DHUnplugged Podcast

DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident) Dangerous market - running on emotions Tesla Earnings are out... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Chatroom still a work in progress it appears Warm Up - Politics Goes off the rails - Biden out (Failed) - Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident) - Dangerous market - running on emotions Market Update - DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages - massive losses as UNH fails to keep up (accounted for 500+ points of that big rally in July) - Market broadened out finally - then the mega-caps started to come in and market was crushed - - Tesla Earnings are out - other tech names too Need a new CTP Market Emotions - Now that we are in the throws of the election cycle - dangerous market - Running on emotion - and you can see that we levels (round like futures markets @ES - 5,600 and @NQ 20,000 levels as battle lines) - People will think that one or other candidate is good or bad and will invest accordingly (usually without facts) - Biden dropping out has interesting impact - Now we have one candidate that we really do not know actual policy and track record. Also unknown VP ... Crowdstrike Glitch - Anything on your end a problem? - Some minor trading issues with Schwab for a minute on Friday - Airlines - still seem to be having issues - Bigger issues when relying on single company? - Friday and over weekend MSFT said that they restored a majority of services - Hackers are already taking advantage of situation and Crowdstike out with warnings (some firms may get phished into beleiving that there is a fix and it is actually a hack) Delta Offers Apologies+ - CEO Ed Bastian offered Freq flyer miles to travelers that were stuck due to Crowdstrike "glitch" - 800 flights were cancelled Sunday (22% of flights) - The airline was offering flight attendants extra pay to pick up shifts - WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR THIS? (Crowdstike and passengers) Tech - Wiz Walks - $23 billion - they say NO THANKS - Wiz - 4 year old start up that makes security tools to protect data centers - May valuation was $12 billion - Company wants to go the IPO route Election - Sooooo - thoughts on the Biden dropout? (Via letter and Social Media - is that weird?) - Trump Trade fade? - Vance tough on anything foreign? (USA First) - Anyone else aside from Harris? Bank Earnings - Looking back - not much to be upset about - so that is good - Rate expectations are for September (Dec more likely) - Yield curve has steepened (good for profit margin of banks) - Fed continues to be dovish - Trump expectations of reduced regulations? More Earnings - Google/Alphabet - Alphabet prelim Q2 $1.89 vs $1.84 FactSet Consensus; revs $84.74 bln vs $84.22 bln FactSet Consensus --- Margin 32% vs 29& a year ago (Stock initially up then tuend lower on lower advert revenue and other AI comments) - Tesla Earnings - Tesla prelim Q2 $0.52 vs $0.61 FactSet Consensus; revs $25.5 bln vs $24.38 bln FactSet Consensus -- Tesla prelim: GAAP gross margin of 18.0%, down 23 bps yr/yr ---- Tesla prelim: reiterates that in 2024, its vehicle growth rate may be notably lower than growth rate achieved in 2023 (Stock down 5%) - Visa: Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $2.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $2.42; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $8.9 bln vs the $8.92 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock down 10%) Warren - Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its gigantic Bank of America holding for the first time in four and a half years following the bank's strong 2024 run.

Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit) Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being considered at the moment) KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020 Earnings growth expected to continue.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Chatroom should be back up and running.... Warm Up - Assassination Attempts = Market Positive (for US Markets ONLY) - ALL TIME HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD - SMALL CAPS ON A BENDER - Disinflation OUT - Deflation IN - College athletes - Min Wage? Market Update - Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit) - Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being considered at the moment) - KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020 - Earnings growth expected to continue.... - Gold at ATH - Bitcoin moving - Risk on or Worries about the future? OH MY - Small Caps +10% MTD , 11% YTD (Tom Lee calling for 40% move over next 12 weeks...) - Value over Growth - Real Estate - Builders - WOW! --- Jump from 50 to 400+ 52 Week Highs today ----- Money coming out of Big boys - rotating and it is uneven pull/push - KRE - Regional banks up 14% this month ----- DJIA UP BIG AGAIN - Rates holding at lower end of the range Post Assassination Attempt (Monday Markets) - European Markets RED across the board - Russian Market GREEN - China RED - Japan RED - US Markets GREEN - Bitcoin and Ether - GREEN Powell on Monday - Markets came in as Powell -ONCE AGAIN - repeated the same mantra of not done - but looking to cut before we reach 2% -B.O.R.I.N.G. Trump Media - DJT Stock: Trump Media shares surged over 50% in premarket trading Monday following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. - Was up 30% by end of day on Monday China Economic Update - China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country's second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7% year on year, missing expectations of a 5.1% growth, according to a Reuters poll. - Retail sales also missed expectations, rising by 2% year-on-year in June, versus the 3.3% forecast. - Industrial production beat expectations up by 5.3% in June from a year ago, above the forecast 5% increase. - Urban fixed asset investment for the first six months of the year rose by 3.9%, matching expectations. - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year on- year in the first quarter. KRI Indicator - Hitting +6 and that has not happened since June 2020 - First time over +5 since Dec 2023 (pulled back a few days later, then continued its upward trajectory - Rolled over a bit a few days later then continued its upward trajectory (BULL MARKET) Any Surprise? Retail.... - Macy's -14.2% is sharply lower after terminating M&A talks with Arkhouse Mgmt and Brigade Capital - Burberry, a luxury brand which trades in London, also issued a profit warning and named a new CEO. - These developments are leading to weakness in some department store names: JWN -3%, KSS -2.7%, DDS -2.3%. - Consumer is starting to fight back????? DEFLATION? - CPI was NEGATIVE MoM - PPI was hot and cold - depending on what number you looked at Deflation CPI Chart Finally! - Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook "Bill" Hwang was convicted of fraud and other charges by a jury in Manhattan federal court on Wednesday at a criminal trial in which prosecutors accused him of market manipulation ahead of the 2021 collapse of his $36 billion private investment firm. - The trial centered on the implosion of Hwang's family office Archegos,

Shark Week (Market Style) - Whale Gorging - Big Teeth - Big Appetites Earnings season coming up Biden staying in the race (for now) Complacency nearing a tipping point. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Shark Week - Whale Gorging - Big Teeth - Big Appetites - Earnings season coming up - Biden staying in the race - Market Moves - the inside track - NEW - ALL ABOUT BIDEN ISSSUES Market Update - Big Swings - Massive Rotation - Employment Report for June - Market Moves - the inside track - Big Box - down to a few Fed First - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Q&A with Senate Banking Committee: The "likely next direction" of policy will be a loosening of policy; rate hike not likely Employment Reports - Private payroll growth edged lower in June, according to a report Wednesday from ADP that indicates a potential slowdown in the U.S. labor market. - Companies added 150,000 jobs for the month, below the upwardly revised 157,000 in May and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 160,000. The total was the lowest monthly gain since January. - BLS Official saw Unemp rate tick up to 4.1% -Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June - Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction. The Inside Track Lowdown -- People asking me "When will this end? It is crazy!" - This week we will be treated to CPI and PPI. - As it stands, Powell made comments after the close on July 3rd that they were not satisfied with the rate of change related to inflation. There is more work to be done he said. But, the markets don't really care about that - they see a cut in September and December. - The general direction of the markets - or path of least resistance appears to be up. - Investors are gorging themselves on AI related names. - The big boys (and girls) of the market are taking in big money - helping to keep markets buoyed. - - It has the look and feel of great white sharks in a ravenous feeding frenzy over a rotting whale corpse. - Full Disclosure - we hold a good number of these names in our core equity allocation. Microsoft, Nvidia, SMCI, Google (Alphabet), Meta (Facebook) and several more. - Monday moves - the DJIA was up big to start the day and at the lunchtime break was in the red. The money clearly flowed out of DJIA and into the NASDAQ100 again. So, this is how it will be for a while, or until something changes. And, that may very well be the next batch of earnings through the season that begins on this coming Friday with the major financial names. Ford - Ford truck sales, which includes pickups and vans, totaled 308,920 vehicles during the period, the company's best second-quarter performance for the category since 2019, Ford said. Sales in its F-Series totaled 199,463 vehicles. - Sales of Ford electric vehicles totaled 23,957 during the second quarter, up 61%. - The automaker said its EVs, in particular the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, are drawing new customers to the company. - Stock is stuck in a range Boeing - Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge and pay a fine of $243.6 million to resolve a U.S. Justice Department investigation into two 737 MAX fatal crashes, the government said in a court filing on Sunday. - The plea deal, which requires a judge's approval, would brand the planemaker a convicted felon in connection with crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia over a five-month period in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people. - Smart - quick slap on the wrist and get it over with (for publicity sake) - As part of the deal, the planemaker agreed to spend at least $455 million over the next three years to...

Let them eat tech! Meme stock mania may be dying down Short week - July 3rd 1/2 day, July 4 - closed - July 5? How About those Florida Panthers? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Let them eat tech! - Meme stock mania may be dying down - Short week - July 3rd 1/2 day, July 4 - closed - July 5? - How About those Florida Panthers? Market Update - Heavily weighted toward 10 stocks - breath sucks - Seeing slowdown in consumer confidence and holding steady on most economic reports - Some concerns mounting about Russia - Stress Tests - Anyone Surprised? Russia Issues - NATO wants to put a senior civilian official in Kyiv, Ukraine - Market was a little concerned about this - as new broke, selling occurred (for about 5 minutes) HA! Play with Fire - Keith Gill, the investor known as "Roaring Kitty" who helped spur the meme stock mania of 2021, was sued by GameStop investors who said they lost money through his "pump-and-dump" scheme for the videogame retailer. - A proposed class action accusing Gill of securities fraud was filed on Friday in the Brooklyn, New York federal court. - Investors led by Martin Radev, who lives in the Las Vegas area, said Gill manipulated GameStop securities between May 13 and June 13 by quietly accumulating large quantities of stock and call options, and then dumping some holdings after emerging from a three-year social media hiatus. More Kitty Hoo-Haa - Shares of Chewy popped in the premarket trading Monday after a Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed meme stock trader "Roaring Kitty" took a stake in the pet food e-commerce retailer. - The filing showed Keith Gill bought just over 9 million shares — amounting to a 6.6% stake in the company. That makes him the third-biggest Chewy shareholder, according to FactSet. Based on Friday's close, that stake is valued at more than $245 million. - Stock was initially p 16% in premarket (that is after some wild swings last week) ---- Close DOWN 6% on the day after that initial pop - This guy is up Ryan Cohen's butt pretty far.. Chipotle Split Update - Trading near a post-split low - Stock initially moved higher toward $68 then reverses hard over the past few sessions, trading near $60 - This is important as investors may not just run into split announcements after this performance. ---- Or people are finally agreeing with JCD on the lack of taste? Boeing - Boeing said Monday that it will buy back its struggling fuselage maker Spirit AeroSystems in an all-stock deal that the plane maker has said will improve safety and quality control. - It said it agreed to pay $37.25 a share in Boeing stock for Spirit, giving the aerospace company an equity value of $4.7 billion. Including Spirit’s debt the deal has a transaction value of $8.3 billion Boeing said. Spirit’s shares closed Friday at $32.87 a share, giving it a market capitalization of about $3.8 billion. ---- MORE: U.S. prosecutors plan to seek a guilty plea from Boeing over a charge tied to two fatal crashes of 737 Max planes, attorneys for the victims' family members said Sunday, blasting a potential agreement as a "sweetheart deal." - The DOJ said in May that it was reviewing whether Boeing violated a 2021 settlement that protected Boeing from federal charges. The company agreed to pay a $2.5 billion penalty for a conspiracy charge tied to the 2018 and 2019 crashes of its best-selling 737 Max planes, which killed all 346 people on the two flights. OIL! - Breaking out -- Concerns over supply issues due to Houthi rebels droning Suez Canal --- Hurricane season hitting early - EARLIEST Cat4 on record happening now!

- Churn and Burn - RAMP UP - Rotation (Renting Space) - Long Stretch with limited volatility - Short Interest at MULTI year lows - NVDA becomes worlds MVC for a minute PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Summer Spin Cycle - New flow shifting to election - Banks - Fed's Stress Test Results (Wednesday) - Last week of month and quarter! Market Update - Churn and Burn - RAMP UP - Rotation (Renting Space) - Long Stretch with limited volatility - Short Interest at MULTI year lows - NVDA becomes worlds MVC for a minute Next week is JULY 4th - Markets closing early (1PM) on Wednesday - Markets Closed on Thursday - Most people will take Friday off! Short Interest - Multi-Year low on S&P 500 and stocks - Hedge fund disclosures stopping some from shorting (after Meme stock craze) - Seems that no shorts helping to calm volatility Stock Market - Weird Facts - The S&P 500 has gone 377 days without a 2.05% sell-off. That's the longest stretch for the benchmark since the great financial crisis - The index hasn't experienced a gain of at least 2.15% in that time either - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is considered by many investors as the de facto fear gauge on the Street. Last month, it hit its lowest level going back to November 2020. On Friday, it traded around 13, near historically low levels. - Complacency or Green-Light? Home Prices - Sales of previously owned homes are sitting at a 30-year low, and didn't move much in May as prices hit a new record and mortgage rates remain high. - Many reasons - but no place to go, high rates and high prices - IF more inventory comes on the market - possibly prices will come down (Last month inventories jumped 6.7%) - Median price of a home sold in May was $419,300 More Homes - Sales of homes priced below $250,000 were lower than a year ago, while sales priced between $250,000 and $500,000 were up just 1%. Sales priced between $750,000 and $1 million were 13% higher, and sales priced over $1 million were up nearly 23%. - Cash is still king, accounting for 28% of sales. - First-time buyers are hanging in at 31% of sales, up from 28% the year before. MORE HOUSING - April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 7.2% vs. 6.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 7.5% from 7.4% ERC Credit DENIED - The IRS will deny billions of dollars' worth of claims for a pandemic-era tax break while working to process lower-risk filings, the agency said on Thursday afternoon. - These are what you heard on commercials for a while... - After investigating more than 1 million claims worth roughly $86 billion, the IRS said in the release that it identified 10% to 20% of the highest-risk filings, and "tens of thousands" will be rejected in the coming weeks, according to the agency. Another 60% to 70% of claims with an "unacceptable level of risk" will be further examined, the IRS said. - During the ERC review period, the agency processed 28,000 claims received before September 2023 worth $2.2 billion and disallowed more than 14,000 claims worth $1 billion, according to the release. TESLA - Headcount reduction continues - 14% of workforce has been slashed this year -- The latest figure is not from precise payroll data, but from the number of people who are on Tesla's "everybody" email distribution list as of June 17 - Bloomberg reporting that Telsa looming for 20% total headcount cut in 2023 to benefit profitability after company reached inefficiency levels of 25% -30% Musk - Need to know - How many children did Elon father? Banks - Fed Stress Tests on Wednesday (all should pass) - U.S. bank regulators said four major banks had shortcomings in their "...

Apple AI - Disappoints (or confuses) NVDA - passes AAPL market cap Treasury yields moving within a range Beanstalk - what is that story again? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter NO SHOW NET WEEK - OUT ON BIZ FOR A FEW DAYS Warm Up - Apple AI - Disappoints (or confuses) - for a minute - NVDA - passes AAPL market cap - Treasury yields moving within a range - Beanstalk - what is that story again? - Fed in play Market Update - Large Caps dominate June (thus far) - Small-caps out of favor - Buyers are hungry - any dip is bought - Economic confusion - Jobs report - NVDA - 10:1 completed (now what?) Apple WWDC - Pins and Needles - Features will go beyond artificial intelligence to personal intelligence. - Will protect privacy at every step. Capabilities: - Will enable iPhone to create language and images.Language understanding will be natural. - New writing tools can summarize text when you are working on a blog post. - Users can create new emojis for conversation. - Images can be created in three styles. Actions: - Will allow hundreds of "actions" such as "show me my photos from last week" or "show me the podcast my mom wanted me to listen to last week." - Apple Intelligence is powered by large language models. - Introduces Apple Private Cloud with personalized AI. - Siri will be able to take AI enabled actions. It will allow for more natural language. ---- Market not impressed - was hoping for BIG AI announcement from Apple. ------ Stock down on this news - then POPS to ATH on Tuesday Elon on Apple AI - Elon Musk said he would ban Apple Inc. devices from his companies if OpenAI’s software is integrated into the products at the operating system level. - The remarks followed a presentation Monday by Apple Inc., when it said that customers would have access to OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot through the Siri digital assistant. Apple plans to roll out the capabilities as part of a suite of new AI features later this year. Jobs report - May nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 (Briefing.com consensus 185,000). - The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 249,000 from 237,000. - April nonfarm payrolls revised to 165,000 from 175,000. March nonfarm payrolls revised to 310,000 from 315,000. - May average hourly earnings were up 0.4% - Unemployment rate moved up to 4% --- YET - still HOPE for 1-2 rate cuts this year OOPS - Toyota - company has lost %15B market cap after false data found - Japan's transport ministry found false data used to certify certain models a week ago on Monday. - Other companies too - Toyota, Mazda, Suzuki, Yamaha -- Companies falsifying data used in safety tests. - Toyota chairman: "tested using methods that differ from the standards defined by the national authorities." --- Collusion???? Gold - Short Supply? - According to the World Gold Council - Gold hard to find - New gold deposits are becoming harder to find around the world as many prospective areas have already been explored - Gold Strategist: "I think the overwhelming story there is: after 10 years of rapid growth from around 2008, the mining industry is struggling to report sustained growth in production," said Reade. - Bottom Line: "It's getting harder to find gold, permit it, finance it, and operate it," Game-Stop Already - Shares tank 40% after another big run up - Keith Gill live stream - Continues to post cryptic messages now that he is back - Must be bored Panic Buttons - Retail giant Walmart says it is against putting panic buttons in stores - a move that the New York legislature wants to require under a new law aimed at keeping retail workers safe.

Sinkholes forming Memes again - Huge Moves Economy starting to stall Face Ripper moves into the close PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Sinkholes forming - Memes again - Huge Moves - Economy starting to stall - Announcing a NEW CTP Market Update - Face Ripping - Last Friday - Software Stocks hammered - May finished in the green nicely - Oil Drooping - Roaring Kitty is back Face Rip - Stocks ramped on the last day of the month - 300 points in 10 minutes to finish the day on Friday - markets had a good month - -- Large Cap Growth up 6% for the month - US real estate up 5% - Only area LataAm down for May Sinkhole Forming Again - MEGA Caps pulling market up - Primarily NVDA - Monday S&P 500 Flat - S&P Equal Weight -0.53% Best Buy Earnings - "Sluggish Demand" - Earnings per share: $1.20 vs. $1.08 expected Revenue: $8.85 billion vs. $8.96 billion expected - Best Buy has noticed a pullback in purchases of discretionary items as consumers manage higher costs because of inflation. - Shares soar Software stocks Soft - Salesforce plunges 20% after it posted weaker than expected revenue - The WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund, an exchange-traded fund that tracks cloud stocks, slid 5% this week, the sharpest decline since January. Paycom, GitLab, Confluent, Snowflake and ServiceNow all lost at least 10% of their value in the downdraft. - Dell PLUNGED - 20% too this week Economics - April Construction Spending -0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior -0.2% - May ISM Manufacturing Index 48.7 vs 49.6 Briefing.com consensus; prior 49.2 - May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final 51.3 vs 50.9 prelim; prior 50.0 Focus on Manufacturing (Briefing.com) - The May ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 48.7% (consensus 49.6%), down from 49.2% in April. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the May reading suggests there was a faster pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector last month. - The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a faster pace of contraction in manufacturing activity that will stir worries about the economy missing its mark with a soft landing. - The New Orders Index slumped to 45.4% from 49.1%, hitting its lowest level since May 2023. - The Prices Index dropped to 57.0% from 60.9%. - The Employment Index increased to 51.1% from 48.6%. - The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 42.4% from 45.4%. - The Supplier Deliveries Index held steady at 48.9%. - The Production Index decreased to 50.2% from 51.3%. - The New Export Orders Index rose to 50.6% from 48.7%. Fed Cuts - Not Happening - According to the latest issues of Barrons - "The Federal Reserve isn’t likely to lower interest rates in 2024. Elevated inflation, a resilient economy, and a still-strong, if softening labor market argue against the need for easing monetary policy, especially as these conditions are expected to persist through year end." WAIT A MINUTE - Rate cut bets for September are back a 66% probability after a slightly weaker than expected JOLTS report - 10YR Yields @ 4.35% (Down from 4.6% last week) GDPNow - Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q2 real GDP growth is 1.8%, down from 2.7% on May 31 - Latest downward revision follows today's release of the ISM Manufacturing Index for May and Construction Spending Report for April. As Usual - Backwards - OPEC+ prolongs cuts for one year - OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S. production.

Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes Cruise anyone? Global Warming - New Info In PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM - The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes - Cruise anyone? - Global Warming - New Info In Market Update - 40,000 ! Then we fail - Fed Officials Hawkish behind closed doors - BBQFlation - Split Excitement! - Hindenburg Omen Fed - Two Faced - Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions. - Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease. - The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024. BBQFlation - Your Memorial Day barbecue will cost upward of 10 percent more than it did this time last year according to Datasembly - Datasembly follows the cost of groceries across the country every week. Its recently released data points to this year's Memorial Day festivities costing the average American family about $30.18 or 10.19% more than 2023. - Burgers jumped from $7.04 in 2023 to $8.07 in 2024, or a change of 14.63% in cost. Hamburger buns cost two cents more, from $3.04 on average to $3.06. Hindenburg Omen - Indicator was triggered last week. - only right about 25% of the time - Was thought to be able to predict market crashes - let's see what happens. FED HEAD - The Federal Reserve should wait for significant progress on inflation before cutting interest rates, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday. - Asked what conditions were needed for the Fed to cut rates once or twice this year, Kashkari said: “Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it’s appropriate to dial back.” - He said the central bank could potentially even hike rates if inflation fails to come down further. “I don’t think we should rule anything out at this point,” Kashkari added. Could we finally get relief from these thieves? - The U.S. Department of Justice is suing to break up Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, over alleged antitrust violations. - The lawsuit, joined by 30 states and filed Thursday, follows a DOJ investigation into whether Live Nation maintains a monopoly in the ticketing industry, a probe launched in 2022 and bolstered by fan complaints following a botched roll out for tickets to Taylor Swift's Eras tour. - In a statement, Live Nation said the DOJ's allegations of a monopoly are "absurd." - "The DOJ's complaint attempts to portray Live Nation and Ticketmaster as the cause of fan frustration with the live entertainment industry. It blames concert promoters and ticketing companies—neither of which control ticket prices—for high ticket prices. It ignores everything that is actually responsible for higher ticket prices, from increasing production costs to artist popularity, to 24/7 online ticket scalping that reveals the public's willingness to pay far more than primary tickets cost," said Dan Wall, Live Nation executive vice president for corporate and regulatory affairs. DONATIONS- New Shirt Design? Miracle Flights - The 1986 Air Carrier Access Act requires airlines to provide a wheelchair to passengers with disabilities at the airport. The problem: Many travelers are faking it,

Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday Oil Unusually stable Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident? Meme stocks come back to earth PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday - Oil Unusually stable - Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident? - Meme stocks come back to earth - We have an Osbourne Effect Market Update - 40,000 ! Get the party hats! - ATH, ATH, ATH - Commods - Copper and Gold (AND silver) - VIX - lowest since 2019 - Someone better against Tesla (Big name) Banks - The Federal Reserve and two other U.S. regulators are moving toward a new plan that would significantly reduce a nearly 20% mandated increase in capital for the country's biggest banks following lobbying efforts by industry CEOs like JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend. - Required increases in capital for banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs meant to ensure they have sufficient buffers to absorb potential losses — would on average be about as much as originally floated, the Journal added. - Top officials from all three agencies involved in the pending capital rules — the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — are still discussing substantive and technical revisions and there is no guarantee that an agreement will be reached, the WSJ reported. Goodbye? - In a response to a question Monday about the bank's succession planning, Dimon indicated that his expected tenure is less than five more years - That's a key change from Dimon's previous responses to succession questions, in which his standard answer had been that retirement was perpetually five years away. - Stock dropped 4% on that conversation No Direction - Grasping .... - Snap Inc. Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel said he’s investing more aggressively in bringing artificial intelligence and machine learning to Snapchat to make it more interesting for its users, the next major shift after years spent overhauling its advertising business. - “There was a recognition that we’d fallen behind the curve on the machine learning side, which, to some degree, was reflected in the business performance,” Spiegel said in an interview. “We needed to improve there and bring together some of our most senior machine learning folks to just talk about what it would look like for us to get to state of the art and really invest.” Meanwhile - VIX is sagging - The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, closed Friday at the lowest level since November 2019 as the benchmark stock index traded in a tight range just below the all-time high. - Aside from an April pop, the VIX has been muted for much of 2024 as shares climbed. VIX Chart Interesting - Online home goods retailer Wayfair is opening its first namesake store, near Chicago, following a string of other digitally native companies that have turned to brick-and-mortar for growth. - So they think the low cost failed execution is going to do better in the higher cost brick and mortar arena? - The company says people need to still sit in and try furniture.... (WHAT?) AI - Here we go - OpenAI has disbanded its team focused on the long-term risks of artificial intelligence just one year after the company announced the group, a source familiar with the situation confirmed to CNBC on Friday. - News of Sutskever's and Leike's departures, and the dissolution of the superalignment team, come days after OpenAI launched a new AI model and desktop version of ChatGPT, along with an updated user interface,

Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation PPI HOT - Market does not care A Meme stock face ripper! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Inflation reports PPI today and CPI tomorrow - Sentiment is dropping - wondering why - Meme stock face ripper - EV days - losses not acceptable - PPI and CPI this week Market Update - Another good week - seems like coming out of downturn - Rates down- 10Y Treas falling over past week - S&P 500 near record - Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation - PPI HOT - Market does not care Fed talk - Fed's Goolsbee and Kashkari - There has been cross currents in the data. - There has been some bumps in the road on inflation in 2024. - The Fed is in a wait and see mode - Cautious about how restrictive policy is. - More data is needed before they can predict a rate cut. - There is a high bar for another rate hike, but not ruling it out. - Leases trending up is a concerning signal. ----- What does any of that tell us? ------ We need to start a movement to SHUT THE FED UP (STFU) Latest Inflation Readings - The Producer Price index for final demand increased 0.5% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March. The index for final demand, excluding food and energy, also increased 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March. - On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 2.2%, marking the largest increase since April 2023, while the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, was up 2.4%, unchanged from March. - The key takeaway from the report is that nearly three quarters of the increase in final demand prices was due to a 0.6% increase in the index for final demand services, something that will detract from the Fed's confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to its 2% target. Powell speaking AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says he doesn't think next rate move will be a hike, more likely a hold; time will tell if policy is sufficiently restrictive; PPI reading was quite mixed Getting AI Overload - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says "not gpt-5, not a search engine, but we’ve been hard at work on some new stuff we think people will love! feels like magic to me" Sentiment - Consumer sentiment fell sharply in May to the lowest level in six months as Americans cited concerns about stubbornly high inflation and interest rates and fears that unemployment could rise - May Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 67.4 vs 76.5 Briefing.com consensus; April Final was 77.2 Fed Put - Markets melting up since last Powell comments - There is a new spin on the old "Fed put." The latter rested on an unspoken assurance that the Fed would step in with easier policy to forestall a market meltdown. - The new version doesn't guarantee a rate cut soon, but it has created an unspoken assurance that market participants can trade around the idea that the next monetary policy move is likely to be a rate cut. Meme Stocks - Gamestock was up 80% and many of the other names moving hard --- Seems like the original Gamestock dude - Roaring Kitty put out a tweet on Monday and the stock went bananas... More Squeeze - Shares of the vaccine maker soared 99% Friday, after the company signed a $1.2 billion licensing agreement with Sanofi that includes commercializing a combined Covid-19 and flu shot. - The move boosts a stock that had plunged about 99% — prior to the deal — from its 2021 peak amid waning demand for its Covid vaccine.

Earnings season - better and stats - BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER - We are gauging investor sentiment --- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Earnings season - better and stats - BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER - We are gauging investor sentiment -- --- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps) - Announcing the WINNER CTP for Apple - Fake Work? Market Update - If down - buy.... Names that were hammered due to earnings catching bids again - Follow up - Utilities - Fed Speaks - Can't stop the Dove - Employment - Excitement about the Unemployment Rate Earnings Season Update: - Overall, 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2024 to date. - Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 74%. - In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 7.5% above estimates, which is also below the 5-year average of 8.5% but above the 10-year average of 6.7% - Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Communication Services, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors. - Three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings: Energy, Health Care, and Materials. - Revenue - up again - estimated to be 4.1% when all said and done. - - If 4.1% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index. Fake Work - An investor at famed Silicon Valley firm Andreessen Horowitz is the latest VC to get involved in the debate around "fake work" in the tech industry. - Ulevitch went on to point the finger at Google specifically, calling it "an amazing example." - "I don't think it's crazy to believe that half the white-collar staff at Google probably does no real work," he said. "The company has spent billions and billions of dollars per year on projects that go nowhere for over a decade, and all that money could have been returned to shareholders who have retirement accounts." - Marc Andreessen has criticized a managerial "laptop class" and tweeted in 2022, "The good big companies are overstaffed by 2x. The bad big companies are overstaffed by 4x or more." Buy 'em - Companies that took a hit after earnings (NFLX, AMD) getting bid again - NFLX gapped lower from ~$608 to $551 and now $592 - AMD dropped from $160 to $140 and now $156 - SPY , IWM and QQQ- Now above the 50day Moving average again Follow Up - Utilities - Just wanted to provide this idea again - Data Warehouses and other AI Power hungry places --- Symbol list of some utilities to look at further - SO, NEE, EXC, CMS - Natural gas producers are planning for a significant spike in demand over the next decade, as artificial intelligence drives a surge in electricity consumption that renewables may struggle to meet alone. - After a decade of flat power growth in the U.S., electricity demand is forecast to grow as much as 20% by 2030, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published in April. Power companies are moving to quickly secure energy as the rise of AI coincides with the expansion of domestic semiconductor and battery manufacturing as well as the electrification of the nation's vehicle fleet. - AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030 Utilities ETF Apple - Earnings - Nothing great in the earnings. --- A few pockets of sunshine.... --- Raises dividend and $110 BILLION buyback - largest buyback EVER ...

Earnings season winners and losers. Episode 700 - been a great run - plenty more to come. New airline regulations and what that means to all of us. Inflation - its not over just yet. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Show #700 - Guess the date of EPISODE #1 (Show # 1 was Sep 16, 2008) - - No Agenda episode #1 - October 26, 2007 --- The Disciplined Investor Podcast show #1 - Mar 02, 2007 - ALL economic series showing signs of inflation - The great money in God - Top Wealthiest Pastors - Fiducuary rules fo Retirment Plans Market Update - Shaking off some and smacking others - earnings season underway - April not a great month for US equities - April now in the books - Earnings seasons - winners and losers - Yields on I Bonds Updated - European stocks end April down 1.49%, posting first negative month since October Derivative AI Investing - Secondary play - Utilities - We spoke of the huge demand for electricity/power from any source to power datacenters - Investors looking for a unique way into the stock market’s artificial intelligence boom are finding an intriguing bank shot in what’s traditionally the most boring corner of the equities universe: utilities. - Southern Company, NextEra, Excelon, CMS Energy also Eaton, Hubbell -- Bad couple years as this is an interest sensitive sector - but massive consumption increase coming Bird Flu in Milk - The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed milking cows in Colorado tested positive for Bird Flu, following earlier infections in Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Idaho, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Dakota. - Additional tests of milk showed that pasteurization killed the bird flu virus, federal health officials said on Friday, as Colorado became the ninth U.S. state to report an infected dairy herd. - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) late on Friday said preliminary results from gold-standard PCR testing showed pasteurization killed the virus in milk and baby formula. It did not say how many milk products it had tested but added that it plans to do more testing on 297 products from 38 states. Good Money in God - Most Wealth Pastors - Benny Hinn, 71 Estimated net worth: US$60 million Joel Osteen, 61 Estimated net worth: US$100 million - Kenneth Copeland, 87 Estimated net worth: US$300 million Apple Headset and More - Earnings coming May 2 - Big slowdown in sales in China has been widely telegraphed - Not much excitement about the product line or any innovation at this point - AI is going to be conversation they will start to help push shares - Apple slashes Vision Pro production, cancels 2025 model in response to plummeting demand -- Analysts are cutting their sales for the Vision Pro in HALF! - - Apple may decide not to release a new model in 2025 - was expecting a cheaper version possibly Back to Inflation - Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated. - The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus. - Consumers showed they are still spending despite the elevated price level. Personal spending rose 0.8% on the month, a touch higher even than the 0.7% estimate. Personal income increased 0.5%, in line with expectations and higher than the 0.3% increase in February. - GDP Report showed more pricing pressures - Overall, 100% of recent reports showed that the inflation monste...

Markets having a tough time and a big week of data is coming. Got the 5% correction - is there more? M&A - Another deal dies PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATE - Show 700 Campaign Warm Up - Markets having a tough time - Happy Passover! - SHOW 700 coming up! - Happy belated 420 Day to our fine smoky listeners - Jumping to Conclusions - We have a limerick! Market Update - Big week(s) coming for economics - Got the 5% correction - is there more? - M&A - Another deal dies - Earnings - Tech on deck - Historic Treasury Auction this week - need to pay the bills since tax receipts not doing it and lots of debt outstanding Who Would think??? - UK - FTSE 100 at all-time high! Recap: - Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Tesla Inc., all of which are among the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech giants, will report THIS WEEK week. - Technology stocks are selling off, with the Nasdaq 100 Index registering its biggest weekly drop since November 2022 in the midst of a four-week losing streak, its longest since December 2022. - Even AI darling Nvidia Corp. is getting hit, plunging 10% on Friday and wiping out $212 billion in market value for its worst day since the Covid pandemic in March 2020. MAG7 Profit Outlook - But hope is on the horizon. Profits for the Mag Seven — which also includes Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Nvidia — are forecast to rise 38% in the first quarter from a year ago, dwarfing the overall S&P 500’s 2.4% anticipated year-over-year earnings growth, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. - Around 178 S&P 500 companies — representing more than 40% of the index’s market capitalization — will post results next week. But the biggest expectations are for megacap tech firms. = = Nvidia, which Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk dubbed “the most important stock on planet Earth,” doesn’t report its earnings for another month. Tesla - Stock down a lot - DOWN 43% YTD - Down 65% from high set November 2021 - Tesla is recalling nearly 3,900 of its Cybertrucks due to an issue with the vehicle's accelerator pedal. - The recall, announced Wednesday, was prompted by accelerator pedal pads in the trucks that "may dislodge and cause the pedal to become trapped by the interior trim," - All of the 3,878 of the 2024 Cybertrucks that Tesla built between Nov. 13 and April 4 are subject to the recall, the electric vehicle maker’s safety recall report said. - And then: Tesla on Saturday slashed the price of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver assistant software to $8,000 from $12,000 in the United States, as CEO Elon Musk reaffirms his commitment to self-driving technology. - Musk is betting the technology will become a major source of revenue for the world's most valuable automaker. But he has for years failed to achieve the goal of self-driving capability, with the technology under growing regulatory and legal scrutiny. ----- Could be a short squeeze setting up for earnings (Tonight) - READ MORE>>>>> Tesla Earnings - Tesla misses by $0.04, misses on revs, gross margin down 199 bps yr/yr, reiterates that in 2024, vehicle volume may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023 - Total GAAP gross margin of 17.4%, down 199 bps yr/yr. - Operating expenses up 37% yr/yr to $2.53 bln. - Total Deliveries down 9% to 386,810. - Outlook: Co states, "Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform.

Risk - happens fast! Costco Selling ALOT of Gold April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals Rates spike, oil moves lower PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Risk Happens FAST - Costco Selling ALOT of Gold - April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals - Fewer students attending 2 0r 4-year college Market Update - Banks reporting - mixed results - Rates UP! - Earnings Season - Risk off - Missiles Flying --- WAR escalations concerning investors Rates - Rates spiked with all of the recent concern that the Fed will not be cutting rates so fast - Came on on the Iran retaliation worries - Spike Monday to 4.64% for the 10Yr - starting to get worrisome that could be technical move and disrupt markets Rates in Europe - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term, subject to any major shocks. - "We just need to build a bit more confidence in this disinflationary process but if it moves according to our expectations, if we don't have a major shock in development, we are heading towards a moment where we have to moderate the restrictive monetary policy," Lagarde said. --- Also noted that she is very attentive to the price of oil HA! If you don't like the numbers... - The Bank of England on Friday announced a “once in a generation” overhaul of its inflation forecasting following a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. - The review was initiated in response to criticism over shortcomings in the bank’s recent policymaking. - It sets out 12 recommendations — including scrapping the bank’s “fan chart” forecasting system — which BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank was committed to implementing. Inflation Spots Sticker Shock And then at 1:30PM Tuesday - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Canadian forum says recent data shows lack of progress on returning to 2% inflation goal; says US economic performance has been quite strong. - Markets were not pleased - ---- Begs the question: - what is the point of this at a time with such global stress having these types of comments? ---- WSJ's Nick Timiraos says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell "dialed back" rate reduction expectations at Canadian forum amid new inflation uncertainty Safe-haven? - Bitcoin and other cryptos PLUNGE when Iran sent misses and drones - How is that digital gold or store of value? - Simply trades like a speculative risk asset and starting to hear that phrase quite a lot. - Tried to rally on Sunday when Iran said that is all they are doing- but sold off again Monday Earnings This Week - Plenty of banks and financials (BAC, GS etc) also Netflix Thursday after the close - Proctor and Gamble on Friday - Problem is that they come right as risk elevated. Goldman Sachs Earnings - Goldman Sachs on Monday posted first-quarter profit and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by a surge in trading and investment banking revenue. - The bank said profit jumped 28% to $4.13 billion, or $11.58 per share, from the year earlier period, thanks to a rebound in capital markets activities - Goldman shares climbed more than 4% in the days trading Monday. JPM Earnings - The bank said first-quarter profit rose 6% to $13.42 billion, or $4.44 per share, from a year earlier, boosted by its takeover last year of First Republic during the regional banking crisis. - But in guidance for 2024, the bank said it expected net interest income of around $90 billion, which is essentially unchanged from its previous forecast. - That appeared to disappoint investors, some of whom expected JPMorgan to raise its guidance by $2 billion ...

A WINNER - CTP for Rumble A new CTP to announce! Club 72 Thank You Solar Eclipse PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A WINNER - CTP for Rumble - A new CTP to announce! - Club 72 - Solar Eclipse Market Update - Boeing issues continue - Oil market on fire - Yellen - talking tariffs again - Kashkari and others on cuts - Earnings season starts this week Lucky CLUB 72 Jonathan Farris Mark Studebaker William Palmer Susan Erickson Terrence Cleary Anonymous (2) Fed Walking All Back - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that at the U.S. central bank's meeting last month he penciled in two interest rate cuts this year but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year end. - "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said during an interview with Pensions & Investments. "There's a lot of momentum in the economy right now." Walking Forward - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it's possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting. - "While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse," Who is the best? -If you were wondering about the track record of the Fed Chair's performance over time, it's worth delving into the historical data. - Overall, the track record of Fed Chairs over time reflects the challenges and complexities of managing monetary policy in a dynamic and ever-changing economic environment. Each Chair has faced unique circumstances and challenges during their tenure, and their actions have had far-reaching implications for financial markets and the economy as a whole. Whispers - Hearing that the car business - used and new having one of the worst years on record (from selective car salespeople) - Same as above on lower end boat business (sales) - U.S. small-business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than 11 years in March amid rising concerns about inflation, according to a survey on Tuesday. - The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 point to 88.5 last month, the lowest level since December 2012. It was the 27th straight month the index was below the 50-year average of 98. - - Twenty-five percent of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, reflecting higher input and labor costs, up 2 points from February. The share of businesses raising average selling prices rose 7 points from the prior month. Inflation Data and ECO - CPI and PPI this week - CPI expectations are 0.4% MoM for March --- Many are sahing that this is a clean month without odd seasonal factors - so something to watch - - 10 Yr at 4.378% ----------- FOMC minutes at 2:00 Wednesday -- Last week - Employment situation continues to be strong - 3.8% Unemployment rate 300k added to payrolls (Wage growth was okay) Earnings Season - Banks in Focus - Banks are expected to see some decline in earnings over the period - Focus on net interest margin as well as credit deterioration (and days outstanding) - However, YoY - earnings growth for some look pretty good - - - - Property & Casualty Insurance (87%), Reinsurance (62%), Life & Health Insurance (12%), and Multi-line Insurance (12%). REMOTE WORK on the sea

All of a sudden - mood swing The bloom is off the Rate-Cut-Rose Leaking Data - Another breach More AI - lots of $$ committed to this... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - All of a sudden - mood swing - Bloom is off the Rate Cut Rose - Leaking Data - Another breach - More AI - lots of $$ committed to this... Market Update - Oil prices moving through key resistance - Apple back to Oct 2023 support -watch out below? - Gold/Silver Soaring - into higher rates and higher USD??? - Oil on the rise CTP for Rumble Update - Marcus G - In the top spot right now.... - - Thatch House dude HCD: Donations - Need a new Shirt Prize and Design - Plus Contracted Devs prices inflation. Analyzing Apple's Chart - Key levels of support - Down-trend Apple Chart Powell on Good Friday - PCE report (on day the markets are closed for Good Friday) -- Showed 2.8% YoY and 0.3% MoM - Powell tried to talk down market expectations for rate cuts like several other recent speakers - - Market still hoping for MAYBE 3 - but it looks like June is off the table. Stronger Economy than Thought - ISM comes in above 50 for the first time in nearly 18 months - Economic strength + good employment + Inflation = Rate CUT????? - Market is finally getting the hint --- 10-Yr rate spiked to 4.38% today ISM Chart Global Economic Trends - China finally saw its manufacturing number gain some traction last month --- China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, with business confidence hitting an 11-month high, driven by growing new orders from customers at home and abroad, a private survey showed on Monday. - South Korea - Sticky inflation (Consumer prices advanced 3.1% in March from a year earlier) USA Strong Commodities on the rise - Cocoa futures for May delivery were up 3.9% at $10,030 per metric ton, marking the first time the commodity breaks above the $10,000 mark. Cocoa has been on a tear this year, soaring nearly 39%. - Ivory Coast, the biggest coca producer in the world, is facing hotter-than-normal temperatures — which have led to dryer-than-usual conditions and crop yields. TSLA - Q1 deliveries declined by 8.5% yr/yr to 433,000, representing TSLA's first yr/yr decline since the pandemic-impacted year of 2020. Importantly, that decrease is partly due to extraordinary events that were out of TSLA's control. -- Berlin fire factory shutdown, Red Sea passage issues etch. - Competition in China is really heating up and cost of EVs from many Chinese manufacturers are much lower. M&A - Amazon - Amazon.com Inc. says it’s investing an additional $2.75 billion into Anthropic, an artificial intelligence startup. - The infusion brings Amazon’s total investment in the company, a well-regarded builder of so-called generative AI tools able to generate text and analysis, to $4 billion, following an earlier investment announced in September. - As part of that deal, Amazon had the right to contribute the additional funds in the form of a convertible note, provided it did so before the end of March. AI NEWS - Microsoft and OpenAI are in discussions regarding Stargate, a new AI super-computer data center project to be headquartered in the U.S. may cost over $115 billion and is planned for launch in 2028. - $$$$$$115 BILLION - That is like 115,000 $1,000,000 homes.... - Stargate’s power requirements, estimated to be several gigawatts (5) may require Microsoft and OpenAI to explore alternative power sources, like nuclear power. Enough to power 3,750,000 for a year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ----- Hoover Dam X2 Meanwhile - Microsoft will sell its chat and video app Teams s...

Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday. Reddit IPO Frenzy! Inflation - definitely not going away. Announcing - A New Closest to The Pin PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A New CTP Announced - No Show Next week - business meetings out of town - A not so surprising result in the Russian Elections - An important change to stock trade settlements is coming Market Update - Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday - Reddit IPO Frenzy - Inflation - definitely not going away - AI Frenzy - Culd Call This DHAI Unplugged - so much AI news to discuss - Yield Frenzy PPI Release - After a HOT CPI, PPI Comes in Hotter - 0.6% on the core - but only 1.6% YoY - The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February. - Prices for final demand goods advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent. - Prices for final demand advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February. - Markets didn't know what to do with this on Friday. PPI MoM Company Stats - Recession? - According to FactSet: During Dec-March earnings calls, 47 cited the term “recession” during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter. -- This number is below the 5-year average of 85 and below the 10-year average of 61. - This quarter will mark the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls for a quarter since Q4 2021 Companies Citing Recession % of Companies Reddit - IPO slated to be live sometime this week (March 21) - 5X Oversubscribed - Reddit began sending invitations to users to participate in the IPO based on one of two measurements of engagement on the site: either the number of actions they’ve taken as a moderator of a forum on the platform (also known as a “subreddit”) or their “karma” score, a figure that indicates a user’s contributions and reputation among other users on the site. - Reddit plans to list 22 million shares at a price between $31 and $34, according to the latest version of the IPO prospectus it filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company stands to take in between $473.6 million and $519.4 million from the sale of roughly 15.3 million shares. - Valuation > $6 billion - Question???? Is Reddit profitable? NO - However, the company has been substantially growing revenue in the past few years. ---- Reddit's total revenue in 2023 was $804 million, up 21% from $666 million in 2022. ----- Reddit's net loss for 2023 narrowed to $90.8 million. Yields - 10 YR - Highest level of 2024 - technically breaking out - if Fed moves a bot more hawkish - 4.50% is next test Yields Japan Yields - The Bank of Japan is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in 17 years on Tuesday following its two-day monetary policy meeting, Kyodo reported. - The BOJ will raise the short-term rate to the 0%-0.1% range, the report said. The development reflects growing confidence among policymakers that a virtuous cycle of wage growth and price hikes is in motion following this year’s labor-management pay negotiations - RAISING TO ZERO! Global Rates - Who Will CUT First? First Mover? ELON - Increasing prices on Model Y by $1,000 --- Stock moves up by 6% - Goldman Downgrades - Perhaps this is why stock moved up - another bug downgrade - stock in the toilet - nowhere else to go --- SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies. Elon - Ketamine

Volatility is back and Bitcoin mania is here again. Need a new CTP Stock! China stocks on a run... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Volatility is back - Bitcoin mania - Need a new CTP Stock! - LSD - making an interesting comeback Market Update - NVDA had 2 down days! - Markets still want to go higher - not matter what the data - Yields move up with CPI - Big rebound for NVDA - not letting it go down too much... CPI Release - Total CPI increased by 0.4% month-over-month, meeting expectations, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.4% month-over-month (0.3%). - On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, compared to 3.1% in January, and core CPI increased by 3.8%, versus 3.9% in January. - Excluding shelter, CPI rose by a more modest 1.8% year-over-year. - Despite the headline disappointment for core CPI, the market seems optimistic about the future, anticipating a reduction in the isolated impact of the shelter index in the coming months due to an expected moderation in rent prices. (in other words, thinking the Fed's PCE will not be so hot next time and the Fed will still cut sometime this year) CPI Report key takeaways: - The food index showed no change month-over-month and increased by 2.2% year-over-year. - The energy index rose by 2.3% month-over-month and declined by 1.9% year-over-year. - Used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month and a 1.8% decrease year-over-year. - The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and unchanged year-over-year. - The all items index, excluding food, shelter, and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year. Inflation - YoY Inflation - ACTUAL Layoffs - Does not fit the narrative - Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since the global financial crisis, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. - The total of 84,638 planned cuts showed an increase of 3% from January and 9% from the same month a year ago, with technology and finance companies at the forefront. - From a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,350 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end. - Here is where it gets interesting: The layoff numbers, however, are not feeding through to weekly jobless claims, suggesting that unemployment is short-lived and workers are able to find new positions. Powell - On one hand he stated that the Fed is watching and not ready yet to cut rates - data dependent - A couple days later he indicated that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate. - In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the central bank leader didn't provide a precise timetable of when he sees easing happening, but noted that the day could be coming soon. Mnuchin to the Rescue? -NYCB had bad month - and got worse - Lost 7% of deposits - Bond rating cut - Investment firm lead by Steve Mnuchin swooped in with a cool $1 billion rescue package - Remember NYCD bought Signature Bank - obviously so much crap in that portfolio it helped poison NYCB Oracle Earnings - New ATH - Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $1.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 7.1% year/year to $13.28 bln vs the $13.29 bln FactSet Consensus. - Q3 Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to $80 billion. - Q3 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $5.1 billion, up 25% in USD, up 24% in constant currency. - Q3 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.8 billion, up 49% in both USD and constant currency.

All sorts of good stuff in this episode. Some good laughs and fun throughout the year. Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together! DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Follow Ryan on Twitter

TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed! Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising Year of Pharma? To The Moon - Crypto Style Valuations getting frothy? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Pays to Follow Pelosi! - Landing on the Moon - then falling over - Japan - something not kosher - New See-through laptop screens Market Update - TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed! - Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising - Year of Pharma? - To The Moon - Crypto Style - Valuations getting frothy Froth-a-Bubble- Icous? - There is some concern at Apollo regarding a bubble in S&P 500 - The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the tech bubble in the mid-1990s, see chart below. - Different makeup back in 1999 - but still of interest asa the S&P500 reaches levels (P/E) at the high end of the ranges. - SEE LINK Smart Money? - Hedge funds piled into tech stocks in the weeks before Nvidia Corp. earnings. Now, they’re cashing out and selling at the fastest pace in seven months. - Professional managers offloaded their positions for four straight sessions last week, including Thursday, the day after Nvidia posted results, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime-brokerage unit. The intensity of the selling ranks in the 98th - he data suggests traders are booking profits on their tech wagers after a six-week buying streak and putting that extra cash into less volatile stocks, such as consumer staples. - SEE LINK Nancy! - NEWS MONDAY: PANW - Palo Alto Networks shares higher by 9% after Rep. Nancy Pelosi reported Friday afternoon the purchase of 70 call options (purchases made 2/12 and 2/21) - Stock moved down 27% after earnings last week - In fairness, the purchases on 2/12 are very underwater - AH picked this for the game right after post-earnings slump Earnings - Zoom - Zoom shares rose as much as 13% in extended trading on Monday after the video chat software vendor announced fiscal fourth-quarter results that topped analysts' expectations. - Here's how the company did, compared with consensus among analysts polled by LSEG: - -- - Earnings per share: $1.22, adjusted vs. $1.15 expected - - - -Revenue: $1.15 billion vs. $1.13 billion expected Disney -Walt Disneyshareholder Blackwells Capital is calling for it to come up with an artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, saying that this could lift the U.S. media and entertainment conglomerate's stock price by as much as 129%. Blackwells is one of two activist investors pushing for board seats What Goes Up... - Intuitive Machines Inc. shares sink Monday, after the spacecraft company said its lander, which successfully touched down on the moon last week, likely landed on its side. - The landing was touted as the first by a private-sector company to reach the moon intact, as well as the first US spacecraft to reach the moon’s surface since 1972. - In a Monday update, the company wrote that “flight controllers intend to collect data until the lander’s solar panels are no longer exposed to light,” and that “based on Earth and Moon positioning, we believe flight controllers will continue to communicate with Odysseus until Tuesday morning.” - Stock down 33% on this news Japan - Markets at new highs - Yen weak weak weak - Government keeps ultra-loose monetary policy - Recession official - Something is not right over there More Japan - Federal prosecutors in New York on Wednesday said they had charged a Japanese Yakuza leader with conspiring to traffic nuclear materials from Burma to other countries. - Prosecutors said the accused gangster Takeshi Ebisawa "and his confederates showed sa...