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The banning of an Istanbul-based independent radio station has sparked political condemnation and protests in Turkey. With a mission to bridge the country's cultural divides over the last 30 years, Acik Radio's closure is seen as part of the government's attempts to tighten its grip on the media. Turkey's media regulator, RTUK, revoked the station's licence, claiming it had failed to comply with an earlier fine and suspension. That order came after a guest earlier this year referred to the 1915 killings of Armenians by Turkey's then-Ottoman rulers as a genocide. RTUK ruled that the comment incited public hatred. While Acik did pay the fine, it didn't come off air, saying it was appealing the initial ruling in court. The revocation of its broadcasting licence has drawn international condemnation and alarm. "Acik Radio has always adopted a moderate language, reflecting various political views," Erol Onderoglu, the Turkey representative for Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) told RFI. Onderoglu warns that banning Acik is part of a wider trend in the country of "eliminating media pluralism and weakening remaining minority voices". He continued: "It is in line with a political mission to impose a single official view on society, what they call national and patriotic journalism." 'Cultural hub' In Istanbul's Kadikoy district, listeners have been chanting in protest over Acik Radio's removal from the airwaves. Elif Unal, an avid listener, said the station has been an important part of everyday life for a long time. "They ban everything that makes us smile, that makes us feel happy," she said. "Most of the people in Istanbul, across Turkey, open their eyes listening to Acik Radio. Acik Radio is important because it's a cultural hub and also a political supporter of many organisations, NGOs and activists." Armenians warn ethnic cleansing risks being forgotten – again Protestor Mete Atature said he grew up listening to Acik. "Whichever programme you are listening to, you'll learn something. Not like a lecture, not like an education programme, but there's always something it leaves you with, and I miss that." He added: "From one side, of course, it's a shock. From another side, it's not unexpected, given the way the whole country is going. There is less and less free speech, and there's more oppression, and this is another example." Diverse voices Since its launch in 1994, Acik Radio has sought to bridge Turkey's deep cultural and political divides. Volunteers produce and present social and cultural programmes that represent the country's diverse population, including minorities. Yetvart Danzikyan hosted Acik's show "Radio Agos," a programme aimed at Turkey's Armenian minority. "We tried to make the unheard voices of not only the Armenian community but also all the other minorities, the Greek, Jewish, and Suryani communities," he said, adding that they were trying to bring even more unheard voices to the station's programmes. Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up Turkey's main opposition parties are supporting the station, and say the closure is a government attempt to further tighten its grip on the country's media. For now, Acik has returned to broadcasting via the internet, securing a licence under the new name of APACIK Radio. But those who run the station feel they are fighting an uphill battle. "The general atmosphere is getting towards more repression in Turkey," Acik's co-founder Omer Madra said wearily. "But we are very determined to fight on, and we've had some magnificent support from all the regions of the country."

With Donald Trump on course to begin his second term as US president, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eyeing renewed opportunities for collaboration – hoping to rekindle the close relationship the two shared during Trump’s first presidency. Erdogan, who congratulated Trump as a "friend" on social media, sees this as a chance to reshape US-Turkey relations. During Biden’s presidency, engagement was largely limited to foreign ministers – marking a stark contrast to the “strong leader-to-leader relationship” Erdogan and Trump had enjoyed, says analyst Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara. Trump and President Erdogan met face to face about nine times, compared to only two "brief encounters" with Biden, he adds. Chemistry Erdogan often speaks warmly of his dealings with Washington during Trump's first term in office. "The chemistry is the same. Two charismatic leaders, two leaders who are unpredictable," notes Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Yeditepe University. He believes their personal rapport could set the stage for greater bilateral and regional cooperation, including efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Erdogan has long sought to play a role in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, given his close ties with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and, more controversially, with Vladimir Putin – a relationship that drew criticism and suspicion from some of Turkey's NATO partners. "Trump will push for negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war. And I think that's something that Turkey has always preferred," predicts Asli Aydintasbas a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Turkey eyes US presidential race that stands to shake up mutual ties YPG policy Erdogan will also look to Trump for changes in US policy toward the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that Ankara views as linked to the PKK, a group fighting the Turkish state. The YPG’s alliance with Washington against the Islamic State has strained US-Turkey relations, with Biden resisting Erdogan’s calls to end support for the group. Former Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen predicts Erdogan will hope Trump might be open to a deal. "Erdogan thinks that, like himself, Trump too is a pragmatic leader. So leaving aside principles or other such in brackets, the two sides can reach an agreement by giving and taking something between the two," says Selcen. Unpredictability While Trump has often spoken positively about Erdogan, he nonetheless remains unpredictable. “Can you rely on him?” asks Murat Aslan of SETA, a Turkish pro-government thinktank. Tensions between Turkey and Israel could also complicate relations. Erdogan has expressed hope that Trump will succeed where Biden failed in ending Israel’s war on Hamas and Hezbollah, but with Trump’s strong support for Israel and Erdogan’s backing of Hamas, a clash could be looming. "What happens if there is an escalation in the Middle East with the polarisation of Israel and Turkey, as it currently is, and the attitude of Trump, it's very clear that the Trump administration will threaten Turkey," says Aslan. With conflicts raging across the region, Erdogan views a new Trump presidency as an opportunity for Turkey and the region. But given the leaders' unpredictability, that opportunity doesn't come without risks.

As the United States stands on the brink of what many are calling the most consequential presidential election in recent history, the nation is focused on the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump organised last-day rallies. RFI's Jan Van de Made looks back at a campaign marked by unprecedented polarisation. The bitter rivals embarked on a final frenzied campaign blitz Monday with both hitting must-win Pennsylvania on the last day of a tight and volatile US presidential election campaign. Pennsylvania is the single biggest swing state prize under the US Electoral College system, which awards influence in line with population. Republican Trump has promised a "landslide" as he seeks his return to the White House, while Democrat Harris said the "momentum" was on the side of her bid to be America's first woman president. Deadlock But the polls suggest a different story on the eve of Election Day – total deadlock in surveys nationally and in the seven swing states where the result is expected to be decided. The world is anxiously watching the election, which is set to have profound implications for conflicts in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine, and for tackling climate change. Both sides say they are encouraged by early turnout numbers, with over 78 million people having voted already, around half of the total number of ballots cast in 2020. No middle ground The closeness of the 2024 White House race reflects a deeply divided United States, as it chooses between two candidates whose visions could scarcely be more different. Media outlets and political parties have poured millions of dollars into advertising campaigns that leave little room for middle ground. This stark divide is a reflection of the American political system, where the winner-takes-all approach often marginalises third-party candidates and reinforces the dominance of the two major parties. US elections: Who are the running mates for the key candidates? As election day approaches, the spotlight has fallen on undecided voters who may ultimately tip the scales in this tight race. Campaign volunteers have been working tirelessly, engaging directly with potential voters in an effort to sway opinions and drive turnout. To discuss what is at stake, RFI's Jan Van der Made spoke to analyst J. Wesley Leckrone, Chair Political Science Widener University, Daniel Hopkins, Political Scientist University of Pennsylvania and Daniel Laurison, Associate Professor Sociology at Swarthmore College and former campaigner for Barack Obama.

With the presidential election in the United States only days away, Turkey is watching the vote closely. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan enjoyed a close working relationship with Donald Trump when he was president, analysts warn that a second term for Trump wouldn't come without risks for Ankara. Erdogan has avoided commenting on the US election, but Ankara sees the outcome of the 5 November vote as key for Turkish-US relations. Each of the contenders, Vice-President Kamala Harris and Trump, are expected to take significantly different approaches to Turkey's long-time leader. "During the past Trump presidency, the political relationship at the highest level between Erdogan and Trump was a strong one," says Sinan Ulgen, head of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an Istanbul think tank. Ties with President Joe Biden have been notably less friendly, however, if Harris were to win the relationship with Erdogan is likely to be a much more shallow one, Ulgen believes. Face-to-face time Erdogan met Trump nine times during his 2017-21 presidency, including on a state visit to Washington. In contrast, he met Biden only briefly on the sidelines of international summits, with US-Turkish relations mainly conducted at foreign-minister level. "Erdogan has been in power for more than 20 years and Biden is the only US president who has refused to meet him in an official capacity, either in the US capital or in the Turkish capital," says international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul's Kadir Has University. "For Erdogan, leader-to-leader talks are key to achieving his goals. And probably, he thinks deep down that he can sort out many things through personal contact, connections or personal engagement." Such interaction, especially with the most powerful person in the world, is also seen as vital to Erdogan's status at home. "It's very important for his domestic standing and legitimacy," says Asli Aydintasbas, a political commentator and visiting fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. "He has built a personalised system but also convinced voters, particularly his base, that he is a consequential leader, that Turkey is rising, that he is very important, he is on par with the US president and the Russian president, that everybody is looking up to Erdogan." Turkey and Russia closer than ever despite Western sanctions Lack of chemistry? Aydintasbas questions how easy it would be for Erdogan to develop a relationship with Harris, even if she were ready to engage more directly than Biden. "I cannot imagine what type of chemistry Harris and Erdogan would have. They don't come from similar backgrounds. It's difficult to imagine the two developing a very close personal relationship, to be honest," the analyst says. Erdogan has often spoken warmly of his relationship with Trump – despite the fact he got hit by sanctions during his time in the White House over the detention of an American pastor, prompting the Turkish lira to crash in 2018. Trump once even vowed to "totally destroy and obliterate" the Turkish economy over Turkey's threats to attack US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces. "We have memories of the threats and sanctions," warns Murat Aslan of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research in Ankara. Invoking the 2018 crisis, Aslan said: "Rather than words, I think deeds are important." Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economy High-risk candidate The Middle East is another potential sticking point. Trump is calling for more support for Israel in its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and analysts say differences could again emerge between the US and Turkish leaders. "Trump's approach to the Middle East and the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel could actually escalate the tension in the Middle East to the extent that a regional war could be unavoidable," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who directs the...

A year of war in Gaza has undermined international law and threatens to make the strip uninhabitable, according to the United Nations special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese. She tells RFI why she is making the case for Israel's offensive to be classified a genocide. More than 1.8 million Palestinians in Gaza are experiencing extremely critical levels of hunger, according to the UN. Seventy percent of crop fields and livelihoods have been destroyed during the Israeli military offensive. The war, which has claimed 42,000 lives in Gaza and left hundreds of thousands wounded, has also spread to the West Bank and Lebanon. Civilians as well as UN peacekeepers have been targeted by Israel's forces. "I used the word 'catastrophe' for the first time back in October 2023," Albanese told RFI, "when Israel had killed 8,000, 6,000 people in the first weeks of the conflict and destroyed entire neighbourhoods, bakeries, churches, and targeted UN buildings and universities. "This is not the way wars are conducted." Albanese was speaking as she prepared to launch her latest report on the situation in Gaza and the other Palestinian territories, which she presented to the UN General Assembly earlier this week. In it, she takes a long view of the current conflict, arguing that Israel's military actions form part of a systematic attempt to displace Palestinians that goes back decades – and which she calls a genocide. "Israel occupies that land, according to the International Court of Justice, unlawfully," Albanese said. "So Israel unlawfully occupies a territory, oppressing its people, who of course retaliate. Then they wage a war against them. It doesn't work that way." Hamas attack, one year on - a view from Gaza 'Emptying the land' Albanese acknowledges the deadly violence inflicted on Israelis by the attacks of 7 October last year, and she has advocated for the investigation and prosecution of crimes committed against civilians by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups. But she warns that the trauma of 7 October has deepened Israeli animosity towards Palestinians and spurred calls for vengeance, providing the government with an opportunity to escalate its actions in the occupied territories with the goal of making them unliveable. "As we speak, Israel is running extermination raids neighbourhood per neighbourhood in the areas that were already forcibly evacuated, ethnically cleansed of nearly 1 million people in northern Gaza," Albanese told RFI. "Only 400,000 people remained, who have been starved, abused and bombed. What the people in Gaza have gone through is really unspeakable, and now it is emptying the land completely." Hamas attack, one year on - a view from Israel Israel and UN at odds The war has brought Israel's already tense relations with the United Nations to a low point, with the Israeli parliament this week approving a controversial bill to ban the UN's agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA – considered a lifeline for Gaza – from operating on Israeli territory. Israel claims many of the agency's staff belong to Hamas or other terrorist groups, and accused some of them of involvement in the 7 October attacks. The UN says it investigated the allegations and identified problems with neutrality, but no proof of terror links. It warns that restricting UNRWA will have a devastating effect on aid supply chains into Gaza. More broadly, UN leaders have called for a ceasefire and denounced starvation, mass displacements, atrocities, war crimes and crimes against humanity. Albanese has proved an especially controversial figure, calling for the UN to consider suspending Israel as a member state over its actions. Her stance has drawn accusations of bias and antisemitism from Israel's allies, notably the United States, which cancelled a briefing she was due to give the US Congress this week. Washington and others argue that Israel has the right to defend itself – though...

The recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey, long-standing supporters of rival factions in Libya, offers a potential pathway to easing tensions in the North African country. Libya resumed oil exports this month after a pause caused by a dispute over control of the country’s central bank, which oversees oil exports. "This was a serious crisis," said Jalel Harchaoui from the Royal United Services Institute. "And while it's partly fixed, there are still issues that need attention." The row between Libya's two rival administrations which led to the temporary halt, was only resolved by intense negotiations, but Harchaoui claims the conflict's repercussions continue. Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in Africa "A lot of players, including armed groups in Tripoli, are trying to take advantage of whatever has happened over the last several weeks. So I'm not describing a scenario of war, but I'm describing a more volatile environment," he said. Turkish-Egyptian relations However, a recent rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey could offer hope of easing Libyan tensions. "We agreed to consult between our institutions to achieve security and political stability," pledged Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at a press conference last month in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Libya once was a point of Turkish-Egyptian rivalry, with Cairo backing the eastern Libyan administration in Benghazi of Khalifa Haftar and Ankara supporting the western Tripoli-based Government of National Unity. Now, Egyptian-Turkish collaboration is key to resolving the latest Libyan crisis. "Both countries can push the Tripoli-based government at least to accept something or come to the least terms that they can agree," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-Turkish government think tank. "So it's a win-win situation for both Egypt and Turkey." Economic crises With both the Turkish and Egyptian economies in crisis, the economic benefits of cooperating in Libya are seen as a powerful force behind the country's rapprochement and Libyan collaboration. Fighting between rival militias in Libya kills dozens "These two countries are very important to one another," said Aya Burweila, a Libyan security analyst "They've figured out a way to divide spheres and work together. Even in the east now, Turkish companies have cut lucrative deals, infrastructure deals, just as Egypt has. "So economy and money drive a lot of these political friendships and reapportionment." Ankara is looking to Cairo to use its influence over Hafta to support an agreement it made with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity to explore widely believed energy reserves in Libyan waters. Libya's stability at greater risk with turmoil in Niger and Sudan, UN warns At the same time, Cairo is pressing to remove Ankara-supported Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh of Libya's Government of National Unity. Despite differences, Harchaoui says Cairo and Ankara are committed to cooperation. "What has already been decided is that they are going to speak and they are going to speak on a daily basis," said Harchaoui. "And then at every crucial moment, they are going to make sure and Turkey, specifically, is going to make sure that Egypt is on board. "But we need more tangible results from the dialogue that has already been in place," he added.

Earlier this month, U.S. credit rating agency Fitch upheld its AA- rating for French debt, but shifted the outlook from "stable" to "negative." On 25 October, Moody’s is set to deliver its assessment. If France’s budget plans falter, the country risks a credit rating downgrade, which would drive up borrowing costs and further inflate the national debt, which currently stands at a staggering €3.2 trillion. On October 11, Fitch's decision to downgrade France's economic outlook to "negative" serves as a warning to Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who is struggling to push his 2025 budget through parliament. The credit agency's assessment signals a potential downgrade if the government fails to take swift action to improve public finances. France's fiscal situation appears increasingly precarious. The deficit, now at €167 billion (5.5 percent of GDP), could surpass 6 percent by year’s end. With national debt projected to hit €3.5 trillion, or 114.7 percent of GDP, France is far beyond EU limits. France braces for economic judgment amid political turmoil and record debt EU rules require member states to keep budget deficits below 3 percent of GDP and debt under 60 percent of GDP. Fitch predicts that the deficit will hover around 5.4% in both 2025 and 2026 due to ongoing political uncertainty and the challenges in implementing fiscal reforms. The agency believes the budget could pass before the year's end, but the government may need to make concessions to win support from opposition parties. All eyes are now on Moody's which will reveal its judgement on France's economy and credit-worthiness on 25 October. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Antoine Armand emphasised the government's commitment to improving the economy following Fitch's assessment, but will that be enough? RFI spoke to Erik Norland, Chief Economist with the Chicago-based CMEGroup about the possible scenarios France's economic planners are facing.

More than 400,000 people have fled to Syria to escape Israel's military operations in Lebanon, according to the United Nations. With the numbers expected to grow as Israel steps up its offensive, neighbouring Turkey, already home to the world's largest number of refugees, fears a new wave of people seeking sanctuary. Over 405,000 people – both Lebanese and Syrian – have crossed into Syria from Lebanon since the start of Israel's offensive, according to figures from UN refugee agency UNHCR. Approximately 60 percent are under 18, UN spokesman Farhan Haq said on Thursday, and most are struggling to meet basic needs. The returnees are mainly people who had sought sanctuary in Lebanon from the civil war in Syria, now in its 13th year. "In Lebanon, there have been nearly one million Syrian refugees just since 2011," says Metin Corabatir of the Research Centre on Asylum and Migration, an Ankara-based NGO. He warns this could be just the beginning of the exodus if the fighting in Lebanon continues, threatening to overwhelm Syria. "We are not talking only about Syrian refugees going back to Syria, but the Lebanese population is moving, crossing the border to Syria. And Syria would either try to close the borders or force them to go north to the Turkish borders," Corabatir told RFI. "This really would lead to a catastrophic situation for people, for countries and may pull Turkey into more tensions with Israel." Anti-refugee backlash People fleeing Lebanon have been arriving at refugee camps in north-east Syria, close to the Turkish border. But Turkey, already hosting an estimated five million refugees, including over three million Syrians, is facing growing public backlash over their presence. "Turkey basically cannot handle more refugees," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, an international think tank. Earlier this year, tensions spilled over into violence against refugees in the provincial city of Kayseri. The issue has become a significant political liability for the government, with opinion polls routinely finding large majorities wanting refugees to leave. Even if the country has the practical capacity to take more people in, "I don't see Turkey accepting a massive new wave of refugees", predicts Unluhisarcikli. Turkey's Syrian refugees face local hostility as economic problems mount Border barricades In the last couple of years, Ankara has constructed a wall along its border with Syria in a bid to prevent more refugees from entering Turkey. Murat Aslan, of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, believes such efforts will only continue as the war in the Middle East threatens to trigger a new exodus. "Turkey does not want any further waves coming from another region because Turkey is just experiencing and mending an economic crisis," he says. "Inflation is currently under control, and we expect a decrease in it. "What does another wave of refugees mean? A lot of spending, a lot of inflation, and other than this, societal insecurity. That's why Turkey will not tolerate another wave." But such a stance will likely be tested if Israel continues its offensive, creating more refugees and with them, the risk of Turkey facing a humanitarian crisis on its border. Turkey continues to host more refugees than anyone else, but for how long?

Turkey's deployment of an energy research ship accompanied by a naval escort to Somalia is the latest step in deepening bilateral ties. However, rising Ethiopian-Somali tensions threaten Turkey's substantial investments in Somalia, as Ankara's mediation efforts stall. With a great deal of fanfare, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the leaving ceremony of Turkey's energy research vessel Oruc Reis, which set sail this month to Somalia accompanied by two Turkish naval vessels. Somali energy deal The deployment of the Oruc Reis is part of an energy deal struck with Somalia and the latest step in Ankara's long-term investment in the Horn of Africa nation. "Turkey has its largest embassy in the world in Mogadishu. It has a military base there. The port of Mogadishu is controlled by a Turkish company, "explained Norman Rickelfs, a geopolitical consultant. "[Turkey] signed a defense deal (with Somalia) in February, a two-part defense deal, and then an energy exploration deal in March. So, Turkey needs Somalia and Ethiopia to play well together." The threat of a new conflict in the Horn of Africa has been looming since January when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia. The agreement gives Ethiopia secure sea access in exchange for recognizing the breakaway state, a deal condemned by Somalia for infringing on its territorial integrity. Turkey enters fray mediating Ethiopia and Somalia's high-stakes dispute Somalia, Ethiopia and Turkey Ankara which has good relations with Ethiopia, as well as Somalia has been mediating. But September's round of talks, during which Ankara had indicated an agreement could be reached, has been indefinitely postponed. The postponement follows Egypt signing a defense pact with Somalia in August. Last month, Egypt sent its first shipment of arms to Somalia in four decades. Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, an African studies professor at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, warns that Egypt’s military involvement complicates Ethiopian Somali reconciliation efforts. "There are also some hurdles on the way with some recent tensions, especially with the involvement of Egypt and its increasing relations with Somalia," claims Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu. Tepeciklioglu warns that the longer the Ethiopian-Somalia dispute continues, the greater the risk of contagion in an unstable region. "The shifting alliances in the region are also a source of problem, because most of the regional countries have strained relations with each other. And then they often have conflicting interests. So this might complicate the situation," explained Tepeciklioglu. Egypt's support of Somalia is the latest chapter in Egyptian-Ethiopian tensions. Those tensions center on Ethiopia's damming of the Nile River, which Egypt depends on. Cairo's position Cairo has strongly criticized the project, warning it poses an existential threat. "Egypt's military deployment to Somalia is a natural progression for an actor seeking to strengthen their hand in a regional competition," said Kaan Devecioglu of the Ankara-based think tank Orsam. However, Devecioglu says the priority must be to prevent current rivalries from overspilling into confrontation. "Egypt already has this strained relationship with Ethiopia due to tensions over the Nile River, which makes its presence in Somalia geopolitically sensitive. The issue is not that states are rivals but ensuring they are not enemies,' explained Devecioglu. Egyptian President Al Fateh Sisi discussed Ethiopian Somali tensions during last month's Ankara visit. The visit is part of rapprochement efforts between the countries. That rapprochement Ankara is likely to use to contain current tensions in the Horn of Africa. However, some experts warn Ankara's mediation efforts could be running out of time. "We see tensions escalating in the region, and we see both sides sort of trying to extract leverage and put pressure on each...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has used the United Nations General Assembly to criticise Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But as Erdogan tries to lead opposition to Israel, Turkey is finding itself increasingly sidelined in the region. At the UN, Erdogan again compared Israel to Hitler, calling for an "international alliance of humanity" to stop Israel as it did Hitler 70 years ago. However, such fiery rhetoric is finding a shrinking audience. "It's more conveying a message to their own base", said Sezin Oney of the Turkish news portal Politikyol. "There isn't an audience that really sees Turkey or Erdogan as the vanguard of Palestine rights anymore. On the contrary, that ship sailed long ago." Erdogan attempted to boost his image as a powerful regional player by meeting with the Lebanese and Iraqi Prime Ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. But Ankara is increasingly finding itself sidelined as a regional diplomatic player. "Ankara's pro-Hamas approach has only marginalised Turkey in the international arena," said international relations expert Selin Nasi of the London School of Economics. "So we see Egypt and Qatar receiving credits for their roles as mediators. And Turkey is locked out of international diplomatic efforts." Since Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel and Israel's subsequent Gaza campaign, Ankara has tried to position itself among international mediating efforts to end the fighting, given its close contacts with Hamas. Turkish youth finds common cause in protests against trade with Israel Mediation efforts "Turkey was asked by the United States to speak with Hamas people", said international relations expert Soli Ozel at Vienna's Institute for Human Studies. However, Ozel says the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran denied Erdogan his diplomatic trump card. "One big blow to Turkey has been the murder of Haniyeh, with which Turkey did have very close relations. For all I know, he may even have had a Turkish passport", said Ozel. "And I really don't think Turkey has any relations or contacts with Yahya Sinwar, who is officially and effectively the leader of Hamas". With Israel already alienated by Erdogan's fiery rhetoric along with Turkey imposing an Israeli trade embargo, Gallia Lindenstrauss of Tel Aviv's National Security Studies says Turkey has nothing to offer. Turkey flexes naval muscles as neighbours fear escalating arms race "There are two main mediators in this conflict: Egypt and Qatar. They're the two actors that have leverage over Hamas. Turkey, despite its very open support of Hamas, has very little leverage on Hamas's decisions," said Lindenstrauss. "So Turkey is not effective – it doesn't have the money to push Hamas in a certain direction, it doesn't have the political leverage over Hamas to push it in the right direction. In practice ...Turkey is not very efficient. "So I don't think it's a mistake that Turkey is not part of this [mediation] process." Ankara has been quick to point out that existing mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel have achieved little, with the conflict now spreading to Lebanon. However, some experts claim Ankara's diplomatic sidelining has a broader message of Arab countries pushing back against Turkey's involvement in the region. "None of the Arab countries would like to get Turkey involved in this process," said international relations expert Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University. "Turkey could be considered by their views as the enemy of Israel, but it is artificial. The Middle East Arab-Israeli conflict since 1948 has been an Arab-Israeli conflict, not a Turkish-Israeli conflict." Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral deals Regional ambitions For more than a decade, Erdogan has sought to project Turkey's influence across the Middle East, often referring to the years of Ottoman rule as the halcyon days of peace and tranquillity. But the...

In Turkey, a student-led campaign highlighting trade with Israel is putting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in an increasingly tight spot. While the president has officially declared an embargo over Israel's war in Gaza, youth activists are exposing ongoing dealings that risk embarrassing the government and crossing traditional political divides. In Istanbul's conservative Uskudar district overlooking the Bosphorus waterway, activists from the group 1,000 Youth for Palestine recently gathered to protest the killing by Israeli security forces of the Turkish-American activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi. But along with chants condemning Israel, the demonstrators also attacked Erdogan and his government for Turkey's continuing trade with Israel. "I am here to force the Turkish government to stop the oil trade with Israel and to stop genocide," declared Gulsum, a university academic who only wanted to be identified by her first name for security reasons. "This is not just a public demand. It's also a legal obligation for Turkey to stop genocide." Since the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, the student-based group has directed its protests at the export of Azerbaijani oil to Israel by way of a Turkish port. It also targets Turkish companies – many of which have close ties to Erdogan – that it accuses of circumventing the trade embargo by using third parties. Turkey talks tough on Israel but resists calls to cut off oil Unifying cause The group uses social networks to broadcast its message, getting around government-controlled media. The activists say they have received broad support that crosses Turkey's traditional divides of religious and secular. "When it comes to Palestine, it is a story that we all unite about," said Gizem, a university student and 1,000 Youth for Palestine member. "There are those who define themselves as socialists and those who define themselves as Islamists. There are also apolitical youth who say 'I don't like politics', but still join us." While Erdogan presents himself as a stalwart defender of the Palestinian cause, police are cracking down on the protests. One of the group's Palestinian members was arrested after activists disrupted a panel discussion on Israel hosted by the state broadcaster. She now faces deportation in a case that has provoked further protests. Images of police arresting headscarf-wearing members of the group further embarrassed Erdogan and his religious base. Protests escalate in Turkey over Azerbaijani oil shipments to Israel amid embargo 'Divide and rule' Sezin Oney, a commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news portal, says the group's diversity poses a problem for Erdogan, given he has often sought to exploit the deep divisions between religious and secular voters when facing attack. She argues that 1,000 Youth for Palestine's ability to bridge those gaps is indicative of a wider change in Turkish society. "It's actually portraying the current youth of Turkey – you don't have monolithic circles in the grassroots," explains Oney. "You have a mixture: hybrid groups of conservatives, conservative-looking, but very progressive," she says. "Such hybrid groups are coming together because of a cause, but ideologically or background-wise or social class-wise, they may be very diverse. "And that's something threatening for the government. Because the government is embarking on divide and rule." Persistent political headache Erdogan lost heavily in local elections earlier this year, a defeat widely blamed both on economic problems and anger over Turkey's ties to Israel. The 1,000 Youth for Palestine activists say they hope to continue to build on those results. "The reason for our success is that we put our finger on the right spot. We expose the hypocrisy of both the capitalists, the corporations and the government," claims Murat, a university student who belongs to the group. "People also saw this hypocrisy and thought that someone should speak out, and they...

Turkey is undergoing an unprecedented naval expansion, positioning itself as one of Europe’s largest naval powers. While some neighbours are alarmed, Ankara insists the build-up is defensive and meant to meet growing regional commitments. “We must have a strong and effective navy to live in peace on our lands,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after commissioning the latest of six planned submarines. Along with a new helicopter carrier, frigates and over a dozen warships under construction, this is part of Erdogan’s push to bolster the Turkish navy. “It fits Erdogan’s political agenda of exerting influence overseas, from Qatar to Somalia to Libya,” said Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. “For the navy, it means a greater role in the defence of the country – no longer just territorial, but forward defence from overseas.” New course The change has transformed the navy’s mission. “Turkish sailors used to sail off to sea, but they would come back on the same day to their home bases and spend the night in their homes. That's no longer the case,” Guvenc says. “The Turkish navy is evolving into a major regional power.” Turkey’s military presence abroad includes bases in Qatar, Libya and Somalia, with naval agreements in place. Ankara claims its expansion addresses growing threats around the region. “When you look at the conflicts in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Red Sea, they are all around Turkey,” said Mesut Casin, a Turkish presidential adviser and professor at Yeditepe University. He also pointed to Turkey’s NATO role: “The naval modernisation benefits NATO and the security of Western allies, especially in terms of oil and navigation security.” Ankara has been quick to flex its new naval muscles. Four years ago, Turkish warships allegedly targeted a French NATO vessel enforcing an arms embargo on Libya. Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet with a dozen new bilateral deals Regional concerns Greece, with longstanding territorial disputes with Turkey in the Aegean and Mediterranean, has voiced particular concern. Israel, too, has raised alarms over Turkey’s naval growth, including military drones deployed in Turkish-controlled northern Cyprus. “Some of Turkey’s naval moves, like the UAV base in Northern Cyprus, could be aimed at Israel,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "This doesn't mean again there will be a direct confrontation, but it does mean that it is something that the Israeli army has to calculate for." Greece is also modernising its navy in response to what it sees as the Turkish threat. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently reaffirmed the need for a “deterrent power” against Turkey. Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks Meanwhile, Israel's growing naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, including the deployment of advanced naval assets and joint military exercises with regional partners, is adding to Turkish concerns. "The Turkish military has begun to feel concerned about the deployment of its [Israel's] nuclear missile capable submarines in the Mediterranean," said naval expert Guvenc. “As long as they were in the Red Sea or Indian Ocean, it wasn’t a problem. But once they shifted to the Mediterranean, it became a potential threat.” Guvenc is warning that escalating regional suspicions risks spiraling out of control. “It’s a vicious circle. Turkey builds a new navy to address threats, and now its neighbours feel threatened by Turkey’s naval growth. This is how arms races start, and they don’t tend to end well.” Turkish shipyards are working at full capacity to meet the country’s growing naval demands. Analysts say this will likely only deepen fears and tensions with its neighbours.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited Ankara this week, signalling the end to years of animosity with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two leaders committed themselves to a new era of cooperation – but some observers question how long it will last. The Egyptian president received a full diplomatic reception, with military bands and horses parading the Egyptian flag through the streets of the Turkish capital on Wednesday. Erdogan did not hold back in welcoming a man he once dubbed a "brutal dictator", and signalled a new era of partnership between the two countries. "With our joint declaration, we confirmed our will to advance our cooperation in all fields, including industry, trade, defence, health, environment and energy," the Turkish president declared. String of bilateral agreements The two leaders signed no fewer than 17 agreements to deepen bilateral trade, diplomatic and military cooperation. The goal is to expand their annual commercial exchanges to over €13 billion in five years, from a little over €9 billion now. They also discussed their concerns linked to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the shared desire to see a ceasefire there – part of a wider trend of converging regional interests. Sisi's visit follows Erdogan's trip to Cairo in February, which resulted from years of efforts to mend damaged relations. Ankara and Cairo cut ties in 2013 after Sisi, then defence minister, ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi – Turkey's ally and part of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Turkey and Egypt turn page on decade of friction with show of friendshipQuestion of Somaliland Despite the decade of estrangement, trade between the two countries never ceased: Turkey is Egypt's fifth-largest trading partner, while Egypt is Turkey's largest in Africa. With the Egyptian and Turkish economies in difficulty, the need to increase bilateral trade is seen as a powerful impetus towards rapprochement and a driving force for cooperation. It could also ease tension in oil-rich Libya, which has been in a state of civil war for over a decade and where Cairo and Ankara back rival governments. Libyan security analyst Aya Burweila says that Libya has become an important arena for both countries. "Because the lines in the sand are so set – and each country has its sphere of influence – this has helped both countries realise that it's much more lucrative if they cooperate rather than fight each other," she told RFI. Sisi and Erdogan also discussed tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the breakaway state of Somaliland, following reports that Egypt has started deploying weapons to Mogadishu. The deployment is part of Egypt's bitter dispute with Ethiopia over its Grand Renaissance Dam, which Cairo claims seriously threatens vital water supplies from the Nile River. Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in AfricaRivalry paused, not ended? However, analysts suggest Egypt could also be seeking to challenge Turkey's influence in Somalia – in which it has heavily invested – as well as complicating Ankara's efforts to mediate between the Somali and Ethiopian governments. Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, a professor of African studies at the Social Sciences University of Ankara, acknowledges the danger – but predicts Erdogan and Sisi will initially seek common ground. "Both Egypt and Turkey can cooperate in Somalia, especially in terms of security," she observes. "They can implement joint anti-terrorism initiatives. They can combine their efforts in development projects. They can involve themselves in political stabilisation initiatives, and so on. "But they can also compete with each other for a more significant role and influence in Somalia." For now, though, most experts seem to agree that with the spectre of a wider regional conflict and increasing economic pressures, Erdogan and Sisi are fully aware that cooperation, rather than rivalry, is in both their interests.

Turkey is stepping up its efforts to mediate between Somalia and Ethiopia as tensions rise between the two Horn of Africa nations. This diplomatic initiative is part of Ankara's broader strategy to solidify its growing influence in this strategically vital region. Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan described August's second round of indirect talks in Ankara between his Ethiopian and Somali counterparts as constructive and positive. "We were able to focus on the details and technicalities of concrete steps that are important convergences on some major principles and specific modalities", Fidan said. "This constitutes notable progress." While there was no breakthrough, all sides agreed to meet again in September. Controversial deal Ethiopian-Somali tensions have escalated since January, when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway state from Somalia. Under the agreement, Ethiopia would secure sea access in exchange for recognising Somaliland, a deal condemned by Somalia as an infringement on its territorial integrity. "Ethiopia needs access to a coastline", said Dubai-based geopolitical consultant Norman Ricklefs. "It’s the second-largest country in Africa. It’s a booming economy. And, somehow, that deal needs to be made, but it’s not going to be easy because of the previous deal earlier this year with Somaliland." Ricklefs predicts that finding a solution will require considerable diplomatic finesse. "It’s not going to be easy to convince the Somalis to grant that [Ethiopian demands], feeling that they’re under pressure right now because of the deal that was previously done with Somaliland," he said. "But I think Turkey is probably best placed, as they have a very close relationship with both Ethiopia and Somalia." Somalia recently threatened to block access to Ethiopian Airlines in the latest bout of diplomatic tensions. Meanwhile, Egypt could reportedly deploy soldiers to Somalia, a move that threatens to further escalate and broaden tensions, given existing Ethiopian-Egyptian conflicts. Ethiopia and Somalia move closer to resolving Somaliland dispute Deepening influence The situation between Somalia and Ethiopia is expected to be discussed during Wednesday’s summit in Turkey, where Egyptian President Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are set to meet. Africa expert Elem Eyrice-Tepecikoglu from the African studies department of Ankara’s Social Sciences University said Turkey’s historical and deepening economic and military ties with both Somalia and Ethiopia give it an advantageous position in its mediating efforts. "Somalia has a very important place in Turkey’s Africa policy. Turkey has established its largest embassy in Somalia’s capital, and it also established its largest military training facility, again in Somalia," said Tepecikoglu. "But Turkey also has old and established relations with Ethiopia as well. There are several investments of Turkish companies in the country, and Turkey also signed a military cooperation agreement with Ethiopia. Reportedly, Turkish drones were used against the Tigray rebel forces." Growing military buildup in Azerbaijan and Armenia a concern for peace talks Economic, military stakes Earlier this year, the Somali parliament ratified a naval agreement with Turkey to protect its territorial waters and a deal to search for hydrocarbons. Turkey is second only to China in investment in Ethiopia, including selling its military-proven drones. Analysts suggest that there is more than diplomatic prestige at stake for Ankara in resolving Ethiopian-Somali tensions, given the region’s potential and geostrategic importance as a critical world trading route. "There’s a reason why the Horn of Africa has American military bases and Chinese military bases. The Japanese even have a base in that area. All of them think the Horn of Africa is a pretty significant region for global shipping," Ricklefs said. "It’s a region that has not...

Fears are rising that Azerbaijan and Armenia are entering an arms race, which could undermine US-backed peace talks and trigger a new conflict. Azerbaijan showcased its military might in a grand parade in Baku last year to celebrate its victory in recapturing the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave from Armenian-backed forces. Azerbaijan, buoyed by its oil wealth, is continuing its aggressive rearmament programme, heavily relying on Turkey for military support. “The Turkish defence industry and Turkish military equipment will be providing further arms to protect Azerbaijan," predicts Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University.” However, Bagci noted that Azerbaijan is also turning to another ally for advanced weaponry. “Israel is much better in this respect. Azerbaijan buys the highest technology from Israel, and Israel is providing it.” Turkish and Israeli arms played a crucial role in Azerbaijan's recent military successes, overwhelming Armenian-backed forces that relied on outdated Russian equipment. Armenia's response In response to its loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia is also ramping up its military capabilities, with France leading the supply of new, sophisticated weaponry. Paris argues that this support helps Armenia shift its focus away from Russian reliance and towards Western alliances. Yerevan maintains that its rearmament is purely for self-defence. “Right now, there is no military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan," says Eric Hacopian, a political consultant in Armenia. "The goal is to create deterrents to make any aggression against Armenia more costly. In the medium term, we aim for equality, and in the long term, superiority.” Stalled peace talks The rearmament comes amid stalled peace talks, with Baku concerned that Yerevan’s military buildup might indicate ambitions to retake Nagorno Karabakh. “The truth is our territory was under occupation, so we worry that in five, 10 years, Armenia will rearm its military, strengthen military capacities, and will come back,” warned Farid Shafiyev, chairman of the Baku-based Centre of Analysis of International Relations. Yerevan maintains that its rearmament is purely for self-defence. “Right now, there is no military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The goal is to create deterrents in the short run to make any aggression against Armenia far more costly than it has been in the past,” says Eric Hacopian, a political consultant in Armenia. “Two is to create equality in the middle term and in the long term superiority. You can’t have any other goal when your country is constantly under threat, or attack is the only way to respond to it." Hacopian also notes: “The moment Armenia can defend itself, then the game is up because Ilham Aliyev is not going to risk a war that he is not guaranteed to win; Armenia rearming means he is not guaranteed to win a war which he means he won’t launch one.” However, Hacopian acknowledges that the coming year will be dangerous for the region as Yerevan seeks to close the military gap with Azerbaijan. "Next year is the year of living dangerously because next year is the last year that they can do a major aggression against Armenia without having to face the consequences because the gap is closing. Once it closes, the game will be up,” he says. Ongoing tensions Earlier this month, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces exchanged fire in a border skirmish, underscoring the ongoing tensions between the two nations. Both Baku and Yerevan insist their military enhancements are for defensive purposes. However, Bagci warns that the arms race is turning the region into a potential flashpoint. “Armenia and Azerbaijan are like two children; they play with fire, and the house is burning, and everybody is asking the big powers why the house is burning and who has done it. They have done it together,” he says. Despite their rearmament, both Armenia and Azerbaijan claim to remain...

In a bid to break out of increasing international isolation, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week hosted Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas in Ankara – positioning Turkey as a key player in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Abbas received a standing ovation in the Turkish Parliament on Thursday, where he addressed an extraordinary session. Deputies wore scarves adorned with Turkish and Palestinian flags as a show of solidarity. With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan watching from the balcony, Abbas praised Turkey’s unwavering support for the Palestinian cause. "We highly appreciate Turkey's pioneering role under the leadership of President Erdogan for its courageous and unwavering positions in defense of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people to freedom and independence," declared Abbas. Increasing isolation Erdogan is attempting to position himself at the forefront of international opposition to Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza, even as Turkey finds itself increasingly sidelined from global efforts to resolve the conflict. China’s recent hosting of Palestinian faction leaders highlights Erdogan’s diminishing influence. “Erdogan was hoping to reconcile Palestinian factions, but China stole the spotlight and acted preemptively. China had more political clout over the parties,” Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics contemporary Turkish studies department, told RFI. Abbas’s visit to Russia on Tuesday further underscores the growing importance of other nations in efforts to address the Gaza conflict. Domestic message Erdogan’s invitation to Abbas also serves as a way to reinforce his pro-Palestinian credentials with his domestic conservative base. “He’s trying to keep his base intact domestically,” Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey’s Politikyol news portal, told RFI. “Once upon a time, Erdogan resonated with the Arab public in general. "The Arab Street, as it was called back then, and the Muslim population in general saw him as connected with international grassroots movements. But he doesn’t have that appeal anymore; he’s lost that appeal.” Turkey a bridge? Erdogan has long claimed to be a bridge between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. “This is an issue that Erdogan personally invested a lot of time and energy in,” said Selin Nasi. However, Erdogan’s influence with Hamas has waned, particularly after the assassination of its leader Ismail Haniyeh last month, and his replacement by Yahya Sinwar, who is relatively unknown in Turkey. "They cannot host [Sinwar], they cannot contact him, nor do they have the kind of relations that they had with Haniyeh. So they have to settle with Mahmoud Abbas at this point," Oney said. Abbas, however, appears to show little interest in Turkey's playing a larger role in resolving the conflict, and Erdogan's strong support of Hamas and his fiery rhetoric against Israel is increasingly isolating him from countries seeking to end the fighting.

China’s car giant BYD’s announcement to build a billion-dollar factory in Turkey represents a significant turnaround in bilateral relations. However, concerns persist regarding human rights issues and Turkey’s stance on the Chinese Muslim Uyghur community. In a ceremony attended by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, China's BYD car company signed an agreement to build a billion-dollar factory in Turkey. The factory will produce 150,000 vehicles annually, mainly for the European Union market. Analysts say the July deal marks a turning point in Turkish-Chinese relations. "The significance of this deal is Turkey would be considered as a transition country between China and the EU," Sibel Karabel, director of the Asia Pacific department of Istanbul's Gedik University told RFI. "This deal has the potential to reduce the trade imbalance, the trade deficit, which is a detriment to Turkey," he adds, "Turkey also wants to reap the benefits of China's cutting-edge technologies by collaborating with China." Sidestepping tariffs China's pivot towards Turkey, a NATO member, is also about Beijing's increasing competition for global influence, especially with the United States. Karabel says the planned BYD factory offers a way for China to avoid the EU's new tariffs on vehicles. Turkey is already a part of China's global investment strategy through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Beijing has shown interest in Turkey becoming a trade route from China to Europe through Ankara's Middle Corridor Intiative. But until now, such collaborations have until been just empty words, claims Ceren Ergenc a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies. Turkey set on rebuilding bridges with China to improve trade "When you look at the press statements after meetings, you don't see Chinese investments in Turkey, and the reason for that is because China perceives Turkey as a high political risk country in the region," Ergenc explains. One of the main factors widely cited for Beijing's reluctance to invest in Turkey is Ankara's strong support of China's Muslim Uyghur minority. Ankara has been critical of Beijing's crackdown on Uyghurs, offering refuge to many Uyghur dissidents. Their Turkish supporters fear Beijing's billion-dollar investment in Turkey could be part of an extradition deal struck during Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's recent visit to China. "There are rumors, of course, that the Chinese side is pressing for the ratification of this extradition agreement, that they would want Uyghurs in Turkey, some of them at least, to be returned to China to be tried in China," warns Cagdas Ungor of Istanbul's Marmara University, referring to people China considers to be dissidents or "terrorists". Common ground over Gaza Elsewhere, Ankara and Beijing are finding increasing diplomatic common ground, including criticism of Israel's war on Hamas. "If you take, for instance, the Gaza issue right now, Turkey and China, and even without trying," observes Ungor, "they see eye to eye on this issue. Their foreign policies align, overlap, and their policy becomes very much different from most of the other Western countries." Carmakers unhappy after EU hits China with tariffs on electric vehicles For example, Ankara welcomed last month's decision by Beijing to host Palestinian leaders amid an escalation of threats and bombardment by Israel. Such a move can provide common ground, Ungor suggests, and this could be the basis for future cooperation. "There are certain issues at a global level, at the regional level, that China seems to be a much better partner(to Turkey) than the Western countries," he concludes.

Joint military exercises between US and Armenian forces are the latest steps in Yerevan's efforts to shift away from Moscow. The potential reopening of the Armenian border with Turkey could also prove crucial – though it may ultimately depend on Armenia's rival, Azerbaijan. July saw major military drills in Armenia between Armenian and United States forces. "Politically, it is exceptionally relevant; they are four or five times larger than last year," explains Eric Hacopian, a political analyst in Armenia, who notes the range of US divisions mobilised for the drills. "It's not about peacekeeping." The military exercise, dubbed "Eagle Partner", is part of Yerevan's wider efforts to escape its Russian neighbour's sphere of influence, Hacopian believes. "These are serious exercises, and they were followed up with the news that there is going to be US permanent representation in the Ministry of Defence of Armenia as advisors to join the French who are already there," he noted. "Essentially, there is no other play but to join the West." France, Russia stand on opposite sides of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict Armenia is also seeking to reduce its economic dependence on Russia, pressing Turkey to open its border and providing a new gateway to Western markets for the landlocked country. Ankara closed the frontier in 1993 after ethnic Armenian forces seized the contested Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, with Azerbaijani forces recapturing the enclave last year, analysts say the opening of the border could now align with Turkey's goals to expand its regional influence. "The normalisation of the relationship with Armenia would allow Turkish policy in the Cacasus to acquire a more comprehensive dimension today. That's the missing element," said Sinan Ulgen, an analyst with the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a think tank in Istanbul. "Turkey obviously has very strong links to Azerbaijan and very good relations with Georgia, but not with Armenia," he explained. "And that's a predicament, as we look at Turkey's overall policy in the Caucasus." Leverage Washington is working hard to broker a permanent peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. "A deal is close," declared US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of July's NATO summit in Washington. Last week, Turkish and Armenian envoys held their fifth meeting aimed at normalising relations. However, with critical issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan unresolved, Baku sees Turkey's reopening of the Armenian border as important leverage. In principle, both Azerbaijan and Turkey are in favour, claims Farid Shafiyev, an Azeri former diplomat and now chair of the Centre of Analysis of International Relations in Baku. "However, we believe at this stage, as we have not signed a peace agreement, it might send a wrong signal to Yerevan and Armenia that we don't need to come to an agreement about the core issues – the mutual recognition of territorial integrity," he said. Can Turkey tip the balance of power in the Caucasus conflict? Meanwhile Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has developed close ties with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, and is ruling out opening the border until Baku's demands are met. Turkish arms were key to Azerbaijan's recent military successes against Armenian-backed forces. "Azerbaijan is where it is, in good part because of Turkey's military assistance, intelligence assistance and all that," argues Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University. But Ozel says Baku is dictating Ankara's Caucasus policy. "It is befuddling to me that Turkey cannot open the borders with Armenia, which Armenia both needs and wants, because of Azerbaijan's veto," he said. "Especially if indeed Azerbaijan, for one reason or another, believes that its interests are once more in turning toward Russia." With Azerbaijan's Socar energy company Turkey's biggest foreign investor, Baku...

A new law that threatens to cull millions of street dogs in Turkey has sparked nationwide anger. While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists the strays are a public health risk, critics say the move is an attempt to distract from bigger problems. Under controversial legislation currently passing through parliament, local authorities would be responsible for rounding up stray dogs, which would be killed after 30 days if an owner can not be found for them. Opponents claim as many as eight million street dogs could be at risk. "They are planning to round them up into shelters, which we call death camps," said Zulal Kalkandelen, one of the animals rights activists taking part in a recent protest against the plan in Istanbul. "For some time, there has been a campaign to fuel stray animal hatred," she declared. "Our people, who have been living with street dogs for many years, in fact for centuries, are now being brought to the point where all these animals will be erased." Street dogs have been a part of Istanbul life for centuries. The proposed legislation evokes memories of a dark chapter in the city's past when, in 1910, street dogs were rounded up and left on a nearby island to starve. It has provoked emotive arguments in parliament, with MPs jostling one another and exchanging insults – opening another deep divide in an already fractured political landscape. But President Erdogan insists something must be done to control stray animals that, he argues, have become a menace to society, causing traffic accidents and spreading disease. Humane alternatives Addressing parliament, Erdogan claimed he was answering the call of the "silent majority". "The truth is that a very large part of society wants this issue to be resolved as soon as possible and our streets to become safe for everyone, especially our children," he declared. "It is unthinkable for us to remain indifferent to this demand, this call, even this cry. Our proposals are no different from those of other countries in Europe." Mixed reactions as France prepares to simplify wolf culling rules Lawyer Elcin Cemre Sencan, who has helped organise protests against the proposed legislation, argues there are more humane ways to address people's concerns. "There is a group of people who are disturbed by these stray animals or who are afraid even to touch them," she acknowledges. "But even if there are these concerns, the solution is not to put the dogs to sleep. "Scientific studies have shown that sterilising animals, especially dogs, reduces not only their numbers but also attacks on people." Veterinary organisations have also pointed out that the cost of euthanising a dog is many times higher than sterilisation and vaccination. Diversion tactic? Some critics suggest politics could be behind the move. With Erdogan's conservative AK Party suffering heavy defeats in local elections this spring and Turkey grappling with near 100 percent inflation, opponents claim the Turkish president could be calculating that objections to his street dog legislation comes mainly from the secular opposition and hoping the issue will consolidate his religious base. "We know our problems in this country; the world knows our problems. There is an economic crisis, and we have human rights problems everywhere. But they want to change the main topics to these animals," said Eyup Cicerali, a professor at Istanbul's Nisantasi University, at a recent protest against the legislation. "They want to kill them all," he claimed. "We are here to protect our values, values of respect and dignity for human and animal rights. Life is an issue for all groups." According to one recent opinion poll, less than 3 percent of the Turkish public support the culling of street dogs. Some of Erdogan's MPs have even started speaking out against the law in the media, albeit anonymously. "This law makes us dog killers," one unnamed deputy was quoted as saying. Despite such misgivings, the legislation is...

Facing mounting domestic tensions over Syrian refugees, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reaching out to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad for dialogue. The initiative, reportedly supported by Moscow, is complicated by Turkey's significant military presence in Syria. Erdogan's call for talks comes after widespread riots against Syrian refugees in Turkish cities. He aims to facilitate the return of Syrians who have fled to Turkey since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. Soli Ozel, an international relations expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, says the situation is volatile. "The country is like a tinderbox regarding refugees, especially as economic conditions deteriorate. Syrians have become easy scapegoats, and there's widespread frustration with their presence, justified or not. This has become a significant political issue," Ozel said. He also stresses that key to any solution is a credible plan for the orderly departure of Syrian refugees to reassure the Turkish public. Erdogan's party suffered losses in local elections in March, largely due to growing hostility towards over three million Syrian refugees in Turkey and rampant inflation approaching triple digits. These factors have intensified pressure on Erdogan to address the refugee situation. Turkey vows to keep borders shut despite new exodus of SyriansRussia's position Russia, under Putin, supports Erdogan's diplomatic outreach, seeing it as a potential end to Turkish backing of Syrian rebels and a conclusion to the civil war. This aligns with Moscow's priorities, since resolving the Syrian conflict would allow Russia to redirect military resources to Ukraine. However, Turkey's extensive military presence in Syria complicates potential talks. Turkish forces are engaged in operations against Kurdish groups, which Ankara claims are linked to domestic separatists. The Turkish military also protects Syrian rebel forces along the border. Aydin Selcen, a former Turkish diplomat and now a foreign policy analyst with Medyascope, suggests that Ankara's willingness to negotiate could provide Syria with an opportunity to secure Turkish withdrawal. "Assad relies heavily on external support and even internal factions" he said. "Unable to forcibly remove Turkish troops, Assad's only option is to request their withdrawal as a precondition for talks." Despite this, Erdogan insists on maintaining Turkey's military presence until Syria can effectively secure its borders. Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies said: "Turkey's primary concern is preventing the border region from becoming a security threat post-withdrawal. Turkey needs assurances from Syria before considering troop removal." Turkey's Syrian refugees face local hostility as economic problems mountHumanitarian crisis? The news of Erdogan's pursuit of dialogue with Damascus sparked unrest in rebel-held northeast Syria, with protesters targeting Turkish bases out of fear of potential abandonment by Ankara. Erdogan maintains that any agreement with Damascus would safeguard returning Syrian refugees and rebels. However, Fabrice Balanche, a regional expert from Lyon University, warns of an impending humanitarian crisis. "If the regime regains control of rebel areas, most residents will attempt to flee to Turkey. Turkey cannot accommodate four million additional refugees," Balanche cautions. "These people are acutely aware that remaining under regime control, even with promised amnesties, puts them at risk of targeting by security forces, conscription, or worse. There's no real protection." Despite ongoing tensions in Turkey over the Syrian refugee presence, Erdogan is seeking Putin's assistance to soften Assad's stance on negotiations. The Turkish leader has proposed hosting a trilateral summit this summer, though there's been no positive response so far. The current situation highlights the complex interplay of regional politics, humanitarian...