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Turkey is undergoing an unprecedented naval expansion, positioning itself as one of Europe’s largest naval powers. While some neighbours are alarmed, Ankara insists the build-up is defensive and meant to meet growing regional commitments. “We must have a strong and effective navy to live in peace on our lands,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after commissioning the latest of six planned submarines. Along with a new helicopter carrier, frigates and over a dozen warships under construction, this is part of Erdogan’s push to bolster the Turkish navy. “It fits Erdogan’s political agenda of exerting influence overseas, from Qatar to Somalia to Libya,” said Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. “For the navy, it means a greater role in the defence of the country – no longer just territorial, but forward defence from overseas.” New course The change has transformed the navy’s mission. “Turkish sailors used to sail off to sea, but they would come back on the same day to their home bases and spend the night in their homes. That's no longer the case,” Guvenc says. “The Turkish navy is evolving into a major regional power.” Turkey’s military presence abroad includes bases in Qatar, Libya and Somalia, with naval agreements in place. Ankara claims its expansion addresses growing threats around the region. “When you look at the conflicts in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Red Sea, they are all around Turkey,” said Mesut Casin, a Turkish presidential adviser and professor at Yeditepe University. He also pointed to Turkey’s NATO role: “The naval modernisation benefits NATO and the security of Western allies, especially in terms of oil and navigation security.” Ankara has been quick to flex its new naval muscles. Four years ago, Turkish warships allegedly targeted a French NATO vessel enforcing an arms embargo on Libya. Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral deals Regional concerns Greece, with longstanding territorial disputes with Turkey in the Aegean and Mediterranean, has voiced particular concern. Israel, too, has raised alarms over Turkey’s naval growth, including military drones deployed in Turkish-controlled northern Cyprus. “Some of Turkey’s naval moves, like the UAV base in Northern Cyprus, could be aimed at Israel,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "This doesn't mean again there will be a direct confrontation, but it does mean that it is something that the Israeli army has to calculate for." Greece is also modernising its navy in response to what it sees as the Turkish threat. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently reaffirmed the need for a “deterrent power” against Turkey. Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks Meanwhile, Israel's growing naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, including the deployment of advanced naval assets and joint military exercises with regional partners, is adding to Turkish concerns. "The Turkish military has begun to feel concerned about the deployment of its [Israel's] nuclear missile capable submarines in the Mediterranean," said naval expert Guvenc. “As long as they were in the Red Sea or Indian Ocean, it wasn’t a problem. But once they shifted to the Mediterranean, it became a potential threat.” Guvenc is warning that escalating regional suspicions risks spiraling out of control. “It’s a vicious circle. Turkey builds a new navy to address threats, and now its neighbours feel threatened by Turkey’s naval growth. This is how arms races start, and they don’t tend to end well.” Turkish shipyards are working at full capacity to meet the country’s growing naval demands. Analysts say this will likely only deepen fears and tensions with its neighbours.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited Ankara this week, signalling the end to years of animosity with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two leaders committed themselves to a new era of cooperation – but some observers question how long it will last. The Egyptian president received a full diplomatic reception, with military bands and horses parading the Egyptian flag through the streets of the Turkish capital on Wednesday. Erdogan did not hold back in welcoming a man he once dubbed a "brutal dictator", and signalled a new era of partnership between the two countries. "With our joint declaration, we confirmed our will to advance our cooperation in all fields, including industry, trade, defence, health, environment and energy," the Turkish president declared. String of bilateral agreements The two leaders signed no fewer than 17 agreements to deepen bilateral trade, diplomatic and military cooperation. The goal is to expand their annual commercial exchanges to over €13 billion in five years, from a little over €9 billion now. They also discussed their concerns linked to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the shared desire to see a ceasefire there – part of a wider trend of converging regional interests. Sisi's visit follows Erdogan's trip to Cairo in February, which resulted from years of efforts to mend damaged relations. Ankara and Cairo cut ties in 2013 after Sisi, then defence minister, ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi – Turkey's ally and part of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Turkey and Egypt turn page on decade of friction with show of friendshipQuestion of Somaliland Despite the decade of estrangement, trade between the two countries never ceased: Turkey is Egypt's fifth-largest trading partner, while Egypt is Turkey's largest in Africa. With the Egyptian and Turkish economies in difficulty, the need to increase bilateral trade is seen as a powerful impetus towards rapprochement and a driving force for cooperation. It could also ease tension in oil-rich Libya, which has been in a state of civil war for over a decade and where Cairo and Ankara back rival governments. Libyan security analyst Aya Burweila says that Libya has become an important arena for both countries. "Because the lines in the sand are so set – and each country has its sphere of influence – this has helped both countries realise that it's much more lucrative if they cooperate rather than fight each other," she told RFI. Sisi and Erdogan also discussed tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the breakaway state of Somaliland, following reports that Egypt has started deploying weapons to Mogadishu. The deployment is part of Egypt's bitter dispute with Ethiopia over its Grand Renaissance Dam, which Cairo claims seriously threatens vital water supplies from the Nile River. Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in AfricaRivalry paused, not ended? However, analysts suggest Egypt could also be seeking to challenge Turkey's influence in Somalia – in which it has heavily invested – as well as complicating Ankara's efforts to mediate between the Somali and Ethiopian governments. Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, a professor of African studies at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, acknowledges the danger – but predicts Erdogan and Sisi will initially seek common ground. "Both Egypt and Turkey can cooperate in Somalia, especially in terms of security," she observes. "They can implement joint anti-terrorism initiatives. They can combine their efforts in development projects. They can involve themselves in political stabilisation initiatives, and so on. "But they can also compete with each other for a more significant role and influence in Somalia." For now, though, most experts seem to agree that with the spectre of a wider regional conflict and increasing economic pressures, Erdogan and Sisi are fully aware that cooperation, rather than rivalry, is in both their interests.

Turkey is stepping up its efforts to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia as tensions rise between the two Horn of Africa nations. This diplomatic initiative is part of Ankara's broader strategy to solidify its growing influence in this strategically vital region. Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan described August's second round of indirect talks in Ankara between his Ethiopian and Somali counterparts as constructive and positive. "We were able to focus on the details and technicalities of concrete steps that are important convergences on some major principles and specific modalities", Fidan said. "This constitutes notable progress." While there was no breakthrough, all sides agreed to meet again in September. Controversial deal Ethiopian-Somali tensions have escalated since January, when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia. Under the agreement, Ethiopia would secure sea access in exchange for recognising Somaliland, a deal condemned by Somalia as an infringement on its territorial integrity. "Ethiopia needs access to a coastline", said Dubai-based geopolitical consultant Norman Ricklefs. "It’s the second-largest country in Africa. It’s a booming economy. And, somehow, that deal needs to be made, but it’s not going to be easy because of the previous deal earlier this year with Somaliland." Ricklefs predicts that finding a solution will require considerable diplomatic finesse. "It’s not going to be easy to convince the Somalis to grant that [Ethiopian demands], feeling that they’re under pressure right now because of the deal that was previously done with Somaliland," he said. "But I think Turkey is probably best placed, as they have a very close relationship with both Ethiopia and Somalia." Somalia recently threatened to block access to Ethiopian Airlines in the latest bout of diplomatic tensions. Meanwhile, Egypt could reportedly deploy soldiers to Somalia, a move that threatens to further escalate and broaden tensions, given existing Ethiopian-Egyptian conflicts. Ethiopia and Somalia move closer to resolving Somaliland dispute Deepening influence The situation between Somalia and Ethiopia is expected to be discussed during Wednesday’s summit in Turkey, where Egyptian President Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are set to meet. Africa expert Elem Eyrice-Tepecikoglu from the African studies department of Ankara’s Social Sciences University said Turkey’s historical and deepening economic and military ties with both Somalia and Ethiopia give it an advantageous position in its mediating efforts. "Somalia has a very important place in Turkey’s Africa policy. Turkey has established its largest embassy in Somalia’s capital, and it also established its largest military training facility, again in Somalia," said Tepecikoglu. "But Turkey also has old and established relations with Ethiopia as well. There are several investments of Turkish companies in the country, and Turkey also signed a military cooperation agreement with Ethiopia. Reportedly, Turkish drones were used against the Tigray rebel forces." Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks Economic, military stakes Earlier this year, the Somali parliament ratified a naval agreement with Turkey to protect its territorial waters and a deal to search for hydrocarbons. Turkey is second only to China in investment in Ethiopia, including selling its military-proven drones. Analysts suggest that there is more than diplomatic prestige at stake for Ankara in resolving Ethiopian-Somali tensions, given the region’s potential and geostrategic importance as a critical world trading route. "There’s a reason why the Horn of Africa has American military bases and Chinese military bases. The Japanese even have a base in that area. All of them think the Horn of Africa is a pretty significant region for global shipping," Ricklefs said. "It’s a region that has not...

Fears are rising that Azerbaijan and Armenia are entering an arms race, which could undermine US-backed peace talks and trigger a new conflict. Azerbaijan showcased its military might in a grand parade in Baku last year to celebrate its victory in recapturing the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave from Armenian-backed forces. Azerbaijan, buoyed by its oil wealth, is continuing its aggressive rearmament programme, heavily relying on Turkey for military support. “The Turkish defence industry and Turkish military equipment will be providing further arms to protect Azerbaijan," predicts Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University.” However, Bagci noted that Azerbaijan is also turning to another ally for advanced weaponry. “Israel is much better in this respect. Azerbaijan buys the highest technology from Israel, and Israel is providing it.” Turkish and Israeli arms played a crucial role in Azerbaijan's recent military successes, overwhelming Armenian-backed forces that relied on outdated Russian equipment. Armenia's response In response to its loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia is also ramping up its military capabilities, with France leading the supply of new, sophisticated weaponry. Paris argues that this support helps Armenia shift its focus away from Russian reliance and towards Western alliances. Yerevan maintains that its rearmament is purely for self-defence. “Right now, there is no military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan," says Eric Hacopian, a political consultant in Armenia. "The goal is to create deterrents to make any aggression against Armenia more costly. In the medium term, we aim for equality, and in the long term, superiority.” Stalled peace talks The rearmament comes amid stalled peace talks, with Baku concerned that Yerevan’s military buildup might indicate ambitions to retake Nagorno Karabakh. “The truth is our territory was under occupation, so we worry that in five, 10 years, Armenia will rearm its military, strengthen military capacities, and will come back,” warned Farid Shafiyev, chairman of the Baku-based Centre of Analysis of International Relations. Yerevan maintains that its rearmament is purely for self-defence. “Right now, there is no military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The goal is to create deterrents in the short run to make any aggression against Armenia far more costly than it has been in the past,” says Eric Hacopian, a political consultant in Armenia. “Two is to create equality in the middle term and in the long term superiority. You can’t have any other goal when your country is constantly under threat, or attack is the only way to respond to it." Hacopian also notes: “The moment Armenia can defend itself, then the game is up because Ilham Aliyev is not going to risk a war that he is not guaranteed to win; Armenia rearming means he is not guaranteed to win a war which he means he won’t launch one.” However, Hacopian acknowledges that the coming year will be dangerous for the region as Yerevan seeks to close the military gap with Azerbaijan. "Next year is the year of living dangerously because next year is the last year that they can do a major aggression against Armenia without having to face the consequences because the gap is closing. Once it closes, the game will be up,” he says. Ongoing tensions Earlier this month, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces exchanged fire in a border skirmish, underscoring the ongoing tensions between the two nations. Both Baku and Yerevan insist their military enhancements are for defensive purposes. However, Bagci warns that the arms race is turning the region into a potential flashpoint. “Armenia and Azerbaijan are like two children; they play with fire, and the house is burning, and everybody is asking the big powers why the house is burning and who has done it. They have done it together,” he says. Despite their rearmament, both Armenia and Azerbaijan claim to remain...

In a bid to break out of increasing international isolation, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week hosted Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas in Ankara – positioning Turkey as a key player in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Abbas received a standing ovation in the Turkish Parliament on Thursday, where he addressed an extraordinary session. Deputies wore scarves adorned with Turkish and Palestinian flags as a show of solidarity. With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan watching from the balcony, Abbas praised Turkey’s unwavering support for the Palestinian cause. "We highly appreciate Turkey's pioneering role under the leadership of President Erdogan for its courageous and unwavering positions in defense of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people to freedom and independence," declared Abbas. Increasing isolation Erdogan is attempting to position himself at the forefront of international opposition to Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza, even as Turkey finds itself increasingly sidelined from global efforts to resolve the conflict. China’s recent hosting of Palestinian faction leaders highlights Erdogan’s diminishing influence. “Erdogan was hoping to reconcile Palestinian factions, but China stole the spotlight and acted preemptively. China had more political clout over the parties,” Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics contemporary Turkish studies department, told RFI. Abbas’s visit to Russia on Tuesday further underscores the growing importance of other nations in efforts to address the Gaza conflict. Domestic message Erdogan’s invitation to Abbas also serves as a way to reinforce his pro-Palestinian credentials with his domestic conservative base. “He’s trying to keep his base intact domestically,” Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey’s Politikyol news portal, told RFI. “Once upon a time, Erdogan resonated with the Arab public in general. "The Arab Street, as it was called back then, and the Muslim population in general saw him as connected with international grassroots movements. But he doesn’t have that appeal anymore; he’s lost that appeal.” Turkey a bridge? Erdogan has long claimed to be a bridge between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. “This is an issue that Erdogan personally invested a lot of time and energy in,” said Selin Nasi. However, Erdogan’s influence with Hamas has waned, particularly after the assassination of its leader Ismail Haniyeh last month, and his replacement by Yahya Sinwar, who is relatively unknown in Turkey. "They cannot host [Sinwar], they cannot contact him, nor do they have the kind of relations that they had with Haniyeh. So they have to settle with Mahmoud Abbas at this point," Oney said. Abbas, however, appears to show little interest in Turkey's playing a larger role in resolving the conflict, and Erdogan's strong support of Hamas and his fiery rhetoric against Israel is increasingly isolating him from countries seeking to end the fighting.

China’s car giant BYD’s announcement to build a billion-dollar factory in Turkey represents a significant turnaround in bilateral relations. However, concerns persist regarding human rights issues and Turkey’s stance on the Chinese Muslim Uyghur community. In a ceremony attended by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, China's BYD car company signed an agreement to build a billion-dollar factory in Turkey. The factory will produce 150,000 vehicles annually, mainly for the European Union market. Analysts say the July deal marks a turning point in Turkish-Chinese relations. "The significance of this deal is Turkey would be considered as a transition country between China and the EU," Sibel Karabel, director of the Asia Pacific department of Istanbul's Gedik University told RFI. "This deal has the potential to reduce the trade imbalance, the trade deficit, which is a detriment to Turkey," he adds, "Turkey also wants to reap the benefits of China's cutting-edge technologies by collaborating with China." Sidestepping tariffs China's pivot towards Turkey, a NATO member, is also about Beijing's increasing competition for global influence, especially with the United States. Karabel says the planned BYD factory offers a way for China to avoid the EU's new tariffs on vehicles. Turkey is already a part of China's global investment strategy through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Beijing has shown interest in Turkey becoming a trade route from China to Europe through Ankara's Middle Corridor Intiative. But until now, such collaborations have until been just empty words, claims Ceren Ergenc a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies. Turkey set on rebuilding bridges with China to improve trade "When you look at the press statements after meetings, you don't see Chinese investments in Turkey, and the reason for that is because China perceives Turkey as a high political risk country in the region," Ergenc explains. One of the main factors widely cited for Beijing's reluctance to invest in Turkey is Ankara's strong support of China's Muslim Uyghur minority. Ankara has been critical of Beijing's crackdown on Uyghurs, offering refuge to many Uyghur dissidents. Their Turkish supporters fear Beijing's billion-dollar investment in Turkey could be part of an extradition deal struck during Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's recent visit to China. "There are rumors, of course, that the Chinese side is pressing for the ratification of this extradition agreement, that they would want Uyghurs in Turkey, some of them at least, to be returned to China to be tried in China," warns Cagdas Ungor of Istanbul's Marmara University, referring to people China considers to be dissidents or "terrorists". Common ground over Gaza Elsewhere, Ankara and Beijing are finding increasing diplomatic common ground, including criticism of Israel's war on Hamas. "If you take, for instance, the Gaza issue right now, Turkey and China, and even without trying," observes Ungor, "they see eye to eye on this issue. Their foreign policies align, overlap, and their policy becomes very much different from most of the other Western countries." Carmakers unhappy after EU hits China with tariffs on electric vehicles For example, Ankara welcomed last month's decision by Beijing to host Palestinian leaders amid an escalation of threats and bombardment by Israel. Such a move can provide common ground, Ungor suggests, and this could be the basis for future cooperation. "There are certain issues at a global level, at the regional level, that China seems to be a much better partner(to Turkey) than the Western countries," he concludes.

Joint military exercises between US and Armenian forces are the latest steps in Yerevan's efforts to shift away from Moscow. The potential reopening of the Armenian border with Turkey could also prove crucial – though it may ultimately depend on Armenia's rival, Azerbaijan. July saw major military drills in Armenia between Armenian and United States forces. "Politically, it is exceptionally relevant; they are four or five times larger than last year," explains Eric Hacopian, a political analyst in Armenia, who notes the range of US divisions mobilised for the drills. "It's not about peacekeeping." The military exercise, dubbed "Eagle Partner", is part of Yerevan's wider efforts to escape its Russian neighbour's sphere of influence, Hacopian believes. "These are serious exercises, and they were followed up with the news that there is going to be US permanent representation in the Ministry of Defence of Armenia as advisors to join the French who are already there," he noted. "Essentially, there is no other play but to join the West." France, Russia stand on opposite sides of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict Armenia is also seeking to reduce its economic dependence on Russia, pressing Turkey to open its border and providing a new gateway to Western markets for the landlocked country. Ankara closed the frontier in 1993 after ethnic Armenian forces seized the contested Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, with Azerbaijani forces recapturing the enclave last year, analysts say the opening of the border could now align with Turkey's goals to expand its regional influence. "The normalisation of the relationship with Armenia would allow Turkish policy in the Cacasus to acquire a more comprehensive dimension today. That's the missing element," said Sinan Ulgen, an analyst with the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a think tank in Istanbul. "Turkey obviously has very strong links to Azerbaijan and very good relations with Georgia, but not with Armenia," he explained. "And that's a predicament, as we look at Turkey's overall policy in the Caucasus." Leverage Washington is working hard to broker a permanent peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. "A deal is close," declared US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of July's NATO summit in Washington. Last week, Turkish and Armenian envoys held their fifth meeting aimed at normalising relations. However, with critical issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan unresolved, Baku sees Turkey's reopening of the Armenian border as important leverage. In principle, both Azerbaijan and Turkey are in favour, claims Farid Shafiyev, an Azeri former diplomat and now chair of the Centre of Analysis of International Relations in Baku. "However, we believe at this stage, as we have not signed a peace agreement, it might send a wrong signal to Yerevan and Armenia that we don't need to come to an agreement about the core issues – the mutual recognition of territorial integrity," he said. Can Turkey tip the balance of power in the Caucasus conflict? Meanwhile Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has developed close ties with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, and is ruling out opening the border until Baku's demands are met. Turkish arms were key to Azerbaijan's recent military successes against Armenian-backed forces. "Azerbaijan is where it is, in good part because of Turkey's military assistance, intelligence assistance and all that," argues Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University. But Ozel says Baku is dictating Ankara's Caucasus policy. "It is befuddling to me that Turkey cannot open the borders with Armenia, which Armenia both needs and wants, because of Azerbaijan's veto," he said. "Especially if indeed Azerbaijan, for one reason or another, believes that its interests are once more in turning toward Russia." With Azerbaijan's Socar energy company Turkey's biggest foreign investor, Baku...

A new law that threatens to cull millions of street dogs in Turkey has sparked nationwide anger. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists the strays are a public health risk, critics say the move is an attempt to distract from bigger problems. Under controversial legislation currently passing through parliament, local authorities would be responsible for rounding up stray dogs, which would be killed after 30 days if an owner can not be found for them. Opponents claim as many as eight million street dogs could be at risk. "They are planning to round them up into shelters, which we call death camps," said Zulal Kalkandelen, one of the animals rights activists taking part in a recent protest against the plan in Istanbul. "For some time, there has been a campaign to fuel stray animal hatred," she declared. "Our people, who have been living with street dogs for many years, in fact for centuries, are now being brought to the point where all these animals will be erased." Street dogs have been a part of Istanbul life for centuries. The proposed legislation evokes memories of a dark chapter in the city's past when, in 1910, street dogs were rounded up and left on a nearby island to starve. It has provoked emotive arguments in parliament, with MPs jostling one another and exchanging insults – opening another deep divide in an already fractured political landscape. But President Erdogan insists something must be done to control stray animals that, he argues, have become a menace to society, causing traffic accidents and spreading disease. Humane alternatives Addressing parliament, Erdogan claimed he was answering the call of the "silent majority". "The truth is that a very large part of society wants this issue to be resolved as soon as possible and our streets to become safe for everyone, especially our children," he declared. "It is unthinkable for us to remain indifferent to this demand, this call, even this cry. Our proposals are no different from those of other countries in Europe." Mixed reactions as France prepares to simplify wolf culling rules Lawyer Elcin Cemre Sencan, who has helped organise protests against the proposed legislation, argues there are more humane ways to address people's concerns. "There is a group of people who are disturbed by these stray animals or who are afraid even to touch them," she acknowledges. "But even if there are these concerns, the solution is not to put the dogs to sleep. "Scientific studies have shown that sterilising animals, especially dogs, reduces not only their numbers but also attacks on people." Veterinary organisations have also pointed out that the cost of euthanising a dog is many times higher than sterilisation and vaccination. Diversion tactic? Some critics suggest politics could be behind the move. With Erdogan's conservative AK Party suffering heavy defeats in local elections this spring and Turkey grappling with near 100 percent inflation, opponents claim the Turkish president could be calculating that objections to his street dog legislation comes mainly from the secular opposition and hoping the issue will consolidate his religious base. "We know our problems in this country; the world knows our problems. There is an economic crisis, and we have human rights problems everywhere. But they want to change the main topics to these animals," said Eyup Cicerali, a professor at Istanbul's Nisantasi University, at a recent protest against the legislation. "They want to kill them all," he claimed. "We are here to protect our values, values of respect and dignity for human and animal rights. Life is an issue for all groups." According to one recent opinion poll, less than 3 percent of the Turkish public support the culling of street dogs. Some of Erdogan's MPs have even started speaking out against the law in the media, albeit anonymously. "This law makes us dog killers," one unnamed deputy was quoted as saying. Despite such misgivings, the legislation is...

Facing mounting domestic tensions over Syrian refugees, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reaching out to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad for dialogue. The initiative, reportedly supported by Moscow, is complicated by Turkey's significant military presence in Syria. Erdogan's call for talks comes after widespread riots against Syrian refugees in Turkish cities. He aims to facilitate the return of Syrians who have fled to Turkey since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. Soli Ozel, an international relations expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, says the situation is volatile. "The country is like a tinderbox regarding refugees, especially as economic conditions deteriorate. Syrians have become easy scapegoats, and there's widespread frustration with their presence, justified or not. This has become a significant political issue," Ozel said. He also stresses that key to any solution is a credible plan for the orderly departure of Syrian refugees to reassure the Turkish public. Erdogan's party suffered losses in local elections in March, largely due to growing hostility towards over three million Syrian refugees in Turkey and rampant inflation approaching triple digits. These factors have intensified pressure on Erdogan to address the refugee situation. Turkey vows to keep borders shut despite new exodus of SyriansRussia's position Russia, under Putin, supports Erdogan's diplomatic outreach, seeing it as a potential end to Turkish backing of Syrian rebels and a conclusion to the civil war. This aligns with Moscow's priorities, since resolving the Syrian conflict would allow Russia to redirect military resources to Ukraine. However, Turkey's extensive military presence in Syria complicates potential talks. Turkish forces are engaged in operations against Kurdish groups, which Ankara claims are linked to domestic separatists. The Turkish military also protects Syrian rebel forces along the border. Aydin Selcen, a former Turkish diplomat and now a foreign policy analyst with Medyascope, suggests that Ankara's willingness to negotiate could provide Syria with an opportunity to secure Turkish withdrawal. "Assad relies heavily on external support and even internal factions" he said. "Unable to forcibly remove Turkish troops, Assad's only option is to request their withdrawal as a precondition for talks." Despite this, Erdogan insists on maintaining Turkey's military presence until Syria can effectively secure its borders. Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies said: "Turkey's primary concern is preventing the border region from becoming a security threat post-withdrawal. Turkey needs assurances from Syria before considering troop removal." Turkey's Syrian refugees face local hostility as economic problems mountHumanitarian crisis? The news of Erdogan's pursuit of dialogue with Damascus sparked unrest in rebel-held northeast Syria, with protesters targeting Turkish bases out of fear of potential abandonment by Ankara. Erdogan maintains that any agreement with Damascus would safeguard returning Syrian refugees and rebels. However, Fabrice Balanche, a regional expert from Lyon University, warns of an impending humanitarian crisis. "If the regime regains control of rebel areas, most residents will attempt to flee to Turkey. Turkey cannot accommodate four million additional refugees," Balanche cautions. "These people are acutely aware that remaining under regime control, even with promised amnesties, puts them at risk of targeting by security forces, conscription, or worse. There's no real protection." Despite ongoing tensions in Turkey over the Syrian refugee presence, Erdogan is seeking Putin's assistance to soften Assad's stance on negotiations. The Turkish leader has proposed hosting a trilateral summit this summer, though there's been no positive response so far. The current situation highlights the complex interplay of regional politics, humanitarian...

Turkey's bid to join the BRICS trading group is the latest move in the Turkish President's delicate balancing act between Western and Eastern allies. The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Almaty, Kazakhstan, provided a platform for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet in person. Their encounter was marked by a display of cordiality, with both leaders appearing at ease and Putin emphasizing the significance of their bilateral relationship. Active engagement Putin, standing alongside Erdogan, stated, "We continue to actively engage on crucial matters of international politics." He further added, "Our communication is constant, and our respective ministries and departments regularly share information and align our stances on key issues." Erdogan was observed nodding in agreement with these remarks. Turkey set on rebuilding bridges with China to improve tradeHow Turkey's support for Ukraine is a double-edged swordAccording to reports, a notable topic on the leaders' agenda was Turkey's aspiration to join BRICS, an economic alliance comprising Russia, China, and several nations from Asia, Africa, and South America. This potential membership represents a significant shift in Turkey's international alignments. Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst at GlobalSource Partners, explains, "A core principle of BRICS is reducing the dollar's role in mutual trade, which aligns with Turkey's interests." He argues that BRICS membership complements Turkey's broader foreign policy objectives, stating, "The concept of a new platform fostering trade among geographically distant countries naturally appeals to Turkey and fits its foreign policy stance." Yesilada suggests that Turkey's BRICS bid serves an additional purpose: "It signals to Putin that Turkey intends to maintain and strengthen its growing commercial ties with Russia." This comes despite Putin's recent cautions to Turkey regarding its efforts to improve relations with its traditional Western allies. The Russian leader strongly supports Turkey's BRICS membership bid. Ceren Ergenc, a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, posits that Moscow views Turkey's potential BRICS membership as a strategic move to balance Beijing's increasing influence within the group. Turikey and BRICS Putin strongly supports Turkey's BRICS membership bid. Ceren Ergenc, a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, suggests this support is part of Moscow's strategy to counterbalance Beijing's growing influence within BRICS. Ergenc explains, "BRICS has become China's domain, with recent membership invitations primarily extended to countries China seeks closer ties with, effectively sidelining Russia and India as the group's other major powers." Turkey's pursuit of BRICS membership coincides with its stalled EU accession process, hampered by Turkey's non-compliance with the EU's Copenhagen Criteria on human rights. This impasse is reportedly affecting Turkey's trade relations with the EU. Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst, notes, "Erdogan's frustration with the EU's lack of progress on Turkey's accession and customs union update contributed to the BRICS bid." However, Yesilada argues that Turkey's interest in BRICS transcends Erdogan's presidency, reflecting a broader foreign policy strategy. He states, "This aligns with Turkey's overarching policy goal, widely supported by the country's policy establishment, of maintaining independence from any single political bloc, be it Western or Eastern." As Erdogan prepares to attend the NATO summit in Washington, where he's expected to reaffirm Turkey's Western security commitments, analysts view the BRICS bid as a clear indication that Ankara is diversifying its international partnerships beyond its traditional Western allies.

The EU on Friday congratulated Keir Starmer on Labour's election win in Britain, with European Council President Charles Michel calling it "historic". But Labour's landslide victory doesn't mean that London will turn back the clock on Brexit. Keir Starmer has pledged to "make Brexit work" and seek "an ambitious" security pact with the the European Union. But contrary to the hopes of many in the UK who may have hoped that London would return to the EU mainland fold, Labour is careful not to offend its pro-Brexit constituencies. Over the years, especially in the north of England, many voters shifted to the pro-Brexit ideas of the Conservative party, afraid that EU immigrants would take away their jobs. RFI talks to political scientist John Barry, of Queens University in Belfast, about how he thinks Brexit affected the UK economy, and if London will ever rejoin the common market. This interview was carried out online.

Istanbul police now have some of the world's most expensive sports cars – spoils of seized assets in a crackdown on international organised crime. It's part of Ankara's efforts to escape international scrutiny over money laundering as it seeks global investment. In the heart of Istanbul, onlookers gather around taking selfies of the police's latest addition to its carpool: a Ferrari. City police now boast some of the world's flashiest supercars, not only Ferraris but also Bentleys and Lexuses. They're the pickings of a nationwide crackdown on international organised crime involving narcotics smuggling and money laundering. Turkey's unique geography straddling Europe and Asia makes it an ideal centre for international crime. "Turkey is in between the continents. So once you want to transfer a commodity which is illegal, it may be drugs, etc, you must have a step here," says Murat Aslan of the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research, a think tank in Ankara. Gang links "Most criminal gangs in Europe or the United States or South America have links to the ones here in Turkey – and that is why police have started operations, especially focusing on the ones who have warrants or arrest warrants by Interpol. "It's a process, and Turkey is currently in the middle of it." Interior Ministry videos show heavily armed police breaking down doors in the middle of the night at luxury addresses usually associated with Istanbul's high society. Vast quantities of cash and guns are invariably recovered. Among those arrested are some of the world's most wanted criminals from Europe, Asia, and the United States, most connected to the illicit drugs trade, underlining Turkey's status as a hub for the European narcotics trade. Last week, Turkish police, with their Spanish and French counterparts, broke up a European Central American drug cartel, resulting in dozens of arrests. "According to Interpol and the Turkish police's narcotics department, Turkey has become a transshipment hub for Europe and the Middle East," says Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst for Global Source Partners, another think tank. "There are huge amounts of money floating around here." Turkey set on rebuilding bridges with China to improve tradeCrime hub Yesilada says Turkey became a hub for international crime not only because of its geography but also because of the government's recent efforts to attract foreign currency to prop up the Turkish lira with a wealth amnesty. "Look at our wealth amnesty, bring cash, bring diamonds, we don't really care. Just check it at the border or deposit it in a bank, and we'll never ask questions. This never-ask-questions part is, of course, completely in violation of the spirit of the global anti-money laundering legislation," Yesilada says. Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, at a recent press conference on the crackdown, announced that over 1,000 arrests – including 50 people wanted by Interpol – had been made this year, along with over 3 billion dollars in seized assets. Yerlikaya says he's committed to ending Turkey's reputation as a haven for drug kingpins. "Thirty-eight mafia-type organised crime gangs, seven of which were international and 31 of which were local, were broken up," Yerlikaya says. "We consider drugs a global disaster in the Turkish century. Our main goal in the fight against drugs is to ensure that Turkey becomes an inaccessible and Prohibited Zone for drugs. We consider drug crime equivalent to terrorism." Turkey cuts trade with Israel but seeks role in resolving Gaza conflictTurkey grey-listed The crackdown follows the international anti-money laundering organisation the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) putting Turkey on its grey list of countries failing to combat global money laundering. "Commercial banks and global funds are reluctant to do business with a country that's still on the grey list because, you know, too many sanctions," warns Yesilada. Turkey's crackdown on...

Protests in Turkey are intensifying over Azerbaijani oil deliveries to Israel. Despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan imposing a trade embargo on Israel over its war against Hamas, the trade, which passes through a Turkish port, continues. Campaigners in Turkey advocating for a boycott of Israeli trade are focusing on Azerbaijan's oil supply to Israel via the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Oil protests Demonstrators from the group Thousand Youth for Palestine recently targeted the Istanbul headquarters of SOCAR, Azerbaijan's state energy company, splashing red paint over its walls. Students at Istanbul's prestigious Galatasaray University also protested against a speech by a senior SOCAR executive, accusing the company of having blood on its hands. Experts say Azerbaijan, a close ally of Israel, meets around 40% of Israeli oil needs, a trade that has not been affected by Israel's war on Hamas. "Until now, Azerbaijan has not stopped its oil exports to Israel. On the contrary, they are going as normal, and this again a manifestation of the reliability of Azerbaijan and that it is a true partner of Israel," explained Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "I would even say that since Azerbaijan opened an embassy in Israel just a year ago, trade relations have actually expanded," added Lindenstrauss. Trade with Israel Protests against Turkish-Israeli trade have hurt President Recep Tayyip Erdogan politically. Analysts say opposition to Israeli trade, along with an economic crisis, was a factor in March's local elections defeat of Erdogan's AK Party. Turkey cuts trade with Israel but seeks role in resolving Gaza conflict"Had there not been the economic crisis, probably they (Turkish voters) wouldn't also be so concerned about the trade with Israel," Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey's Politikyol news portal, said. "But the economic crisis somehow removed the rosy glasses, rose-colored glasses of so many people in Turkey, including the AK party supporters," Oney added. "So they started to see things as they are and criticize the government and even Erdogan directly." Following his local election defeat, Erdogan imposed an Israeli trade embargo, boasting that Turkey was taking the lead in standing up to Israel. However, with the Turkish president having close ties with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and Azerbaijan's SOCAR energy company, Turkey's biggest international investor, analysts say Baku retains leverage over Ankara. Erdogan’s local election defeat reshapes Turkey’s political landscapeTurkey talks tough on Israel but resists calls to cut off oil"Over the past few years, the Azeri-Israeli relationship has been consolidated; it is a bulwark against Iran as well in some regards," Mehmet Ogutcu of the London Energy Club, a grouping of government and energy sector leaders, said. "Therefore, the Azeris, although I'm sure they are also unhappy with what's happening in Gaza as a result of the Israeli land forces attack, and they would probably impress on Erdogan not to go that far to stop this oil flow," added Ogutcu. Protests in Turkey against Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel are ongoing, prompting police to arrest organizers and thereby triggering further demonstrations. A mother of one of the detainees, addressing supporters outside an Istanbul courthouse, demanded to know why her son was detained for defending Palestine. The video of the speech went viral across Turkish social media. Analysts suggest that such expressions of anger can only serve to further undermine Erdogan's claims of leading international protests against Israeli actions in Gaza. "The Turkish government said that they stopped trade with Israel, but somehow, it's continuing in other ways," Sezin Oney of the Politikyol news portal, said "So I think the real culprit, more so than Azerbaijan companies or Azerbaijan's Aliyev, or other circles in Azerbaijan itself, [is] the...

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's visit to China earlier this month is the latest diplomatic effort by Ankara to become a strategic trade hub between Europe and China. But Beijing's suspicions over Ankara's support of Chinese Uyghur dissidents is widely seen as an obstacle. Bilateral trade and developing new trade routes were at the top of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's agenda for his recent China visit. According to Cagdas Ungor, an expert on China and professor of political science at Istanbul's Marmara University, Turkey wants to be a part of the shift in global trading towards the Asia Pacific region. "Turkey needs to rebuild all these connections in order to remain at the center of things, maintaining its bridge status between East and West," he explained to RFI. Ankara is seeking backing from Beijing of its "Middle Corridor" trade route, which would link China with Europe via Turkey. Until now, such efforts have made little progress, but Ungor says this could change due to the world economy resetting to circumvent sanction-hit Russia. Middle Corridor has been on the table between China and Turkey for a long time, Ungor says. Window of opportunity "The idea of it has become more popular now because of the Russian sanctions, and Europeans are now also interested in alternative channels. There's a window of opportunity," he says. But Beijing is critical of Ankara offering refuge to China's predominantly Muslim Uyghur minority. The Chinese have not forgotten that in 2009, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was Prime Minister, he described China's crackdown on Uyghurs as "near genocide". Beijing furious over damning UN rights report on Uyghurs in XinjiangThe international community, including the United States and the European Union, have also accused China of incarcerating tens of thousands of its largest Muslim minority in camps in an effort to strip them of their Muslim identity. Beijing has denied these accusations, saying the camps are designed to combat separatism and weed out Islamist extremists. Since then, the issue seems to have become water under the bridge, judging by the warm reception Turkey's diplomat was given on his China visit at the beginning of June. Analysts say Fidan used more conciliatory language on the issue during his trip which included a stop in Xinjiang, home to many Uyghurs. Respect for one-China policy Ungor says the the Chinese were "happy" with Fidan's visit, as it further underlined Turkey's support for China's one-China policy. "The official Chinese media focused on the fact that Turkey respects China's territorial integrity," Ungor says. "And Fidan's remarks on Xinjiang's economic development, social harmony, respect for cultural rights" made a good impression, adds Ungor. Turkey's pro-government media even praised Fidan for wearing a turquoise blue tie, the color of the Uyghur community and referring to the region's Turkic Muslim roots. Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economyHowever, some members of the Uyghur diaspora were alarmed by Fidan's visit. Uyghur leader Seyit Tumturk, the head of East Turkistan National Assembly accused the Chinese administration of "trying to legitimise its own genocide" by with Fidan's visit to the Uyghur region. Tumturk maintains that "Hakan Fidan saw what China wanted him to see, but no more," suggesting that if China had nothing to hide, then it should allow international independent observers to have the opportunity to go there "and visit not only places China says to see but also the back streets, to visit the households, and to determine the agony, pain, and torture there," he concludes. Wildcard Adding to Uyghur dissidents' unease over Fidan's China visit are growing rumors that Ankara is ready to acquiesce to Beijing's lobbying to ratify an extradition agreement held up in the Turkish parliament in the face of strong opposition. "The ultranationalist opposition claims that China got...

Turkish companies are emerging as significant suppliers of weapons to Ukraine and are supporting United States efforts to resolve Kyiv's ammunition shortages. However, this support is a challenge to Ankara's efforts to balance its relationship with Moscow and its Western allies. Turkey has managed to tread a fine diplomatic line by maintaining ties with both Russia and Ukraine since Moscow invaded its pro-Western neighbour in February 2022. At the same time, Ankara has improved its relationship with the United States and has even coordinated with them in arms production to help Ukraine. The United States' latest munitions factory in Texas, which goes online this month, uses the Turkish company Repkon's state-of-the-art equipment. The new plant is vital to meeting the Ukrainian army's current shortages and ultimately aims to meet a third of the United States's needs. Turkey analyst Sinan Ciddi of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies says Ukrainians are running low because they've been using the Allied-supplied Howitzers that require a certain kind of ammunition. France and allies launch 'artillery coalition' to bring more weapons to Ukraine"This has been the essential sort of weapon of choice that has prevented up until recently, the advancement, and recapture of Ukrainian towns by Russian troops," he tells RFI. "That Turkey is stepping into this is remarkable," Ciddi continues, "simply because Turkey has a vast ability not only to procure and manufacture, but it's a vital sort of supply line for the US, which is also actually starting to run low based on the amount of shells it has supplied the Ukrainian partner right." Source of tension The United States Ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, praised the collaboration as a sign of the growing importance of deepening bilateral ties. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's close relations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have been a source of tension between Ankara and Washington. Since the outset of Russia's invasion, Ankara has supported Kyiv but remained neutral, refusing to enforce Western sanctions against Moscow. Meanwhile, another Turkish company, Baykar, is building a military drone factory in Ukraine. Biden pledges $225m in fresh aid for Ukraine at Paris talks with Zelensky"It's a little bit risky to establish a factory in Ukraine under the war conditions," warns defense analyst Tayfun Ozberk. "It's very critical for Turkey, of course, establishing a factory in Ukraine – it has a political message, but it will not; I believe change Turkey's position in this war," added Ozberk. For Sine Ozkarasahin, an independent Turkish defense analyst, "Turkey's definitely walking on thin ice." Doubling down on support for Ukraine will surely test Ankara's policy of balancing ties with Moscow and its Western allies, she says. Agree to disagree Ozkarasahin maintains that this balancing act with Russia is very much Turkey's current diplomatic policy, which she calls "compartmentalisation, or "agree to disagree". It means that Turkey and Russia can have different agendas on ongoing war in Ukraine or the situation in Syria, but still collaborate in different domains, such as energy trade. "Ankara separates these things from each other, which forms one of the main pillars of its policy towards Russia and in the end, Turkey's a critical lifeline for Russia," she says. While Turkey's defense industry is increasing its support for Ukraine and Western allies' efforts to supply the Ukrainian military, Ankara remains a vital trading partner with Russia. Turkey agrees deal to clear Black Sea of mines that threaten Ukrainian exportsSinan Ciddi points out that the US Treasury has sanctioned Turkish companies supplying duel-use goods to the Russian military, including microchips, parts that go directly into the manufacture of high-end Russian weaponry that is being used against the Ukrainians. "Turkey is playing both sides of this," he says,...

Turkey's longest-running peaceful protest has entered its thousandth week. For decades, the "Saturday Mothers" have been holding silent vigils to demand justice for relatives who disappeared while being held by security forces. At Galatasaray Square, in the heart of Istanbul, a mother calls out for justice for a child who's not been seen for decades – since being apprehended by police. The Saturday Mothers, named after a similar campaign in Argentina, gather in this square to demand answers. They want to know what happened to their missing relatives, and to hold those responsible to account. On display are hundreds of photos of those who disappeared while being held by security forces. Among the youngest is a 13-year-old shepherd called Davut. Denials Ikbal Eren has been campaigning for decades to find the truth behind her brother Hayrettin's enforced disappearance. "Hayrettin Eren was detained at the Saraçhane crossing in Istanbul and taken to the Gayrettepe police headquarters, where he disappeared," Eren says. "Although we have five witnesses confirming his detention, they always deny he was held. We also saw his car in the yard of the Security Directorate." Even if 44 more years pass, Eren says he will not give up seeking justice for his brother and the others who are missing. Hayrettin vanished during military rule in the 1980s, but most of the hundreds of enforced disappearances happened in the 1990s at the height of the Turkish state's war against the Kurdish rebel group, the PKK. "Especially in the early '90s – '92 to '94 mostly – an enormous number of mainly men were arrested and never seen again," says Emma Sinclair Webb of Human Rights Watch. Armenian genocide remembered as Assyrians fight for acknowledgement of their plightJustice eluded Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised justice in 2011, when he was prime minister, after meeting with some of the Saturday Mothers. There were criminal investigations into those accused of being behind the disappearances, and even court cases, but all ended in acquittal. The state has cracked down on the mothers in recent years, deeming their protest to be subversive. Galatasaray Square is now permanently sealed off, and usually only a weekly token of 10 or so people are allowed in. "Those in power cannot bear to have these women and the relatives of the disappeared meeting every Saturday and presenting them with the crimes the state committed," said Sinclair Webb. "For years the authorities have done everything in their power to criminalise this vigil and those who have been involved in it." The thousandth week anniversary of Saturday Mothers, held in May, saw an outpouring of support across social media – and even a pop music video commemorating their struggle. Rock star Teoman recorded the song "Saturday Mothers", recalling the fight for justice in the face of intimidation and adversity. The song's video went viral across social media. Erdogan’s local election defeat reshapes Turkey’s political landscapeOngoing struggle With the Saturday Mothers campaign passing the thousand-week threshold, they're vowing to continue until they find justice for their lost relatives. "We are trying to explain that our disappeared are not abandoned; they are not orphans. We are trying to learn about their fate," says Birsen Karakoc, who's been searching for her brother Ridvan since the 1990s. "We are trying to understand why they were tortured to death. We want justice; that is why we are here every week. "For 30 years we have been here since the first week, and we will continue to be here." At the end of the 1,000th-week ceremony in Galatasaray Square, Birsen's brother Hasan places flowers on a sculpture celebrating the Turkish Republic. He calls out to onlookers to say: "Until all our disappeared are found and those responsible are brought to justice, we will never give up."

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi was laid to rest on Thursday, concluding days of funeral rites attended by thousands of mourners after his death in a helicopter crash last week. Experts say the tragedy may well increase tensions between Iran and Turkey, both vying for influence in the Middle East. Hundreds of thousands marched in Raisi's home town Mashhad to bid farewell ahead of his burial following processions in the cities of Tabriz, Qom, Tehran and Birjand. The 63-year-old died on Sunday alongside his Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and six others after their helicopter went down in the country's mountainous northwest while returning from a dam inauguration on the border with Azerbaijan. A huge search and rescue operation was launched, involving help from the European Union, Russia and Turkey before the crash site was located early on Monday. Iran’s President Raisi killed in helicopter crash, EU sends condolencesThe Iranian military said that a drone dispatched by Turkey had failed to locate the crash site "despite having night-vison equipment". "Finally, in the early hours of Monday morning, the exact spot of the helicopter crash was discovered by the ground rescue forces and Iranian drones of the armed forces," the military said in a statement carried by the official IRNA news agency. Meanwhile, on Thursday Iran's army said it has so far found no evidence of criminal activity related to the crash. Simmering tensions The high profile deaths come as rivalry continues to intensify between Iran and Turkey. "For Turkey, the future of South Caucasia, Iraq and Syria are critical for its national security. And here in these areas of Turkey, all face Iranian opposition against Turkey's interests," explained Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University. For example, the Turkish military is poised to launch a major offensive in Iraq and Syria against the bases of the Kurdish rebel group PKK, which is fighting the Turkish state. Ankara has repeatedly criticised Tehran for failing to support its efforts, while Iran is concerned about Turkey encroaching in areas it considers to be in its sphere of influence. Turkey's Erdogan targets support against Kurdish rebels during Iraq tripThe death of Raisi has brought to the fore bitter memories of the killing by the United States four years ago of Qasim Soleimani, the veteran head of the international operations of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. "These two important personalities had been increasing Iranian influence in the Middle East very strongly," observed Professor of International Relations Huseyin Bagci at Ankara's Middle East Technical University. Bagci says Turkey's diplomatic advantage will no doubt be stronger as Iran heads into presidential elections on 28 June. "I don't know if the new foreign minister and President will somehow get the same level of this influence because they will be mostly inexperienced people," he says. Internal fight for power Bagci suggests that a real internal fight for power will be problematic for the country because "Iranian society is much more dynamic and progressive than the regime. "There is a partnership between the clerics and the military. But these two institutions are also fighting amongst each other." However, if Iran's Revolutionary Guard increases its power, experts warn that it could also result in a more assertive use of Iranian proxies controlled by the IRGC in Iraq and Syria, which are often as odds with Turkish interests. Alagoz says that the IRGC's view of the region is very problematic because the Iran proxies are a problem for the future of the Middle East. "The overconfidence of the IRGC combined with political power will be a destabilising factor in the Middle East, and so Turkey will always be concerned by this issue." With Ankara and Tehran competing for power from Syria and Iraq to Sudan, analysts say the outcome of Iran's transition of power...

Greece and Turkey are stepping up rapprochement efforts, with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visiting Turkey on Monday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The trip is part of detente attempts after years of tensions centered on territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea. Monday's meeting follows Erdogan's visit to Athens last December, which was also part of mutual efforts towards bringing the countries closer. "I think it's one of the ways in which Turkey and Greece could add more new momentum to the diplomacy that has started," Berkay Mandiraci, a senior Turkey analyst for the International Crisis Group, said. "They've been actually engaged in quite intense diplomacy on different fronts for over a year now." Territorial disputes over the Aegean Sea – believed to have vast energy reserves – have brought the neighbours to the brink of war in the past. Both nations backing rival sides over the divided island of Cyprus has also thwarted previous rapprochement endeavours. Side-stepping issues Erdogan and Mitsotakis are predicted to avoid contentious subjects and are expected to take a one-step-at-a-time approach on areas of collaboration. Confidence-building measures under discussion include increasing trade, further developments of a recently expanded road at the Turkey-Greece border and ensuring visa-free travel to Turkish citizens for eastern Aegean islands. "I think they are all important in terms of people-to-people contact, building trust, increasing trade and also improving connectivity and energy cooperation," Mandiraci said. "Hopefully this will lead to the opening of a new round of negotiation on the Aegean dispute." Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are seen to provide further incentive to improving ties as analysts say both leaders realise that bilateral tensions will only exacerbate regional instability. "Look at what's happening in Israel, in Gaza and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Both sides want to limit their exposure to foreign risks," said political scientist Ioannis Grigoriadis of Ankara's Bilkent University. "Greek-Turkish relations had gone through a very difficult period until five years ago, but ever since the earthquakes that hit south-eastern and southern Turkey, both sides have declared their willingness to reduce tensions." Greece was quick to help Turkey after last year's earthquakes. But unless territorial disputes over the Aegean are addressed, the rapprochement is considered vulnerable – especially because both militaries are re-arming. Common ground "As long as they don't tackle [the Aegean Sea dispute] and they don't take the bull by the horns, things will go like a pendulum, backward and forwards," said Alexis Heraclides of Panteion University in Athens. "The Greek-Turkish relations in this region is the most complicated of relations. I'm not saying that it's impossible for them not to make a U-turn and get back to the default position of confrontation and mutual acrimonious accusations." But there is cause for cautious optimism given that Erdogan and Mitsotakis renewed their electoral mandates last year. "Both leaders are very strong domestically and this makes them less eager to listen to the sort of nationalist voices that exist in both countries that are more comfortable with a more aggressive attitude," said Grigoriadis.

Turkey has cut off trade with Israel as bilateral relations deteriorate over the Gaza conflict. The move follows domestic calls for a tougher stance against Israel, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking a more prominent regional role. The Turkish Trade Ministry announced Friday that all exports and imports with Israel have been cut until uninterrupted and adequate humanitarian aid is allowed into Gaza. The Israeli foreign minister, Israel Katz, was quick to condemn the move, saying it violated trade agreements and was the action was that of a "dictator". It follows Erdogan's high-profile meeting with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh last month. Domestic criticism Erdogan's actions are seen as an attempt to quell growing domestic criticism of his complicated stance on the war – on one hand maintaining trade with Israel, while on the other condemning the country's war with Hamas. "In order to convince conservative voters that there is no such thing as a hypocritical approach... they are taking a tougher stance and necessary measures," says Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics. Nasi says Erdogan could further deepen Turkey's ties with Hamas, especially if cut theirs. "We know that Qatar has been facing a lot of pressure in the international arena because of its ties with Hamas," she points out. "Turkey might emerge as a potential candidate country to host Hamas if Qatar decides to send Hamas members abroad." Turkish government looks to regain ground by limiting ties with IsraelRegional cooperation? Erdogan's party was handed a thumping defeat in March local elections, which saw many of his traditional conservative religious voters abstaining or voting for opposition parties – a move blamed in part on ongoing trade ties with Israel. However, Ankara is seeking a wider role in resolving the Gaza conflict. Erdogan is also stepping up diplomatic efforts with Egypt after hosting Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry in April. Relations between Turkey and Egypt have been warming after years of tensions, and analysts say there's room for cooperation. "Both are very active in the rhetorical space in terms of their deep sympathy for the Palestinians in Gaza. At the same time, they maintain their diplomatic and security ties with Israel," says Jalel Harchaoui at the Royal United Services Institute in London. "Both are known – particularly Egypt, from Washington's perspective – for their direct communication line [with Hamas]. Both use that as a source of leverage vis-a-vis the West," he explains. Turkey and Egypt turn page on decade of friction with show of friendshipBut analysts warn Erdogan's public attacks on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu limit any mediating role for Turkey. "At some point, the government has to moderate its tone, to repair its dialogue with Israel, because as it stands Turkey is no longer perceived as an impartial, third-party actor that can take on a role as a mediator," says Nasi. She nonetheless believes there is room for Ankara to play a constructive role. "Instead of perhaps endorsing Hamas, Turkey has to shift to a more balanced position between Hamas and Fatah and perhaps put its energy and resources into reconciling different rival Palestinian factions." Washington visit postponed Erdogan this month blamed Iran and Israel for increasing tensions, a break from only criticising Israel. Analysts say Turkey's close ties to Hamas could counter Iran's influence on the group. However, Erdogan's overtures to Hamas were a factor in the postponement of a planned visit to Washington in May, which was blamed on scheduling issues. "It's impossible not to rule out Gaza as one of the reasons for the cancellation," said Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "I think at a time when people are talking about mass graves and there are protests all around US campuses, the Turkish president does not want to be seen...

A group of international activists are seeking to break Israel's blockade of Gaza with a flotilla of vessels carrying aid. But with 10 people killed by Israeli security forces in a similar mission 14 years ago, fears are growing that the latest flotilla could provoke a fresh crisis. The loading of medical supplies and food is underway on the Akdeniz, an old ferry boat that will lead the flotilla of three ships carrying over 5,000 tonnes of aid to Gaza. At a press conference, the flotilla's organisers, a coalition of international and Turkish humanitarian groups, claimed the flotilla is not just about delivering aid. "We hope to break the illegal naval blockade of Gaza that Israel has had on it for decades," Ann Wright of US Boat to Gaza explained to RFI. Wright acknowledged the aid they plan to deliver will do little to alleviate the humanitarian crisis but hopes it will open the door to more assistance. "We hope to certainly bring food and medicines that are needed by the people of Gaza. But it's a small drop in the bucket. We're calling for the border of Rafah to be opened, where tons of food are waiting. It's criminal that the world has not forced the entry of these trucks into Gaza." Wright said the issue was being forced because "people that are starving and suffering genocide must have assistance". If the governments won't act, "we, the citizens will", she said. Flotilla in 2010 In 2010, ten people died the last time a flotilla sought to break Israel's Gaza blockade. When Israeli commandos intercepted the Mavi Marmara, which was leading the flotilla, activists said they were aware of the dangers they faced, but given the humanitarian crisis in Gaza it was a risk worth taking. France condemns killing of Gaza NGO workers as US pressed to toughen stance with IsraelTurkish court indicts Israeli soldiers two years after flotilla raid"We are conscious that it's not a mission without any danger," said Nima Machouf is with the group, Canada Boat to Gaza. "But the danger and the horror is part of the horror that we want to denounce that it is faced by Palestinian people. Gaza people need medical support and need food." Flotilla participants are given lessons on how to de-escalate a possible confrontation with Israeli forces. There has been no comment from Israeli officials. Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Avi, warns the risks are real given the tensions in the region. "Both on the Israeli side and on the Turkish side, there is an understanding of how dangerous things might get out of hand. So I think there will be caution, both from the Turkish side and the Israeli side," said Lindenstrauss. "But obviously, this is a very, very intense time now in Israel. And, also, I would be very careful, and hope that, the authorities are on both sides are aware of what they need to do to make sure that this will not escalate into violence." Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is likely to have the final say on whether the flotilla will leave, has not commented on the mission. But Erdogan met with Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh last Saturday, in which humanitarian aid to Gaza was discussed – a meeting Israel condemned. Whatever risks flotilla organisers say they are determined to deliver aid to Gaza. "Of course, we are worried, but, we think that, the time is now to act," said Torstein Dahle, a former Norwegian parliamentarian of Ship to Gaza Norway. But Dahle says the flotilla is looking for international protection. "We demand support from national governments, from everybody who has influence on this matter, to facilitate the supply of humanitarian aid to the starving people of Gaza," he said.