and higher shareholder returns. - We've got too many CEOs per BOE (barrels of oil equivalent), so consolidation is natural," said Chevron Chief Executive Michael Wirth, adding the world could expect to see other deals. Ackman's Change of Tune - Ackman’s move to exit his short against the 30-year Treasury could be a sign that his main fear is shifting from an overheated economy featuring higher interest rates and inflation to a slowing economy that could fall into recession amid geopolitical risks - The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests,” Ackman wrote in a Monday post on X, formerly Twitter, adding that “there is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates.” - Remember when he gave the dire warning during COVID "HELL IS COMING" Stepping it up -The White House on Monday said Iran was in some cases "actively facilitating" rocket and drone attacks by Iranian-backed proxy groups on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria, and President Biden has directed the Department of Defense to brace for more and respond appropriately. - No end in sight - Lot's of discussion how that could actually help to tamp down inflation Davos of the Desert - The annual event is typically used by attendees as an opportunity to build relationships with some of Saudi Arabia's biggest companies and its $778-billion sovereign wealth fund, drawn by the promise of deals as the kingdom embarks on an ambitious reform plan to wean its economy off oil.

Duration:00:59:14

DHUnplugged #673: War Is $$

10/17/2023
More War? More Money? Bond yields surged on latest PPI and CPI Earnings in the spotlight - So far - so good. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Better than expected - again... - More earnings coming this week - (TSLA, BAC, NFLX) - Banks in the spotlight - WAR - seems as if War playbook needs to be brought out and dusted off - Swifty's buy up movie tickets - MORE STRIKES! Market Update - Market in downtrend to consolidating ahead of news - Most markets are looking past the Israel war/issues - Big concern that this will spread and oil prices will keep rising - War is good? $$$ and maybe the final straw that the Fed is looking at and saying.... Maybe a pause is warranted. November 15th Webinar "2024 - What's in Store? Israel/Middle East - Does not appear to be an easy way out of this - Israel stock market not ding well - ETF (EIS) down 11% since this all began - US military selects 2,000 troops to prepare for a potential deployment to support Israel, but are not intended for combat, according to WSJ Tesla Earnings Outlook - Reports Wednesday 10/18 - Annual goal 1.8 million delivered - Margins expected to be at 4-year low of 18.1% (some think could drop below 15%) - FactSet EPS consensus: 0.73 - FactSet Rev consensus: 24.26 bln Tesla Profitibility Trend Stock News - Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech — Shares of Pfizer dropped 1.3% Monday after the company slashed its full-year revenue guidance by $9 billion, noting waning demand for its Covid treatment and vaccine. - Rite-Aid declares bankruptcy (Chapter 11) - LuluLemon - Stock being added to the SP500 (Stock up to to 52 week high) (Taking place of Activision Blizzard - Schwab beat on earnings, a bit light on Revenue - stock initially down, but better than feared - Ferrari has started to accept payment in cryptocurrency for its luxury sports cars in the U.S. and will extend the scheme to Europe following requests from its wealthy customers (remember Tesla accepted for a while then halted program due to environmental concerns) - Mictosoft - Activision Blizzard takeover has been approved by UK regulators... Clearing way for deal to close Other Earnings - BAC Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.90 per share, $0.07 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.83; revenues rose 2.8% year/year to $25.2 bln vs the $25.13 bln FactSet Consensus. - - - - - -Noninterest expense of $15.8B in 3Q23 increased $0.5B, or 3%, vs. 3Q22, driven by increased investments in the franchise across people and technology, as well as higher FDIC expense from the increased assessment on banks announced in 2022. - - - - - - - Net interest income (NII) up $614 million, or 4%, to $14.4 billion ($14.5 billion FTE)(B) , driven primarily by benefits from higher interest rates and loan growth.. - - - - - - -Provision for credit losses of $1.2 billion increased $336 million. China - China is considering creating a state-backed stabilization fund to shore up confidence in its equity markets - What does that mean? ---- Fund with lots of money from the state to buy stocks when they are down. The ultimate bailout for investors ---- News out that State-owned banks are buying state buying other state owned bank shares - that is something special Economics - PPI and CPI both came in hotter than expected this month - Expected and unexpected - Bonds yields rallied initially then hit some technical resistance - - Rate hike expectations ticked up, then moved back as concern over Middle-Eat conflict grows Social Security COLA - 3.2% increase for 2024 for COLA - 8.7% for 2023 - 5.9% for 2022 - - - 18.9% increase in over 3 years!

Duration:01:02:26

DHUnplugged #672: Surprises

10/10/2023
Jobs report - a blowout. Build the Wall (again). Short squeeze - that was something. What other surprises can the market ignore? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ROFL - Experts have no idea - Strikes still coming - Virginia is cold - Building a Wall! - Announcing the Winner of the CTP for NVDA Market Update - Employment Report Hot - Markets cave and then..... - Next up on list of surprses - Israel conflict (odd market action - but explainable) - Not a surprise - Fed gang talks down rate hike - Once again - entering earnings season - Even more potential strikes JOBS - U.S. employment increased by the most in eight months in September as hiring rose broadly, pointing to persistent labor market strength that could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to raise interest rates again, though wage growth is slowing. - The larger-than-expected surge in nonfarm payrolls last month and sharp upward revisions to July and August's jobs counts reported by the Labor Department in its closely watched employment report on Friday cemented expectations that economic activity accelerated in the third quarter. - Bond yields initially surged, then came back a bit - for whatever reason stocks surged late morning into the end of the day - - Bond yields came in a bit, but weird situation - still elevated. Looked like a short-cover extraordinaire initially ---- Here is other side of the thinking (bull camp (just keep investing) - "With bond yields soaring, the dollar strengthening, and equity market volatility increasing there is a renewed tightening of financial conditions that does some of the work for the Fed, so it's not a done deal the Fed hikes rates again," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. ----------The broad increase in payrolls was led by the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 96,000 jobs. Restaurants and bars dominated, with 61,000 positions created, returning employment in the sector back to its pre-pandemic level. Strike is On - Tens of thousands of nurses and other healthcare workers launched a planned three-day strike at Kaiser Permanente facilities across the U.S. on Wednesday, after contract talks failed to meet the union deadline for reaching a settlement. - Only going to get worse - MORE--> Pharmacy employees at some U.S. Walgreens stores, including pharmacists, technicians and support staff, plan a walkout this week - between Monday and Wednesday - The walkout is in response to what pharmacy employees call burdensome prescription and vaccination expectations placed on pharmacists, the report said. Tesla - Needs to be in the news everyday - clearly this is a general plan by management - Drops prices again after lower unit deliveries - stock ignores the reality - Something weird with the stock recently...Way too much optimism (either manipulation/inside buying/something else?) War - Israel and ... - Big horrible situation in the Mid-East - Oil surges on conflict - Gaza strip cuttoff - ground offensive about to begin - Quite the social media war going on - misinformation on parade ---- Sunday futures get knocked then markets rally on Monday (see below) Fed - Not Surprising - Top ranking Federal Reserve officials indicated Monday that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which directly influence financing costs for households and businesses, could steer the Fed from further increases in its short-term policy rate and substitute the work done by financial markets for formal monetary policy moves by the central bank. - "We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we have to balance the risk of not having tightened enough,

Duration:01:04:17