International report

Facing mounting domestic tensions over Syrian refugees, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reaching out to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad for dialogue. The initiative, reportedly supported by Moscow, is complicated by Turkey's significant military presence in Syria. Erdogan's call for talks comes after widespread riots against Syrian refugees in Turkish cities. He aims to facilitate the return of Syrians who have fled to Turkey since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. Soli Ozel, an international relations expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University, says the situation is volatile. "The country is like a tinderbox regarding refugees, especially as economic conditions deteriorate. Syrians have become easy scapegoats, and there's widespread frustration with their presence, justified or not. This has become a significant political issue," Ozel said. He also stresses that key to any solution is a credible plan for the orderly departure of Syrian refugees to reassure the Turkish public. Erdogan's party suffered losses in local elections in March, largely due to growing hostility towards over three million Syrian refugees in Turkey and rampant inflation approaching triple digits. These factors have intensified pressure on Erdogan to address the refugee situation. Turkey vows to keep borders shut despite new exodus of SyriansRussia's position Russia, under Putin, supports Erdogan's diplomatic outreach, seeing it as a potential end to Turkish backing of Syrian rebels and a conclusion to the civil war. This aligns with Moscow's priorities, since resolving the Syrian conflict would allow Russia to redirect military resources to Ukraine. However, Turkey's extensive military presence in Syria complicates potential talks. Turkish forces are engaged in operations against Kurdish groups, which Ankara claims are linked to domestic separatists. The Turkish military also protects Syrian rebel forces along the border. Aydin Selcen, a former Turkish diplomat and now a foreign policy analyst with Medyascope, suggests that Ankara's willingness to negotiate could provide Syria with an opportunity to secure Turkish withdrawal. "Assad relies heavily on external support and even internal factions" he said. "Unable to forcibly remove Turkish troops, Assad's only option is to request their withdrawal as a precondition for talks." Despite this, Erdogan insists on maintaining Turkey's military presence until Syria can effectively secure its borders. Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies said: "Turkey's primary concern is preventing the border region from becoming a security threat post-withdrawal. Turkey needs assurances from Syria before considering troop removal." Turkey's Syrian refugees face local hostility as economic problems mountHumanitarian crisis? The news of Erdogan's pursuit of dialogue with Damascus sparked unrest in rebel-held northeast Syria, with protesters targeting Turkish bases out of fear of potential abandonment by Ankara. Erdogan maintains that any agreement with Damascus would safeguard returning Syrian refugees and rebels. However, Fabrice Balanche, a regional expert from Lyon University, warns of an impending humanitarian crisis. "If the regime regains control of rebel areas, most residents will attempt to flee to Turkey. Turkey cannot accommodate four million additional refugees," Balanche cautions. "These people are acutely aware that remaining under regime control, even with promised amnesties, puts them at risk of targeting by security forces, conscription, or worse. There's no real protection." Despite ongoing tensions in Turkey over the Syrian refugee presence, Erdogan is seeking Putin's assistance to soften Assad's stance on negotiations. The Turkish leader has proposed hosting a trilateral summit this summer, though there's been no positive response so far. The current situation highlights the complex interplay of regional politics, humanitarian...

Turkey's bid to join the BRICS trading group is the latest move in the Turkish President's delicate balancing act between Western and Eastern allies. The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Almaty, Kazakhstan, provided a platform for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet in person. Their encounter was marked by a display of cordiality, with both leaders appearing at ease and Putin emphasizing the significance of their bilateral relationship. Active engagement Putin, standing alongside Erdogan, stated, "We continue to actively engage on crucial matters of international politics." He further added, "Our communication is constant, and our respective ministries and departments regularly share information and align our stances on key issues." Erdogan was observed nodding in agreement with these remarks. Turkey set on rebuilding bridges with China to improve tradeHow Turkey's support for Ukraine is a double-edged swordAccording to reports, a notable topic on the leaders' agenda was Turkey's aspiration to join BRICS, an economic alliance comprising Russia, China, and several nations from Asia, Africa, and South America. This potential membership represents a significant shift in Turkey's international alignments. Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst at GlobalSource Partners, explains, "A core principle of BRICS is reducing the dollar's role in mutual trade, which aligns with Turkey's interests." He argues that BRICS membership complements Turkey's broader foreign policy objectives, stating, "The concept of a new platform fostering trade among geographically distant countries naturally appeals to Turkey and fits its foreign policy stance." Yesilada suggests that Turkey's BRICS bid serves an additional purpose: "It signals to Putin that Turkey intends to maintain and strengthen its growing commercial ties with Russia." This comes despite Putin's recent cautions to Turkey regarding its efforts to improve relations with its traditional Western allies. The Russian leader strongly supports Turkey's BRICS membership bid. Ceren Ergenc, a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, posits that Moscow views Turkey's potential BRICS membership as a strategic move to balance Beijing's increasing influence within the group. Turikey and BRICS Putin strongly supports Turkey's BRICS membership bid. Ceren Ergenc, a China specialist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, suggests this support is part of Moscow's strategy to counterbalance Beijing's growing influence within BRICS. Ergenc explains, "BRICS has become China's domain, with recent membership invitations primarily extended to countries China seeks closer ties with, effectively sidelining Russia and India as the group's other major powers." Turkey's pursuit of BRICS membership coincides with its stalled EU accession process, hampered by Turkey's non-compliance with the EU's Copenhagen Criteria on human rights. This impasse is reportedly affecting Turkey's trade relations with the EU. Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst, notes, "Erdogan's frustration with the EU's lack of progress on Turkey's accession and customs union update contributed to the BRICS bid." However, Yesilada argues that Turkey's interest in BRICS transcends Erdogan's presidency, reflecting a broader foreign policy strategy. He states, "This aligns with Turkey's overarching policy goal, widely supported by the country's policy establishment, of maintaining independence from any single political bloc, be it Western or Eastern." As Erdogan prepares to attend the NATO summit in Washington, where he's expected to reaffirm Turkey's Western security commitments, analysts view the BRICS bid as a clear indication that Ankara is diversifying its international partnerships beyond its traditional Western allies.

The EU on Friday congratulated Keir Starmer on Labour's election win in Britain, with European Council President Charles Michel calling it "historic". But Labour's landslide victory doesn't mean that London will turn back the clock on Brexit. Keir Starmer has pledged to "make Brexit work" and seek "an ambitious" security pact with the the European Union. But contrary to the hopes of many in the UK who may have hoped that London would return to the EU mainland fold, Labour is careful not to offend its pro-Brexit constituencies. Over the years, especially in the north of England, many voters shifted to the pro-Brexit ideas of the Conservative party, afraid that EU immigrants would take away their jobs. RFI talks to political scientist John Barry, of Queens University in Belfast, about how he thinks Brexit affected the UK economy, and if London will ever rejoin the common market. This interview was carried out online.

Istanbul police now have some of the world's most expensive sports cars – spoils of seized assets in a crackdown on international organised crime. It's part of Ankara's efforts to escape international scrutiny over money laundering as it seeks global investment. In the heart of Istanbul, onlookers gather around taking selfies of the police's latest addition to its carpool: a Ferrari. City police now boast some of the world's flashiest supercars, not only Ferraris but also Bentleys and Lexuses. They're the pickings of a nationwide crackdown on international organised crime involving narcotics smuggling and money laundering. Turkey's unique geography straddling Europe and Asia makes it an ideal centre for international crime. "Turkey is in between the continents. So once you want to transfer a commodity which is illegal, it may be drugs, etc, you must have a step here," says Murat Aslan of the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research, a think tank in Ankara. Gang links "Most criminal gangs in Europe or the United States or South America have links to the ones here in Turkey – and that is why police have started operations, especially focusing on the ones who have warrants or arrest warrants by Interpol. "It's a process, and Turkey is currently in the middle of it." Interior Ministry videos show heavily armed police breaking down doors in the middle of the night at luxury addresses usually associated with Istanbul's high society. Vast quantities of cash and guns are invariably recovered. Among those arrested are some of the world's most wanted criminals from Europe, Asia, and the United States, most connected to the illicit drugs trade, underlining Turkey's status as a hub for the European narcotics trade. Last week, Turkish police, with their Spanish and French counterparts, broke up a European Central American drug cartel, resulting in dozens of arrests. "According to Interpol and the Turkish police's narcotics department, Turkey has become a transshipment hub for Europe and the Middle East," says Atilla Yesilada, a Turkey analyst for Global Source Partners, another think tank. "There are huge amounts of money floating around here." Turkey set on rebuilding bridges with China to improve tradeCrime hub Yesilada says Turkey became a hub for international crime not only because of its geography but also because of the government's recent efforts to attract foreign currency to prop up the Turkish lira with a wealth amnesty. "Look at our wealth amnesty, bring cash, bring diamonds, we don't really care. Just check it at the border or deposit it in a bank, and we'll never ask questions. This never-ask-questions part is, of course, completely in violation of the spirit of the global anti-money laundering legislation," Yesilada says. Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, at a recent press conference on the crackdown, announced that over 1,000 arrests – including 50 people wanted by Interpol – had been made this year, along with over 3 billion dollars in seized assets. Yerlikaya says he's committed to ending Turkey's reputation as a haven for drug kingpins. "Thirty-eight mafia-type organised crime gangs, seven of which were international and 31 of which were local, were broken up," Yerlikaya says. "We consider drugs a global disaster in the Turkish century. Our main goal in the fight against drugs is to ensure that Turkey becomes an inaccessible and Prohibited Zone for drugs. We consider drug crime equivalent to terrorism." Turkey cuts trade with Israel but seeks role in resolving Gaza conflictTurkey grey-listed The crackdown follows the international anti-money laundering organisation the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) putting Turkey on its grey list of countries failing to combat global money laundering. "Commercial banks and global funds are reluctant to do business with a country that's still on the grey list because, you know, too many sanctions," warns Yesilada. Turkey's crackdown on...

Protests in Turkey are intensifying over Azerbaijani oil deliveries to Israel. Despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan imposing a trade embargo on Israel over its war against Hamas, the trade, which passes through a Turkish port, continues. Campaigners in Turkey advocating for a boycott of Israeli trade are focusing on Azerbaijan's oil supply to Israel via the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Oil protests Demonstrators from the group Thousand Youth for Palestine recently targeted the Istanbul headquarters of SOCAR, Azerbaijan's state energy company, splashing red paint over its walls. Students at Istanbul's prestigious Galatasaray University also protested against a speech by a senior SOCAR executive, accusing the company of having blood on its hands. Experts say Azerbaijan, a close ally of Israel, meets around 40% of Israeli oil needs, a trade that has not been affected by Israel's war on Hamas. "Until now, Azerbaijan has not stopped its oil exports to Israel. On the contrary, they are going as normal, and this again a manifestation of the reliability of Azerbaijan and that it is a true partner of Israel," explained Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "I would even say that since Azerbaijan opened an embassy in Israel just a year ago, trade relations have actually expanded," added Lindenstrauss. Trade with Israel Protests against Turkish-Israeli trade have hurt President Recep Tayyip Erdogan politically. Analysts say opposition to Israeli trade, along with an economic crisis, was a factor in March's local elections defeat of Erdogan's AK Party. Turkey cuts trade with Israel but seeks role in resolving Gaza conflict"Had there not been the economic crisis, probably they (Turkish voters) wouldn't also be so concerned about the trade with Israel," Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey's Politikyol news portal, said. "But the economic crisis somehow removed the rosy glasses, rose-colored glasses of so many people in Turkey, including the AK party supporters," Oney added. "So they started to see things as they are and criticize the government and even Erdogan directly." Following his local election defeat, Erdogan imposed an Israeli trade embargo, boasting that Turkey was taking the lead in standing up to Israel. However, with the Turkish president having close ties with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev and Azerbaijan's SOCAR energy company, Turkey's biggest international investor, analysts say Baku retains leverage over Ankara. Erdogan’s local election defeat reshapes Turkey’s political landscapeTurkey talks tough on Israel but resists calls to cut off oil"Over the past few years, the Azeri-Israeli relationship has been consolidated; it is a bulwark against Iran as well in some regards," Mehmet Ogutcu of the London Energy Club, a grouping of government and energy sector leaders, said. "Therefore, the Azeris, although I'm sure they are also unhappy with what's happening in Gaza as a result of the Israeli land forces attack, and they would probably impress on Erdogan not to go that far to stop this oil flow," added Ogutcu. Protests in Turkey against Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel are ongoing, prompting police to arrest organizers and thereby triggering further demonstrations. A mother of one of the detainees, addressing supporters outside an Istanbul courthouse, demanded to know why her son was detained for defending Palestine. The video of the speech went viral across Turkish social media. Analysts suggest that such expressions of anger can only serve to further undermine Erdogan's claims of leading international protests against Israeli actions in Gaza. "The Turkish government said that they stopped trade with Israel, but somehow, it's continuing in other ways," Sezin Oney of the Politikyol news portal, said "So I think the real culprit, more so than Azerbaijan companies or Azerbaijan's Aliyev, or other circles in Azerbaijan itself, [is] the...

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's visit to China earlier this month is the latest diplomatic effort by Ankara to become a strategic trade hub between Europe and China. But Beijing's suspicions over Ankara's support of Chinese Uyghur dissidents is widely seen as an obstacle. Bilateral trade and developing new trade routes were at the top of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's agenda for his recent China visit. According to Cagdas Ungor, an expert on China and professor of political science at Istanbul's Marmara University, Turkey wants to be a part of the shift in global trading towards the Asia Pacific region. "Turkey needs to rebuild all these connections in order to remain at the center of things, maintaining its bridge status between East and West," he explained to RFI. Ankara is seeking backing from Beijing of its "Middle Corridor" trade route, which would link China with Europe via Turkey. Until now, such efforts have made little progress, but Ungor says this could change due to the world economy resetting to circumvent sanction-hit Russia. Middle Corridor has been on the table between China and Turkey for a long time, Ungor says. Window of opportunity "The idea of it has become more popular now because of the Russian sanctions, and Europeans are now also interested in alternative channels. There's a window of opportunity," he says. But Beijing is critical of Ankara offering refuge to China's predominantly Muslim Uyghur minority. The Chinese have not forgotten that in 2009, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was Prime Minister, he described China's crackdown on Uyghurs as "near genocide". Beijing furious over damning UN rights report on Uyghurs in XinjiangThe international community, including the United States and the European Union, have also accused China of incarcerating tens of thousands of its largest Muslim minority in camps in an effort to strip them of their Muslim identity. Beijing has denied these accusations, saying the camps are designed to combat separatism and weed out Islamist extremists. Since then, the issue seems to have become water under the bridge, judging by the warm reception Turkey's diplomat was given on his China visit at the beginning of June. Analysts say Fidan used more conciliatory language on the issue during his trip which included a stop in Xinjiang, home to many Uyghurs. Respect for one-China policy Ungor says the the Chinese were "happy" with Fidan's visit, as it further underlined Turkey's support for China's one-China policy. "The official Chinese media focused on the fact that Turkey respects China's territorial integrity," Ungor says. "And Fidan's remarks on Xinjiang's economic development, social harmony, respect for cultural rights" made a good impression, adds Ungor. Turkey's pro-government media even praised Fidan for wearing a turquoise blue tie, the color of the Uyghur community and referring to the region's Turkic Muslim roots. Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economyHowever, some members of the Uyghur diaspora were alarmed by Fidan's visit. Uyghur leader Seyit Tumturk, the head of East Turkistan National Assembly accused the Chinese administration of "trying to legitimise its own genocide" by with Fidan's visit to the Uyghur region. Tumturk maintains that "Hakan Fidan saw what China wanted him to see, but no more," suggesting that if China had nothing to hide, then it should allow international independent observers to have the opportunity to go there "and visit not only places China says to see but also the back streets, to visit the households, and to determine the agony, pain, and torture there," he concludes. Wildcard Adding to Uyghur dissidents' unease over Fidan's China visit are growing rumors that Ankara is ready to acquiesce to Beijing's lobbying to ratify an extradition agreement held up in the Turkish parliament in the face of strong opposition. "The ultranationalist opposition claims that China got...

Turkish companies are emerging as significant suppliers of weapons to Ukraine and are supporting United States efforts to resolve Kyiv's ammunition shortages. However, this support is a challenge to Ankara's efforts to balance its relationship with Moscow and its Western allies. Turkey has managed to tread a fine diplomatic line by maintaining ties with both Russia and Ukraine since Moscow invaded its pro-Western neighbour in February 2022. At the same time, Ankara has improved its relationship with the United States and has even coordinated with them in arms production to help Ukraine. The United States' latest munitions factory in Texas, which goes online this month, uses the Turkish company Repkon's state-of-the-art equipment. The new plant is vital to meeting the Ukrainian army's current shortages and ultimately aims to meet a third of the United States's needs. Turkey analyst Sinan Ciddi of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies says Ukrainians are running low because they've been using the Allied-supplied Howitzers that require a certain kind of ammunition. France and allies launch 'artillery coalition' to bring more weapons to Ukraine"This has been the essential sort of weapon of choice that has prevented up until recently, the advancement, and recapture of Ukrainian towns by Russian troops," he tells RFI. "That Turkey is stepping into this is remarkable," Ciddi continues, "simply because Turkey has a vast ability not only to procure and manufacture, but it's a vital sort of supply line for the US, which is also actually starting to run low based on the amount of shells it has supplied the Ukrainian partner right." Source of tension The United States Ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake, praised the collaboration as a sign of the growing importance of deepening bilateral ties. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's close relations with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have been a source of tension between Ankara and Washington. Since the outset of Russia's invasion, Ankara has supported Kyiv but remained neutral, refusing to enforce Western sanctions against Moscow. Meanwhile, another Turkish company, Baykar, is building a military drone factory in Ukraine. Biden pledges $225m in fresh aid for Ukraine at Paris talks with Zelensky"It's a little bit risky to establish a factory in Ukraine under the war conditions," warns defense analyst Tayfun Ozberk. "It's very critical for Turkey, of course, establishing a factory in Ukraine – it has a political message, but it will not; I believe change Turkey's position in this war," added Ozberk. For Sine Ozkarasahin, an independent Turkish defense analyst, "Turkey's definitely walking on thin ice." Doubling down on support for Ukraine will surely test Ankara's policy of balancing ties with Moscow and its Western allies, she says. Agree to disagree Ozkarasahin maintains that this balancing act with Russia is very much Turkey's current diplomatic policy, which she calls "compartmentalisation, or "agree to disagree". It means that Turkey and Russia can have different agendas on ongoing war in Ukraine or the situation in Syria, but still collaborate in different domains, such as energy trade. "Ankara separates these things from each other, which forms one of the main pillars of its policy towards Russia and in the end, Turkey's a critical lifeline for Russia," she says. While Turkey's defense industry is increasing its support for Ukraine and Western allies' efforts to supply the Ukrainian military, Ankara remains a vital trading partner with Russia. Turkey agrees deal to clear Black Sea of mines that threaten Ukrainian exportsSinan Ciddi points out that the US Treasury has sanctioned Turkish companies supplying duel-use goods to the Russian military, including microchips, parts that go directly into the manufacture of high-end Russian weaponry that is being used against the Ukrainians. "Turkey is playing both sides of this," he says,...

Turkey's longest-running peaceful protest has entered its thousandth week. For decades, the "Saturday Mothers" have been holding silent vigils to demand justice for relatives who disappeared while being held by security forces. At Galatasaray Square, in the heart of Istanbul, a mother calls out for justice for a child who's not been seen for decades – since being apprehended by police. The Saturday Mothers, named after a similar campaign in Argentina, gather in this square to demand answers. They want to know what happened to their missing relatives, and to hold those responsible to account. On display are hundreds of photos of those who disappeared while being held by security forces. Among the youngest is a 13-year-old shepherd called Davut. Denials Ikbal Eren has been campaigning for decades to find the truth behind her brother Hayrettin's enforced disappearance. "Hayrettin Eren was detained at the Saraçhane crossing in Istanbul and taken to the Gayrettepe police headquarters, where he disappeared," Eren says. "Although we have five witnesses confirming his detention, they always deny he was held. We also saw his car in the yard of the Security Directorate." Even if 44 more years pass, Eren says he will not give up seeking justice for his brother and the others who are missing. Hayrettin vanished during military rule in the 1980s, but most of the hundreds of enforced disappearances happened in the 1990s at the height of the Turkish state's war against the Kurdish rebel group, the PKK. "Especially in the early '90s – '92 to '94 mostly – an enormous number of mainly men were arrested and never seen again," says Emma Sinclair Webb of Human Rights Watch. Armenian genocide remembered as Assyrians fight for acknowledgement of their plightJustice eluded Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised justice in 2011, when he was prime minister, after meeting with some of the Saturday Mothers. There were criminal investigations into those accused of being behind the disappearances, and even court cases, but all ended in acquittal. The state has cracked down on the mothers in recent years, deeming their protest to be subversive. Galatasaray Square is now permanently sealed off, and usually only a weekly token of 10 or so people are allowed in. "Those in power cannot bear to have these women and the relatives of the disappeared meeting every Saturday and presenting them with the crimes the state committed," said Sinclair Webb. "For years the authorities have done everything in their power to criminalise this vigil and those who have been involved in it." The thousandth week anniversary of Saturday Mothers, held in May, saw an outpouring of support across social media – and even a pop music video commemorating their struggle. Rock star Teoman recorded the song "Saturday Mothers", recalling the fight for justice in the face of intimidation and adversity. The song's video went viral across social media. Erdogan’s local election defeat reshapes Turkey’s political landscapeOngoing struggle With the Saturday Mothers campaign passing the thousand-week threshold, they're vowing to continue until they find justice for their lost relatives. "We are trying to explain that our disappeared are not abandoned; they are not orphans. We are trying to learn about their fate," says Birsen Karakoc, who's been searching for her brother Ridvan since the 1990s. "We are trying to understand why they were tortured to death. We want justice; that is why we are here every week. "For 30 years we have been here since the first week, and we will continue to be here." At the end of the 1,000th-week ceremony in Galatasaray Square, Birsen's brother Hasan places flowers on a sculpture celebrating the Turkish Republic. He calls out to onlookers to say: "Until all our disappeared are found and those responsible are brought to justice, we will never give up."

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi was laid to rest on Thursday, concluding days of funeral rites attended by thousands of mourners after his death in a helicopter crash last week. Experts say the tragedy may well increase tensions between Iran and Turkey, both vying for influence in the Middle East. Hundreds of thousands marched in Raisi's home town Mashhad to bid farewell ahead of his burial following processions in the cities of Tabriz, Qom, Tehran and Birjand. The 63-year-old died on Sunday alongside his Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and six others after their helicopter went down in the country's mountainous northwest while returning from a dam inauguration on the border with Azerbaijan. A huge search and rescue operation was launched, involving help from the European Union, Russia and Turkey before the crash site was located early on Monday. Iran’s President Raisi killed in helicopter crash, EU sends condolencesThe Iranian military said that a drone dispatched by Turkey had failed to locate the crash site "despite having night-vison equipment". "Finally, in the early hours of Monday morning, the exact spot of the helicopter crash was discovered by the ground rescue forces and Iranian drones of the armed forces," the military said in a statement carried by the official IRNA news agency. Meanwhile, on Thursday Iran's army said it has so far found no evidence of criminal activity related to the crash. Simmering tensions The high profile deaths come as rivalry continues to intensify between Iran and Turkey. "For Turkey, the future of South Caucasia, Iraq and Syria are critical for its national security. And here in these areas of Turkey, all face Iranian opposition against Turkey's interests," explained Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University. For example, the Turkish military is poised to launch a major offensive in Iraq and Syria against the bases of the Kurdish rebel group PKK, which is fighting the Turkish state. Ankara has repeatedly criticised Tehran for failing to support its efforts, while Iran is concerned about Turkey encroaching in areas it considers to be in its sphere of influence. Turkey's Erdogan targets support against Kurdish rebels during Iraq tripThe death of Raisi has brought to the fore bitter memories of the killing by the United States four years ago of Qasim Soleimani, the veteran head of the international operations of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. "These two important personalities had been increasing Iranian influence in the Middle East very strongly," observed Professor of International Relations Huseyin Bagci at Ankara's Middle East Technical University. Bagci says Turkey's diplomatic advantage will no doubt be stronger as Iran heads into presidential elections on 28 June. "I don't know if the new foreign minister and President will somehow get the same level of this influence because they will be mostly inexperienced people," he says. Internal fight for power Bagci suggests that a real internal fight for power will be problematic for the country because "Iranian society is much more dynamic and progressive than the regime. "There is a partnership between the clerics and the military. But these two institutions are also fighting amongst each other." However, if Iran's Revolutionary Guard increases its power, experts warn that it could also result in a more assertive use of Iranian proxies controlled by the IRGC in Iraq and Syria, which are often as odds with Turkish interests. Alagoz says that the IRGC's view of the region is very problematic because the Iran proxies are a problem for the future of the Middle East. "The overconfidence of the IRGC combined with political power will be a destabilising factor in the Middle East, and so Turkey will always be concerned by this issue." With Ankara and Tehran competing for power from Syria and Iraq to Sudan, analysts say the outcome of Iran's transition of power...

Greece and Turkey are stepping up rapprochement efforts, with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visiting Turkey on Monday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The trip is part of detente attempts after years of tensions centered on territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea. Monday's meeting follows Erdogan's visit to Athens last December, which was also part of mutual efforts towards bringing the countries closer. "I think it's one of the ways in which Turkey and Greece could add more new momentum to the diplomacy that has started," Berkay Mandiraci, a senior Turkey analyst for the International Crisis Group, said. "They've been actually engaged in quite intense diplomacy on different fronts for over a year now." Territorial disputes over the Aegean Sea – believed to have vast energy reserves – have brought the neighbours to the brink of war in the past. Both nations backing rival sides over the divided island of Cyprus has also thwarted previous rapprochement endeavours. Side-stepping issues Erdogan and Mitsotakis are predicted to avoid contentious subjects and are expected to take a one-step-at-a-time approach on areas of collaboration. Confidence-building measures under discussion include increasing trade, further developments of a recently expanded road at the Turkey-Greece border and ensuring visa-free travel to Turkish citizens for eastern Aegean islands. "I think they are all important in terms of people-to-people contact, building trust, increasing trade and also improving connectivity and energy cooperation," Mandiraci said. "Hopefully this will lead to the opening of a new round of negotiation on the Aegean dispute." Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are seen to provide further incentive to improving ties as analysts say both leaders realise that bilateral tensions will only exacerbate regional instability. "Look at what's happening in Israel, in Gaza and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Both sides want to limit their exposure to foreign risks," said political scientist Ioannis Grigoriadis of Ankara's Bilkent University. "Greek-Turkish relations had gone through a very difficult period until five years ago, but ever since the earthquakes that hit south-eastern and southern Turkey, both sides have declared their willingness to reduce tensions." Greece was quick to help Turkey after last year's earthquakes. But unless territorial disputes over the Aegean are addressed, the rapprochement is considered vulnerable – especially because both militaries are re-arming. Common ground "As long as they don't tackle [the Aegean Sea dispute] and they don't take the bull by the horns, things will go like a pendulum, backward and forwards," said Alexis Heraclides of Panteion University in Athens. "The Greek-Turkish relations in this region is the most complicated of relations. I'm not saying that it's impossible for them not to make a U-turn and get back to the default position of confrontation and mutual acrimonious accusations." But there is cause for cautious optimism given that Erdogan and Mitsotakis renewed their electoral mandates last year. "Both leaders are very strong domestically and this makes them less eager to listen to the sort of nationalist voices that exist in both countries that are more comfortable with a more aggressive attitude," said Grigoriadis.

Turkey has cut off trade with Israel as bilateral relations deteriorate over the Gaza conflict. The move follows domestic calls for a tougher stance against Israel, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking a more prominent regional role. The Turkish Trade Ministry announced Friday that all exports and imports with Israel have been cut until uninterrupted and adequate humanitarian aid is allowed into Gaza. The Israeli foreign minister, Israel Katz, was quick to condemn the move, saying it violated trade agreements and was the action was that of a "dictator". It follows Erdogan's high-profile meeting with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh last month. Domestic criticism Erdogan's actions are seen as an attempt to quell growing domestic criticism of his complicated stance on the war – on one hand maintaining trade with Israel, while on the other condemning the country's war with Hamas. "In order to convince conservative voters that there is no such thing as a hypocritical approach... they are taking a tougher stance and necessary measures," says Selin Nasi, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics. Nasi says Erdogan could further deepen Turkey's ties with Hamas, especially if cut theirs. "We know that Qatar has been facing a lot of pressure in the international arena because of its ties with Hamas," she points out. "Turkey might emerge as a potential candidate country to host Hamas if Qatar decides to send Hamas members abroad." Turkish government looks to regain ground by limiting ties with IsraelRegional cooperation? Erdogan's party was handed a thumping defeat in March local elections, which saw many of his traditional conservative religious voters abstaining or voting for opposition parties – a move blamed in part on ongoing trade ties with Israel. However, Ankara is seeking a wider role in resolving the Gaza conflict. Erdogan is also stepping up diplomatic efforts with Egypt after hosting Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry in April. Relations between Turkey and Egypt have been warming after years of tensions, and analysts say there's room for cooperation. "Both are very active in the rhetorical space in terms of their deep sympathy for the Palestinians in Gaza. At the same time, they maintain their diplomatic and security ties with Israel," says Jalel Harchaoui at the Royal United Services Institute in London. "Both are known – particularly Egypt, from Washington's perspective – for their direct communication line [with Hamas]. Both use that as a source of leverage vis-a-vis the West," he explains. Turkey and Egypt turn page on decade of friction with show of friendshipBut analysts warn Erdogan's public attacks on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu limit any mediating role for Turkey. "At some point, the government has to moderate its tone, to repair its dialogue with Israel, because as it stands Turkey is no longer perceived as an impartial, third-party actor that can take on a role as a mediator," says Nasi. She nonetheless believes there is room for Ankara to play a constructive role. "Instead of perhaps endorsing Hamas, Turkey has to shift to a more balanced position between Hamas and Fatah and perhaps put its energy and resources into reconciling different rival Palestinian factions." Washington visit postponed Erdogan this month blamed Iran and Israel for increasing tensions, a break from only criticising Israel. Analysts say Turkey's close ties to Hamas could counter Iran's influence on the group. However, Erdogan's overtures to Hamas were a factor in the postponement of a planned visit to Washington in May, which was blamed on scheduling issues. "It's impossible not to rule out Gaza as one of the reasons for the cancellation," said Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "I think at a time when people are talking about mass graves and there are protests all around US campuses, the Turkish president does not want to be seen...

A group of international activists are seeking to break Israel's blockade of Gaza with a flotilla of vessels carrying aid. But with 10 people killed by Israeli security forces in a similar mission 14 years ago, fears are growing that the latest flotilla could provoke a fresh crisis. The loading of medical supplies and food is underway on the Akdeniz, an old ferry boat that will lead the flotilla of three ships carrying over 5,000 tonnes of aid to Gaza. At a press conference, the flotilla's organisers, a coalition of international and Turkish humanitarian groups, claimed the flotilla is not just about delivering aid. "We hope to break the illegal naval blockade of Gaza that Israel has had on it for decades," Ann Wright of US Boat to Gaza explained to RFI. Wright acknowledged the aid they plan to deliver will do little to alleviate the humanitarian crisis but hopes it will open the door to more assistance. "We hope to certainly bring food and medicines that are needed by the people of Gaza. But it's a small drop in the bucket. We're calling for the border of Rafah to be opened, where tons of food are waiting. It's criminal that the world has not forced the entry of these trucks into Gaza." Wright said the issue was being forced because "people that are starving and suffering genocide must have assistance". If the governments won't act, "we, the citizens will", she said. Flotilla in 2010 In 2010, ten people died the last time a flotilla sought to break Israel's Gaza blockade. When Israeli commandos intercepted the Mavi Marmara, which was leading the flotilla, activists said they were aware of the dangers they faced, but given the humanitarian crisis in Gaza it was a risk worth taking. France condemns killing of Gaza NGO workers as US pressed to toughen stance with IsraelTurkish court indicts Israeli soldiers two years after flotilla raid"We are conscious that it's not a mission without any danger," said Nima Machouf is with the group, Canada Boat to Gaza. "But the danger and the horror is part of the horror that we want to denounce that it is faced by Palestinian people. Gaza people need medical support and need food." Flotilla participants are given lessons on how to de-escalate a possible confrontation with Israeli forces. There has been no comment from Israeli officials. Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Avi, warns the risks are real given the tensions in the region. "Both on the Israeli side and on the Turkish side, there is an understanding of how dangerous things might get out of hand. So I think there will be caution, both from the Turkish side and the Israeli side," said Lindenstrauss. "But obviously, this is a very, very intense time now in Israel. And, also, I would be very careful, and hope that, the authorities are on both sides are aware of what they need to do to make sure that this will not escalate into violence." Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is likely to have the final say on whether the flotilla will leave, has not commented on the mission. But Erdogan met with Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh last Saturday, in which humanitarian aid to Gaza was discussed – a meeting Israel condemned. Whatever risks flotilla organisers say they are determined to deliver aid to Gaza. "Of course, we are worried, but, we think that, the time is now to act," said Torstein Dahle, a former Norwegian parliamentarian of Ship to Gaza Norway. But Dahle says the flotilla is looking for international protection. "We demand support from national governments, from everybody who has influence on this matter, to facilitate the supply of humanitarian aid to the starving people of Gaza," he said.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Iraq on Monday for the first time in 12 years. He'll be seeking support for Ankara's war against Kurdish rebels in Iraq as well as deeper economic ties. With Turkish forces continuing their build-up for a major offensive against the Kurdish rebel group the PKK, enlisting Iraq's support is expected to top Erdogan's agenda in Baghdad. The PKK has for decades used Iraqi territory to wage war against the Turkish state. Erdogan's visit is part of a new approach to Baghdad in fighting the PKK. "Turkey wants to start a comprehensive strategy that has an economic, social, and security base," said Murat Aslan, a senior security analyst for the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, an Ankara-based think tank. "In the meantime, expanding the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces may make Iraq much safer, and Turkey may feel more secure." Breakthrough Last month, Ankara achieved a diplomatic breakthrough when Baghdad banned the PKK. Erdogan will have also leverage when he visits Iraq. Iraq is suffering a severe drought and Baghdad has repeatedly called on Ankara to release more water from dams controlling rivers serving Iraq. This week, Erdogan said he is ready to consider Baghdad's pleas. "One of the most important agenda items of our visit is the water issue," Erdogan told reporters. "Baghdad has made some requests regarding water and we are working on these issues. "We will make efforts to resolve this issue with them. They already want to resolve this matter. We will take steps in this direction." Bilateral trade Deepening bilateral trade is also a key part of the Turkish leader's visit. Ankara seeks to increase international transit through Iraq as part of a planned new trade route between China and Europe. "The main backbone of this upcoming presidential visit to Iraq, to Baghdad and Erbil, will be the new so-called development road," said Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in Iraq. "It will connect the port of Basra to the Turkish border, to Habur, or to a new border gate. Perhaps it will have a railroad, and then parallel to it, there will be a highway. And that will be an oil and gas pipeline." Erdogan also said he may visit Erbil, the capital of semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, with whom the Turkish leader has developed close ties. However, Iran could thwart the goal of expanding Turkish influence in Iraq. "In Baghdad, the sun does not shine without the approval of Iran, of course," warned Selcen, who works as a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news portal. "So how will Ankara be able to align all these stars and build a capacity to cooperate with it? It's still debatable to me, and it looks unrealistic to me." Balance However, some experts say Baghdad is looking to Ankara to balance Tehran's influence, especially as speculation grows over the withdrawal of United States forces from Iraq, one of the few checks to Iran. "My hunch is that the Iraqi government wishes to free itself at least somewhat from the grip of Iranian influence and Turkey can be a balancer," said Soli Ozel, who teaches international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University. "I think Turkey would like to be a balancer here because Turkey, just like every other country in the region, is not all that happy with the kind of power that Iran has in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen."

The Turkish government has announced restrictions on Israeli trade, along with the suspension of scheduled flights to Israel. The moves come in the aftermath of a shock defeat for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party in nationwide local elections, in which the opposition targeted trade with Israel amid growing condemnation over the war in Gaza. Turkish Airlines announced that it will not resume flights to Israel until March next year. At the same time, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced sanctions on Israel after aid deliveries to Gaza were blocked by Israel. "We have submitted our request to join this aid operation with cargo planes belonging to our air force. We learned today that our request – which had been approved by Jordanian authorities – was rejected by Israel," Fidan told a press conference. "There can be no excuse for Israel preventing our attempts to send aid from the air to our Gazan brothers who are fighting hunger. In response to this situation, we have decided to take a series of new measures against Israel," he said. Ankara has banned the export of 54 products to Israel, including aviation fuel, steel, and cement. Fidan said the export ban would remain in force until Israel declares a ceasefire and allows aid to be delivered unhindered. Turkey under fire after declaring Hamas a 'liberation' groupIran leader to visit Turkey as rapprochement continues over Gaza war'Hypocritical stance' Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz condemned the Turkish sanctions, accusing Ankara of supporting Hamas, and warned of retaliation. The trade restrictions come amidst growing criticism in Turkey of the ruling AKP party's stance of condemning Israel's war on Hamas but maintaining trade relations, which the opposition claims supports the Israeli military war effort. The government's stance had become untenable, argues Soli Ozel, a lecturer in international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University. There is "pressure from the public over this hypocritical stance on Israel", he says. "You have all these AKP-related businesses or AKP politicians very closely, intimately trading with Israel and stuff. They [the government] had to respond somewhat; they had to show that they were doing something." Suspending Turkish Airlines flights was the "best, most effective, and most visible way of doing it", according to Ozel. "I think there must be over 30 daily flights, and this was supposed to be one of the most profitable lines that Turkish Airlines operate." Electoral meltdown Last month, President Erdogan's AKP suffered its worst electoral defeat to date in nationwide local elections. The Islamist Yeniden Refah Party – led by Fatih Erbakan, son of Erdogan's former political mentor Necmettin Erbakan – targeted the AKP's religious base, focusing his campaign on condemning the Turkish president for continuing to trade with Israel. "Fatih Erbakan is once again an important figure apparently," observes Istar Gozaydin, a specialist on Turkish religion and state relations at Istanbul's Istinye University. "I think the sort of end is near for AKP, but I guess it will be replaced by the Yeniden Refah Party," he adds. Crucial relations Protests in Turkey are continuing against relations with Israel. However, Israeli analysts say trade and travel are vital to maintain bilateral ties at times of diplomatic tension. "It's unprecedented; there's for so long no flights from Turkey to Israel and from Israel to Turkey, and that's a damage to the relationship," warns Gallia Lindenstrauss, an expert with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "Also for business relationships, it's very important to have a regular transport route." With spy raids, Turkey warns Israel not to seek Hamas revenge on Turkish soilTurkey talks tough on Israel but resists calls to cut off oil"There were things that kept the relations going, even though the political relations were in crisis," she explains. "And one...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's worst electoral defeat in nationwide municipal elections has changed Turkey's political landscape. However, the Opposition's victory came at an awkward time. Turkey's Western allies were looking to strengthen ties with the Turkish President. Turkey's main opposition CHP (Republican People’s Party) gains in nationwide local elections are a significant reversal of the party's fortunes after Erdogan's resounding reelection last May. "After the opposition's loss in the May elections, everybody thought the opposition was in a state of despair," explains Can Selcuki, head of Istanbul polling firm Economics Research. "But that doesn't seem to be the case, and it's a turning point for the Turkish political landscape. "It's the first time since 1977 that CHP has managed to come out number one in the popular vote." Threat of authoritarianism With much of the media under his control and the judiciary targeting dissent, critics claim Erdogan's grip on power is tightening. Addressing supporters on election night Ekrem Imamoglu, the re-elected CHP mayor for Istanbul who Erdogan personally tried to unseat, claimed his victory was a stand against the global threat of authoritarianism. "Today is a pivotal moment not only for Istanbul, but for democracy itself. As we celebrate our victory, we send a message that will reverberate worldwide,” Imamoglu told thousands of jubilant supporters. "Democracy's decline is now ending," continued the mayor, "Istanbul stands as a beacon of hope, a testament to the resilience of democratic values in the face of growing authoritarianism." Deepfake videos used in local elections in Turkey as Erdogan battles for IstanbulTurkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries uProsecutor seeks prison terms for alleged PKK members on trial in ParisMuted reactions Despite this,Turkey's Western allies' response to the CHP's resounding victory was muted. "There were no congratulations extended, even to Turkey's democracy, let alone to the opposition itself," Sezin Oney, a commentator for Turkey's Politikyol news portal, said. “[This] is a big contrast compared to the May elections because right after the May elections, the Western leaders, one after the other, extended their congratulations to Erdogan. "So there is a recognition that Erdogan is here to stay, and they don't want to make him cross. And given that there is the Ukraine war on one side and the Gaza war on the other, they want a stable Turkey.” Turkey's location, bordering the Middle East and Russia, makes Ankara a critical ally for Europe and the United States in international efforts to control migration and contain Russia. Ahead of the March polls, Erdogan had been engaged in rapprochement with his Western allies, with Washington even inviting the Turkish President for a summit in May. However, Erdogan could still pose a headache to his Western allies as he ramps up his nationalist rhetoric in the aftermath of his defeat. "We are determined to show that terrorism has no place in the future of Türkiye and the region," Erdogan said Thursday. "With the recent elections, this determination has been further strengthened." Massive military offensive Meanwhile, Erdogan has warned that his army is poised to launch a massive military offensive into Northern Iraq and Syria against the Kurdish group PKK, including affiliates that work with American forces in fighting the Islamic State. A crackdown on the PKK, analysts say, will play well with conservative nationalist voters. Those voters were the ones with which the opposition scored its biggest successes in Central Turkey – a region known as Anatolia - for the first time in a generation. "CHP has never been successful in those places before. These are places that are considered to be religiously conservative, or at least conservative," Istar Gozaydin, a Turkish religion and state relations expert at Istanbul's Istinye University,...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to end the threat posed by Kurdish rebel group the PKK, which has been fighting Turkey for decades. As Turkey prepares to launch a major military operation against the organisation in Iraq, it is looking to other governments in the region for support. Turkish forces have been carrying out military operations in northern Iraq for the last two years against bases of the PKK, which has been fighting for Kurdish minority rights in Turkey for decades. But Erdogan is now vowing to permanently end the threat posed by the PKK and its affiliates in neighbouring Syria. "We have preparations that will give new nightmares to those who think that they will bring Turkey to its knees with a 'Terroristan' along our southern borders," the Turkish president bellowed earlier this month. According to Mesut Casin, a presidential adviser and professor of international politics at Istanbul's Yeditepe University, the military operation is expected to take aim at PKK targets along the more than 300km border that Turkey shares with Iraq. "By securing the Iraq border, Turkey is expected to create a 40km new security corridor, similar to the one in Syria," he said. But Casin also stressed that, to end the PKK threat, Ankara is looking beyond military means to a new model of military and diplomatic cooperation with the leaders of Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan. Regional cooperation Ankara got a boost in its war against the PKK this month when Baghdad banned the Kurdish group. Erdogan is also developing close ties with the leadership of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan regional government in Erbil. Such cooperation is seen as vital to Ankara's goal of eradicating the PKK threat. "Turkey will focus on the capacity of Iraqi security forces, together with the Kurdish regional government's Peshmerga [Iraqi Kurdish soldiers]," explained Murat Aslan, an analyst with Turkish think tank the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research. "Turkey wants a full encirclement of all PKK members in Iraq and then to destroy them, neutralise them," Aslan said. New leverage In April, Erdogan is scheduled to visit both Erbil and Baghdad, where the PKK is expected to top the agenda. Enhanced bilateral trade and increasing international transit trade through Iraq to Turkey is seen as giving Erdogan new leverage with Baghdad. "The carrot is the new so-called 'Development Road', which will connect Basra port to to the Turkish border, to Habur or to a new border gate," said Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in Iraq. "Perhaps it will have a railroad, then a parallel highway, which will bring billions of US dollars to Baghdad's coffers," continued Selcen, now a regional analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news portal. "For that project to be realistic, there should be stability and security in Iraq. So in a way, Ankara wishes to repackage the combat against PKK within that project." France becomes first EU country to open visa service in Mosul, IraqIran question However, analysts predict Iran's cooperation will also be needed, given that the PKK headquarters are located in the mountainous Qandil region. "Why is Iran important? Because the Qandil mountains are not only in Iraq. They are divided between Iran and Iraq," explained analyst Aslan. Four decades later, veterans of the Iran-Iraq war still can't forget"Whenever an operation is planned and implemented in the region, [the PKK] go to Iran, enjoy a safe haven, and come back," he said. "So this campaign should be complemented by Iranian efforts, but it's not guaranteed. We will see what happens." With the rivalry between Turkey and Iran increasing across the region, Tehran may be reluctant to accommodate Ankara's demands. That could add to ongoing bilateral tensions, giving the PKK room to escape the tightening Turkish grip.

A naval agreement between Turkey and Somalia positions the Turkish navy in a strategically vital region, underlining Ankara's growing ambitions at sea. But analysts warn that the deal threatens to escalate tensions with Somalia's neighbour, Ethiopia. Under a ten-year defence agreement ratified earlier this month, the Turkish navy will help protect Somalia's territorial waters and facilitate training and equipment for the Somali navy. The deal is just the latest step in Ankara's deepening relationship with Mogadishu. "Not only is this the location of Turkey's largest international military base, it's also the location of Turkey's largest embassy in the world," explains Norman Ricklefs, chair of multinational consultancy group Namea. "This shows the importance Turkey has placed on Somalia, and rebuilding Somalia as a major state in the Horn of Africa, and making Somalia's future success part of Turkey's broader strategic goals in eastern Africa in the Red Sea region," he says. Turkey also signed an energy exploration deal with Somalia this month. The East African country is believed to have major oil and gas reserves both on land and within its territorial waters. Blue-water navy Experts see the deepening of ties with Somalia as part of growing international competition for influence in this strategically vital region. "This will provide Turkey an opportunity to increase its influence in the Horn of Africa," says Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu, an associate professor of African studies at Ankara's Social Sciences University. "Because all those external countries – Gulf countries, Western countries... even Japan – have bases in Djibouti, they are all vying to increase their development in the region, especially for economic purposes. So this is also an opportunity for Turkey," she says. The Somali deal comes as Ankara rapidly expands its navy's so-called "blue-water" capabilities – the ability to operate on the open oceans, far from the country's home ports. Turkey has built up a fleet of energy research ships and a growing navy. "[Naval expansion] focuses on the projection of Turkish military capacity in the maritime domain – both in protecting its own exclusive economic zones and waters, while also helping its allies and partners to do the same," explains Sine Ozkarasahin, an independent defence analyst. "And Somalia has been facing an increased threat of piracy." Tensions with Ethiopia Turkey's deepening military ties with Somalia come as the Horn of Africa nation faces tension with its neighbour, Ethiopia. In January, Ethiopia infuriated Somalia by signing an agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland, giving Addis Ababa long-desired sea access. But Mehmet Ozkan of the Turkish National Defence University says Ankara is well placed to contain any fallout, given its ties with Ethiopia. "Military cooperation, personal cooperation, the personal relationship between the leaders – I think relations are pretty good," he says. "Because in the region everybody is looking for security cooperation, and it's same for Ethiopia... Turkey is a security provider for Ethiopia as well." Turkey and Italy consider teaming up to seek new influence in Africa'Drone diplomacy' With Turkish-made military drones widely used by both the Ethiopian and Somali militaries in their wars against insurgencies, Ankara's so-called "drone diplomacy" has been instrumental in balancing its relations with rivals. "Turkey has also probably supplied some drones to Somalia – which are operated by Turkish operators, not Somalis – but they've been useful in the conflict against Al-Shabaab," explains analyst Ricklefs. "I know Turkey has a good relationship with Ethiopia. It has a good relationship with Somalia. So its presence in Somalia is more likely than not – given Turkey's broader strategic aims in the region – to have a stabilising effect rather than a destabilising effect," he argues. Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force...

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is leading a battle to regain control of Istanbul in hotly contested local elections this month. However, opposition media is warning about deepfake videos in campaign ads, while international rights groups are voicing alarm over social media companies' willingness to comply with Turkish censorship ahead of the critical polls. Polls show the elections are going to be a tight contest. But as Erdogan's AK Party steps up efforts to regain control of Istanbul, an artificial intelligence-generated video of incumbent mayor Ekrem Imamoglu praising Erdogan for his achievements in Istanbul has been circulating on social media. Independent media warn of the threat of fake news, as mainstream media, which is mostly under government control, are not verifying the authenticity of the videos. Deepfake videos "Deepfake videos are usually not posted on news sites, but they reach millions of people as advertisements. These stick to the candidate." explains Hikmet Adal , social media editor at Bianet, an independent news portal. "The voting segment in Turkey is 40 million. When you ask people if Ekrem Imamoglu actually said this, they will say 'he did' because they only follow the mainstream media," added Adal. During last year's presidential elections, Erdogan used a video falsely showing his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu with leaders of the Kurdish separatist group the PKK, which is fighting the Turkish government. Yaman Akdeniz of Turkey's Freedom of Expression Association fears more fake news videos will appear as election day draws closer. "We will witness more of these leading into the local elections, which is of course a major concern," warns Akdeniz, "And there were some examples of that prior to the May 2023 general elections. A photo of the opposition leader came out with PKK leaders. Even the president of Turkey commented , saying that he knows that it is fake, but they still used it." Turkey's small independent media sector, which is crucial to the exposing of fake news is facing increasing pressure from Turkish authorities. Much of their news is blocked on social media. "What we've seen is that very, very often material, mainly news on social media, is removed and blocked online," explains Emma Sinclair-Webb senior Turkey researcher of Human Rights Watch. Call for action Human Rights Watch was among 22 international rights groups calling on social media companies to stand up to Turkish authorities' demands for removal of postings. "It's very concerning to see that authorities are willing to clamp down on free speech, but social media companies themselves are not robust enough to stand up to this pressure," added Sinclair-Webb, "We want them to be more transparent and to work together in raising concerns about requests by Turkey to block content that is clearly within the boundaries of freedom of expression and also to contest others in court in Turkey. " Turkey's presidential challenger faces uphill battle to unite oppositionVolunteer army of election monitors prepare to protect Turkey's voteA growing number of prosecutions of independent media under a new disinformation law adds to the pressures they face. Many Turks are now turning to international news platforms. But Turkish authorities are blocking internet access to foreign news sources which broadcast in Turkish like Deutsche Welle and Voice of America. These portals are only accessible by a virtual private network, or VPN, which circumvents the ban. But now, some of the most widely used VPNs also face restrictions. Attack on football referee exposes anti-elite resentment in divided Turkey "Restricting access to the internet has become a sort of playbook for regimes and authoritarian governments. And so we see across the world an increase in VPN usage, especially in countries like this, like Turkey," said Antonio Cesarano of Proton, a VPN provider. "It's a cat-and-mouse game. We will try our best to keep fighting and...

Turkey and Italy are finding common ground as they seek to expand their economic and diplomatic influence in Africa. The two nations are eyeing opportunities to cooperate on security, energy and migration as France's traditional influence on the continent wanes. This month, Somalia's parliament ratified an agreement with Turkey to provide naval protection and assistance in building a Somali navy, another step in Turkey's efforts to expand its African presence. "With this pact, Turkey will protect the Somali coast from pirates, terrorists – anyone that violates our maritime borders, like Ethiopia," declared Abdifatah Kasim, Somalia's deputy defence minister. The defence deal was followed by a bilateral agreement on energy exploration in Somalia. Ankara's growing influence in the region was underscored by a strong African presence at Turkey's annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum, with seven African heads of state, seven prime ministers and 25 foreign ministers in attendance. In January, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosted African leaders at a summit in Rome, where she unveiled plans to expand Italy's influence on the continent. "Our future inevitably depends on the future of the African continent. We are aware of this, and we want to do our part," Meloni declared. "That's why we have decided to launch an ambitious programme of interventions that can help the continent grow and prosper, starting from its immense resources." Italy targets energy, migration with 'non-predatory' plan for AfricaCommon ground in Libya Analysts say both countries are considering cooperating as a means of achieving their Africa goals. "Italy is trying to fulfil a position that Western countries in some way left over the last decades, while Turkey has already been in Africa and in sub-Saharan Africa," observes Alessia Chiriatti of the Institute of International Affairs, an Italian think tank. "The main issues for confrontation or cooperation – we will see – will be migration, energy issues, and, of course, the economic development of these countries," she says. Also in January, Meloni met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul. The meeting included talks on Africa, with a focus on cooperation in Libya – a country where experts say Ankara has considerable influence, including a military base. The North African nation is a main transit route for migrants seeking to enter Europe, mainly through Italy. Tunisia brush-off augurs badly for EU push for African migration dealsItaly, France and other European countries see that as a "huge threat", according to Elem Eyrice-Tepeciklioglu of the African Studies Department at Ankara's Social Sciences University. "So there is room to cooperate in this area and to prevent the illegal flow of migrants, and cooperate in the security area as well." On Tuesday, the Italian and Turkish defence ministers held talks in Ankara. Exploiting Libya's vast energy reserves is also potential common ground. France on the outs Meanwhile the recent ousting of regimes sympathetic to France in Niger, Mali and Gabon – and with it, the withdrawal of French forces – has severely weakened France's historical political and economic influence in West Africa. That offers an opportunity to Italy and Turkey. "Italy could have an important cooperation with Turkey in order to take advantage of the position left aside by some countries like France, like Germany, like the other Western countries in Africa," says analyst Chiriatti. "But it will also depend on the bilateral agenda and bilateral interests expressed by Turkey and Italy," she adds. "That's not always the same. So in this sense, we need to see what will happen in the future step by step." Newly reconciled, Turkey and Egypt could be a force for stability in AfricaBusiness opportunities Chiriatti warns that cooperation can easily turn into rivalry in business. But Africa's vast economic potential is seen as offering plenty of room for partnership. "There...

Heavily armed police are protecting churches across Istanbul day and night after an Islamic State attack on a Catholic church in Istanbul. The terrorist group has warned of further attacks against Christians and Jews. Turkish security forces have detained hundreds of suspects in the aftermath of January's deadly attack on Santa Maria Catholic Church in the Sariyer district, which killed one person. The death toll could have been considerably higher if the gunmen's automatic weapons had not jammed. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility in a statement that warned it was targeting Jews and Christians in Turkey. Istanbul's small Christian community, although fearful, remains defiant. "It's not necessary to be a member of the congregation to be frightened. It's something that would terrify anyone," declared Ilhan Guzelis after attending his local church service. "We're scared, but believe me, we've never hesitated to come to our church, to worship here, and to pray to God." Game of cat and mouse Two men, a Russian and a Tajik national, have been arrested for carrying out the attack, while over a hundred others have been detained across the country. Experts say Turkish security forces are now engaged in a deadly cat-and-mouse game with the terror group also known as Isis or Daesh. "This is a mutual competition between the security forces and terrorist cells," Murat Aslan of the Ankara-based Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (Seta) told RFI. "Both sides will try to identify or deceive each other. And in this case, I believe the Daesh terrorists were skilful, at least to bypass the security measures." Aslan warns the job is becoming harder for Turkey's security forces as the face of Islamic State evolves. He cites changes to assailants' personal appearance, for example: recent attackers have worn regular clothes and shaved their beards, which helps them blend into a crowd. "They are regular citizens. So it's not that much easier to distinguish exactly who is radical or not, for instance. In the latest incident in the church, the individuals were like regular citizens," he said. Turkish targets Adding to security woes is the proximity of Turkey to Syrian territory once held by Islamic State and other radical jihadist groups. "There are armed groups in Turkey. They still have baggage in Turkey, the remnants of the armed groups inside Turkey, even Isis remnants back from the Syrian war," claims Sezin Oney of the Politikyol news portal. The last time Islamic State successfully carried out a major attack in Turkey was in 2017, when a gunman went on the rampage during New Year celebrations, killing 39 people at an Istanbul nightclub. But Aslan warns that Turkey offers numerous targets. "The church attack was really significant in terms of the potential of Daesh," he says. "Turkey hosts a lot of churches and Jewish holy sites. Once [terrorists] enjoy a presence here and set up hidden cells, they can easily select a target." Fears for tourist season With Turkey's lucrative tourism season only a month or so away, bringing with it further potential targets for Islamic State, the government security crackdown is predicted to intensify. Christians like Guzelis have mixed feelings over the presence of such patrols around the city's churches. "After such an incident, it is good for us that [the police] come here to protect us here again, even as a presence; we are grateful for this," he says. "I wish that there would be no such matters, that everyone would live together here as brothers and sisters. But we are sorry for what happened; it creates a bitterness in us." Read also: As Turkey bombards Kurdish forces in Syria, is the US preparing to pull out?With spy raids, Turkey warns Israel not to seek Hamas revenge on Turkish soil